Rudin Weekly

Super Bowl - NY/Pats The Remix

2012-02-05T05:48:57Z

I have gone back and forth on this game since the teams were decided close to two weeks ago. My eyes tell me that the Giants should be favored solely because they're the one team in this game that has a semblance of a defense. I just see Brady running for his life, throwing off target like he has been and the Patriots' defense being shredded. Then I think a little more, think back to Eli Manning on his back six times against the 49ers, picture Belichick watching tape for 27 hours a day and see Vince Wilfork flattening Eli like Vince was Yokozuna and Eli was Bret Hart (bonus points to the WWF fans who get that reference).

Basically, what I'm telling you, is that you should ignore this entire column save for my over/under analysis, because I have no analysis for the game. Really, I'm going to save you some fake analysis and just give you the couple of reasons I'm taking New England. Belichick/Brady, MHK, revenge, and that's about it. I see the Patriots scheming in a bend but don't break sort of way and holding Eli to field goals when the Giants should be getting touchdowns. The Giants will dominate much of the game. The Patriots will come back, and they will win at the end, covering the spread at the same time.

Note: The real reason I'm taking the Pats? Vegas. Everybody is taking the Giants. The entire country is betting on the Giants, and the line has stayed at Pats by 2.5 for over a week now despite opening at Pats by 3.5. That is very scary for Vegas if they didn't see the Pats covering the original 3.5 point spread. I'm going to go with a guy like Steve Wynn, who can accidentally poke his finger through a $40M Picasso and have an "oops, my bad" type of reaction. Yeah, I'm going with the Pats.

As for the bet I have some semblance of confidence in, it's the over/under. Go look at any "Experts Picks" section be it on ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, Fox, whatever. At least 90% of those scores yield an under bet. The line opened at 55.5 and is down to 54. I'm telling you, everybody is on the under. I'm not. We all know that the Patriots aren't stopping the Giants. As I said above, the Pats will hold the Giants to field goals, sometimes. The Patriots on the other hand, contrary to popular opinion, will be going no huddle, dinking and dunking, and doing any other of a hundred things to keep the Giants front four off guard. Brady will be a technician. He will dictate the tempo. Gisele's prayers and those of her friends will be answered. Brady is the MVP. Patriots 38 - Giants 34. Book it. Well, at least the over.

2012 - A Great Year is Ahead

2012-01-07T06:56:48Z

I decided that after ending 2011 with a depressing look back at the Penn State atrocity, how about I give you the top 10 reasons why 2012 will be awesome? Sound good? Perfect, let's do it.

But before we get there, a special shout out to Bobby R. for writing in to call the Broncos to win the AFC West at 50 to 1. Well done sir. Well done.

Ok, the list:

10. 2012 Summer Olympics

I love the Olympics. I love any reason to be patriotic. The World Cup is my favorite sporting event but the Olympics are great as well. Remember the country hanging out in sports bars at midnight to watch Michael Phelps swim a few years ago? Yes, we waited up til midnight to watch a guy swim. There's just something about that U.S.A. chant. Who will it be this year? Who knows? (Sorry Michael Phelps, it's not going to be you. It turns out you're a complete tool and we just hadn't figured it out yet) And the best part is, even if we don't find someone to rally around this year, we can just adopt Usain Bolt. How can you not love this guy? So it's either U.S.A. chant or the Usain Bolt chest pound, or both!

9. FC Barcelona

This may be the best soccer team put together in my lifetime, and I don't mean up until this point. Lionel Messi, Andres Iniesta, Xavi Hernandez, David Villa, and Francesc Fabregas are all in the Top 20 Players in the World, with Messi a clear #1. Yes, half of Barcelona's starting field players are in the top 20 players in the world. And their goalie is top 5. Watching Barcelona play is like watching live art. I'm looking forward to another year of watching the magicians in red and blue.

8. March Madness

You need an explanation here?

7. The Situation Gets Into a Fight and Decides to Give Himself a Concussion by Voluntarily Running Into a Wall

Yes, I know this happened last year, but here's hoping it happens again.

6. 2012 Football Playoffs

How awesome are these next four weeks going to be? The Tim Tebow show (for one week) followed by Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady all clicking and clicking on all cylinders. There's a ton I could say here, but with Pittsburgh hobbled, I am very excited for the 41-38 Super Bowl between New England and the New Orleans/Green Bay winner. Aren't you?

5. LSU vs. Alabama for the 2012 BCS Championship

Just kidding. It's the BCS, had to throw a little negativity in there just to keep you on your toes.

5. The Return of the Boys in Blue

This should really be my #1 but I was too excited about it to wait. NO MORE FRANK MCCOURT!!! WOO HOO!!! If Mark Cuban buys the team I may have the sports equivalent of an orgasm, or an actual orgasm, who knows? All I know is, it will be fun again to be at Chavez Ravine. I have never seen Dodger Stadium as dead as it was this past year. Dodger fans united in boycotting McCourt. Now that he'll be gone, it will be 3,000,000 fans again this year and a great atmosphere (minus the gang fights). Please Mark Cuban. Please! Either way though, it'll be great.

4. The Masters

For those who didn't watch Tiger at his tournament at Sherwood, let me fill you in . . . he's baaaaaack. I love golf and I will always love watching The Masters. Heck, my favorite yearly sporting experience is going with my Dad to watch the pros live at Riviera every February. But golf with Tiger in contention? High drama. He's golf's Kobe now. He will elicit all sorts of reactions but when he's in contention, it's compelling.

3. Floyd Mayweather, Jr. vs. Manny Pacquiao

We can all hope for this generation's Hagler/Hearns. Will it happen? 1 in 4. But if it does, it will be the fight of my generation. Everybody will be watching. Everybody will be talking about it. And then . . . Floyd will win unanimously as Manny will get flustered and go 12 rounds without solving Floyd's defense, like everybody else before him. On the bright side, Floyd's out of jail until June. Who's the judge? The BCS or NCAA commissioner?

2. Caprice Bourret Tells the World She's Looking for a Vertically Challenged Guy With Glasses Who Writes for a Site Called Rudin Weekly

Google her. You'll see.

1. The NBA Finals

I don't know if they'll top last year, but the playoffs will be must see TV again this season. Charles Barkley and the TNT crew will lead us from the regular season and drop us off at the Finals. And then it will begin. The annual LeBron collapse. This year's beneficiaries? Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder. This will be the year of Durant. That three pointer to win against Dallas was only the beginning. I've been saying it for a while but I think Durant will be the best player in the NBA very soon. I know you want me to say Kobe and the Lakers will be there, but, they won't. Western Conference Semi-Finals (sorry Clippers fans, you're not getting there, just like the Knicks aren't getting there in the east). No, the Lakers will hopefully pick up the pieces of the broken Nets/Magic Dwight Howard trade. I'd give Bynum and Gasol to them in a second. So that's what I'm looking forward to. Thunder over Heat in 6 and Dwight and Kobe in 2012-2013.

Note: In case you were wondering, I have Houston, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and the Giants. In the next round I'll have the Patriots, Ravens, Packers, and Saints. Patriots over Ravens. Saints over Packers. Saints 41. Patriots 38. Happy New Year.

A Story to Forget

2012-01-01T01:26:58Z

I wish I didn't agree with Yahoo Sports. I wish I remembered this past year as the year where an athlete with one leg won an NCAA Championship in wrestling, or as the year where Dirk, Kidd, Terry, and Marion took down the Heatles, or even as the year of Tebow! But no, this year will go down as the year of the Penn State scandal. If there's any story that stays with you, it's that one, and how can it not?

Now much has been written and discussed on this atrocity and scandal that continues to unfold, but I saw this as yet another effect of the gargantuan that is NCAA athletics. Child molestation is prevalent in society. It's as simple as that unfortunately. Even if the right thing was done in the Penn State case, at least one child would still have been victimized and tortured for life. But the right thing was not done. Penn State coaches and administrators chose the dollars of college football over protecting children from a rapist.

I was with everyone else on this one. I went from trying to believe Joe Pa was innocent to being shocked that he harbored a child molester, to appalled at the Penn State students rallying around a football coach and team rather than condemning a culture that shielded a molester's crimes from coming to light. But my range of emotions did not stop there. Eventually I went to being resigned to an understanding that the NCAA is more concerned with dollars and cents than the morality and rules they claim to live by.

The NCAA has created a culture where it's okay to do what Penn State did. My favorite argument besides that of preserving "amateur athleticism" is that of wanting to preserve tradition. Really? Maybe I forgot the tradition where schools bolt their conferences to chase television money. Response from the NCAA . . . radio silence. Maybe that doesn't fit into this column but it's just another in the laundry list of complaints I have for the monster that is the NCAA. A coach wants to leave his school, and contract, to go to another school? Fine. A kid wants to leave Tennessee to go play for Michigan or Michigan State because his father in Detroit has suffered a series of heart attacks among other issues from diabetes? No go. Tennessee mandated that he plays for Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, or the Mud Dogs with Bobby Boucher. Response from NCAA . . . more radio silence. Kids exchanging memorabilia and autographs for tattoos? Massive investigation. Immediate response with suspensions doled out. Well, not really immediate. Those suspensions were served after the Sugar Bowl so the money could get doled out. Lesson learned. Massive cover-up of child rape and molestation by the university administrators where the perp was a football coach? Hmm. NCAA response . . . well, maybe we should look into this, but we're going to let the case play out in court first. HUH?!

CHILD RAPE. Please look at those words in all caps. Maybe it will sink in because it sure hasn't for the powers that be at the NCAA. The rapist was a coach for Penn State football. The administrators knew about it and buried it. The head coach knew about it and did nothing. For 10 years. If there was ever a case for the NCAA death penalty, how was this not it? No, we're worried about tattoos and money changing hands, because that's what's wrong with college athletics. Please.

And here's where I wasn't the least bit surprised. The Penn State officials knew that if word leaked that their assistant football coach was a child rapist that it would kill recruiting in the short run. There would be massive backlash. The "how could this happen" people would be out in full force, as well they should. The team would start losing and the money being brought in would go the way of the NYSE in '08. But like the NYSE, the Penn State program would have rebounded. There's no keeping down a big time college football program (unless you're SMU). If Joe Paterno had followed up and made sure the police had been involved countless numbers of kids would have been saved. If the administrators had involved the police, countless numbers of kids would have been saved. If anyone made sure that Sandusky wasn't allowed within a football field's distance of a kid, well, you get the idea. But those things didn't happen. A college's image was at stake. BCS money was at stake. A coach of all coach's legacy was at stake. And all of those took precedence over the lives of children in the community. The NCAA remains silent.

Congratulations NCAA. You've still got your fairy tale of amateur athleticism and all the money it generates. Unfortunately your ways of dealing with the culture it has created has now made sure that countless numbers of children will live with nightmares for the rest of their lives. Sleep well NCAA.

Sorry to end the year with that. I wish you all a Happy New Year and health and happiness in 2012. On to the football picks. Let's crack 50% for the season!

WEEK 17 PICKS

Washington +8 at Philadelphia
St. Louis +10.5 vs. San Francisco
Minnesota -1.5 vs. Chicago
Detroit -4.5 at Green Bay
New Orleans -7.5 vs. Carolina
Tennessee -1.5 at Houston
Indianapolis +3.5 at Jacksonville
Miami -3 vs. New York Jets
Buffalo +10.5 at New England
Atlanta -10.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Cincinnati +2 vs. Baltimore
Cleveland +6.5 vs. Pittsburgh
Oakland -3 vs. San Diego
Denver -3 vs. Kansas City
Seattle +3 at Arizona
Dallas +3 at New York Giants

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 116-115-9

2011 RW Awards

2011-12-23T00:33:26Z

In lieu of spending a ton of money on renting out the Kodak Theater and inviting a bunch of sports stars and celebrities who wouldn't show up, how about we hand out the 2011 RW Awards over the Internet? Sound good? Thought so.

BASEBALL

Player of the Year

Justin Verlander. I know, I know, I should have given Matt Kemp his due here, especially after it looks as though my guy Ryan Braun may have been consuming more than the requisite amount of Matzah on Passover. But how can you deny Verlander here? I know he tailed off a little in the playoffs, but Kemp wasn't in the playoffs, Braun was on the non-kosher diet, and Pujols didn't have a great regular season. I'm going with Verlander. Every outing for him was a must-watch gem. He single-handedly made his team a scary team to face headed into the playoffs. We won't see another season like the one Verlander just had for a while.

Game of the Year

Do we really need to reference this? I allegedly had the Rangers at 15 to 1 to win the World Series and they get to within 1 strike of winning! 1 strike! That really was the game of the year. Damn it all.

Team of the Year

I never figured out the point of this category. That's why they have playoffs right? Let's reserve this category for college football coaches and writers.

BOXING

Boxing Fight of the Year

There were a few that could have made it here, but I always like choosing a noteworthy fight. I know what you're thinking, "that means he's going with Marquez/Pacquiao III." It was a definite contender as it was a long overdue rematch and a fight nobody thought Marquez could win. But everybody watched it in awe and the fight could have gone either way. That said, I'm going with Victor Ortiz' victory over Andre Berto. Talk about an action fight. There were about a million flurries and both fighters hit the canvas. Victor Ortiz outpointed Berto in my pick for Fight of the Year. Their rematch should be great.

Round of the Year

There isn't a second place. Go youtube Angulo/Kirkland Round 1 and then find me a better pick.

KO of the Year

Floyd Mayweather over Victor Ortiz. I'm sure there were better KO's but not more exciting and inexplicable. I haven't watched a fight in a long time that made me yell in astonishment . . . for about four straight hours. As Jim Nantz would say, "what a moment!"

Fighter of the Year

I guess Andre Ward has to be the pick, right? Pacquiao was unimpressive. Floyd ends the year with a guilty plea and a 90-day jail sentence. Sergio Martinez didn't get to fight anyone. Ward was as good as it gets in a noteworthy tournament in the 168-pound division. Now, will he fight Bute?

GOLF

Golfer of the Year

Sorry golf fans. Golf gets only one category. What, you want putt of the year as a category? And I love golf. That said, have to go with Bill Haas. Talk about having ice run through the veins. I know he didn't win a major, but watching him down the stretch to win the FedEx Cup and the $10M that came with it was exhilirating. A great finish to a great year for Mr. Haas.

SOCCER

Player of the Year

We are all lucky to have the priviledge of watching Lionel Messi in his prime. That is all I have to say about that.

Team of the Year

At least in soccer it makes sense to have this award. There are multiple clubs in multiple countries. I know, there's the Champions League. But some teams aren't great teams that happen to be wired for the home/home format. Witness Liverpool for about a decade. But for now, Barcelona dominates in all formats. It is like watching live art every time they take the pitch. Xavi and Iniesta are magicians in the midfield and they have weapons everywhere on the field. Messi and Villa up top? Come on. The best team I have seen in my lifetime.

FOODTBALL

Player of the Year

I know, I know, the season isn't over yet. And no, I'm not going to make this last year's pick. Who even remembers last season? So, for player of the year, I'm going with . . . TEBOW! Just kidding, I wanted to see faithful reader, Allyson from N.Y.'s head explode. No, this award is going to Aaron Rodgers by a slim margin over Tom Brady and Ndamukong Suh's future therapist who already worked wonders with Metta World Peace. Aaron Rodgers won me over for this award with the game-winning drive against the Giants. Never have I seen a clutch drive from a QB look so effortless. And that's the way Rodgers plays the game (unless his line falls apart again).

Game of the Year

Every Tebow comeback. Done and done.

Tebow's Favorite Movie Character

Jesus Shuttlesworth from He Got Game. That was too easy.

BASKETBALL

Player of the Year

You just can't go with anyone over Derrick Rose. And what's great is that he is a hometown guy who seems to be one of the genuine good guys. He stayed loyal, does things the right way, basically, everything LeBron's PR people would recommend only the exact opposite.

Game of the Year

Game 6 of the NBA Finals. The game where the Heat were eliminated. It didn't get any better than that, unless you hate puppies and apple pie that is. In all seriousness though, that was one of the greatest NBA Finals I've seen in my lifetime. The ebb and flow, the LeBron and Dwyane making fun of Dirk's flu, the Jet and his tattoo, the revenge of Dirk, Chris Bosh looking like an Avatar. It was all great.

Dunk of the Year

Blake Griffin over Timofey Mozgov with the U.S.' greatest statement over Russia since the Miracle on Ice.

ATHLETE OF THE YEAR

This one was open to athletes in all sports. I almost went with Abby Wambach here but the U.S. couldn't get it done. I thought about Derrick Rose, but he's not quite there yet. No, this award goes to Lionel Messi. There is nobody who performs at his level against elite competition the way he does. You could argue for Aaron Rodgers here, but I just can't give it to a QB with all of the advantages QB's have right now. Look at the number elite QB's are throwing up across the board. No, no Rodgers for me as Athlete of the Year. Give me the little lion known as Messi.

(Note: Sorry, but I decided to exclude college this year because it's too painful as a Bruin and the BCS ruins everything, and sorry to hockey, but I'm no longer qualified there.)

WEEK 16 PICKS

Indianapolis +7 vs. Houston
Cincinnati -4 vs. Arizona
Denver -2.5 at Buffalo
New York Giants +3 at New York Jets
Tennessee -7.5 vs. Jacksonville
Miami +10 at New England
Baltimore -13 vs. Cleveland
Oakland +1 at Kansas City
Minnesota +6.5 at Washington
Tampa Bay +7.5 at Carolina
St. Louis +14 at Pittsburgh
Detroit -2 vs. San Diego
Dallas -1.5 vs. Philadelphia
San Francisco -1.5 at Seattle (stay away from this game)
Green Bay -13 vs. Chicago
New Orleans -6.5 vs. Atlanta

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 106-109-9

Random Thoughts on a Thursday Morning

2011-12-16T00:28:19Z

I was all set to write a scathing column on the NBA after this CP3 debacle. It isn't that I wanted the Lakers to execute the trade on the table, it was that the NBA had no right to squash that trade. And for CP3 to go to the team whose owner happens to lead the NBA in slum lord and discrimination suits only adds to the ridiculousness of the whole situation. But instead, we're going with random thoughts because my sister, Lauren, asked for them. She's had a tough week so we'll indulge her. Here we go into the landfills that exist in my head.

First and foremost, we need to creat a new circle of hell. I've read Dante's Inferno, in English and Italian actually, and nowhere in it is there a special circle of hell for people who drive 65 mpg in the fast lane on the freeway. These people need to be shot on sight, I feel that strongly about it. I was stuck on the freeway behind cars in the left two lanes drag racing at about 63 mph. Nothing deterred them. To the 10th circle of hell they go.

Angels fans may no longer say a bad thing about the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Angels are the Evil Empire of the west coast. So now that they have a marketable team, can we please stop pretending they play in Los Angeles?

The day the Angels signed Pujols, there was a rumor involving the Dodgers and Dana Eveland. Goody goody gumdrops.

Is it just me or will all Lakers fans forget about the debacle that was the Odom/Bynum/Gasol trade wind talks if the Lakers sign Dwight Howard? I know I'll forget about it. Bring on Superman, let Kobe go out to pasture in a couple of years and then sign Marquee PG _________ (John Wall maybe? One can only hope).

I love how everybody is so quick to demonize Reeves Nelson without once asking why so many players either transfer or quit under Ben Howland. You know what team's better than UCLA? The one you could comprise of those players who have been kicked off or left.

Jim Mora Jr. was a great signing, now we just need to fire Dan Guerrero.

The Ryan Braun news has saddened Jews everywhere.

The Knicks would be awesome if you didn't need guards or passing to play basketball.

Okay, if you're not a Tebow believer yet, there's something wrong with you. I can't remember the anticipation and excitement like that surrounding a Denver drive in the last 5 minutes for the past several weeks. All announcers can do is chuckle at this point. As for me, I just get excited when Tebow starts doing Tebow things. You know, like running around, stiff arming linebackers and then throwing to a receiver while he's falling down. That sort of thing.

I wonder if Kobe is going to bitch slap Jim Buss at some point.

John Elway is like the owner in The Natural, not the one in Any Given Sunday. Get it right. The judges will also accept: The owner from Major League.

Which will produce a higher score, UNC vs. Duke in basketball or the NFC Championship between Green Bay and New Orleans?

Can Barbara Walters really have a list of most interesting people without a single interesting person on the list? I'm confused. So is Kim Kardashian, but she's always confused.

Who is more emasculated at this point, Kris Humphries or Hulk Hogan?

Barcelona proved once again in the Clasico that it is far and away the best soccer team in the world. They are too fun to watch although losing David Villa to a broken leg is bad for everybody involved.

I miss Rick Perry and Herman Cain. They're way better for late night than Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.

How do you come up with the name Mitt?

Is his middle name Oven? Catcher's? Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all night. Wait, I just realized his first name is Mitt and that this now makes no sense. Damn it.

Sam Hurd apparently watched American Gangster as a How To film. On the bright side, we now know who the Cincinnati Bengals were hanging out with during the off-season.

I'm glad to have the Tiger Fist Pump back in my life. It's much better than the Elin Golf Club Swing.

How many women has Derek Jeter not slept with? It has to be easier than counting the other way around.

Is Albert Pujols' wife really trying to make us feel bad that her husband was offered a 5-year contract worth 9-figures plus as a starting offer? Wrong economy for that sympathy card.

The NFL is trying to rival the NBA for most transparent group of owners and administrators. How is James Harrison suspended within a few days for a boom boom hit, yet the Browns put Colt McCoy back into the game thinking he's Batman after two plays and everybody's waiting until this is forgotten about so the Browns don't have to be punished? Safety first, unless it's a team that's being punished as opposed to the players. Got it.

On the bright side, I now have more faith in the L.A. Clippers management than I do in Congress. Ponder that one for a moment. Scary.

Tebow for President. G-d bless.

WEEK 15 PICKS

Atlanta -13.5 vs. Jacksonville
Dallas -7 at Tampa Bay
Green Bay -13.5 at Kansas City
Seattle +3.5 at Chicago
Cincinnati -6.5 at St. Louis
Tennessee -6.5 at Indianapolis
Miami -1.5 at Buffalo
Houston -6 vs. Carolina
Washington +7 at New York Giants
New Orleans -6.5 at Minnesota
Oakland even vs. Detroit
Arizona -6.5 vs. Cleveland
New Jork Jets +3 at Philadelphia
Denver +7 vs. New England . . . TEBOW!!!
Baltimore -1.5 at San Diego
Pittsburgh +2.5 at San Francisco

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 99-100-9

NFL Power Rankings - Week 14

2011-12-09T01:42:04Z

I was going to do a column entitled, "Who is the d-bag on my floor at work who consistently clogs the toilet and/or doesn't flush?" However, for your benefit I decided against it.

Quick note before the power rankings for those inquiring about my race against my sister: I knew my only chance was to get in her head and make her run a mile she didn't want to run. I figured she would be running around a 7-minute mile and I could run something much slower, so I took us out in a 1:30 first 400 meters or a 6:00 pace. Mission accomplished. She told me afterward that she was quite nervous at that point. Mission not accomplished. She was only two steps behind me. She then took the lead and I trailed her by a step after a half mile at 3:35. We did the race at UCLA's Drake Stadium and the 1-4 lanes were closed, so the mile race was actually closer to 1.1 miles. Anyhow, a quarter of the way through the third lap I started to die, then my back spasmed, then I collapsed. DNF. So the lesson as always, don't race your in-shape sister when you are woefully out of shape and have back and foot problems. Of course, after hearing about this, my roommate who played WR in college but had ACL surgery wants to race me but will give me a 1/4 mile head start. Results pending. I'll keep you posted.

Further note: I used to be a good athlete. I swear.

On to the rankings:

32. Indianapolis Colts (0-16)

Yes, 0-16. They're clearly not winning a game. And it doesn't seem like they care. Hey, Dwight Freeney, if you're so enraged at someone naming Peyton Manning MVP, why don't you get some of your teammates to play like they care too? I've never seen a team likely to go winless get less publicity for doing so. #Suckforluck.

31. St. Louis Rams (2-10)

Quick, raise your hand if you recommended that people take the Rams to win the division at +350. I'm sorry.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)

Sorry, Jacksonville, it's too late to turn back time and get Tebow and you weren't quite bad enough to get Andrew Luck. Oh well, you'll be the Los Angeles El Ninos in three years anyway.

29. Cleveland Browns (4-8)

Wow, that offense is really bad. Pittsburgh can't be favored by enough tonight.

28. Minnesota Vikings (2-10)

The most fun to watch 2-10 team I've ever seen. I'm not kidding. I really like Minnesota. Another high draft pick could put them into the playoffs within a couple years given the talent on that squad.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8)

Josh Freeman and his 4th quarter comebacks seem like forever and a day ago.

26. Washington Redskins (4-8)

Who's worse at spending money, the Redskins, the Baltimore Orioles, or the government?

25. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8)

It is unbelievable how bad they are given the hype. But you know what they say, if you give a $100M contract to a convicted dog killer . . . sorry, I lost my train of thought, but yeah, the Eagles are bad. At least people in Philadelphia handle these things well.

24. Carolina Panthers (4-8)

Cam Newton is fun to watch and has reinvigorated Steve Smith, but the Panthers are still far from being good.

23. Kansas City Chiefs (5-7)

Tyler Palko is no Shane Falco. Hey, that rhymes!

22. Arizona Cardinals (5-7)

Nice work with that contract extension to Kevin Kolb.

21. Buffalo Bills (5-7)

Speaking of horrible extensions to quarterbacks . . . Ryan Fitzpatrick!

20. San Diego Chargers (5-7)

The Chargers are not coming on strong. They got to play the Jaguars. There is a difference.

19. Miami Dolphins (4-8)

How do you go from being the front runner for Andrew Luck to a team nobody wants to face at the drop of a hat? I don't get it.

18. Seattle Seahawks (5-7)

Marshawn Lynch is a beast. That's about all the good news you have as a Seahawks fan outside of home field advantage.

17. Chicago Bears (7-5)

Maybe you should have a backup plan for the most important position in football. Just a thought for next time.

16. Oakland Raiders (7-5)

I have zero faith in them going forward, especially without McFadden.

15. New York Giants (6-6)

It's Tom Coughlin Red Face time! While that is fun, the Eli Manning face is far superior. Coughlin has some catching up to do.

14. Detroit Lions (7-5)

They're about as disciplined as a room full of kindgergarteners the second someone comes into a quiet room and yells, "COOKIES!"

13. Tennessee Titans (7-5)

They are the definition of a mediocre team although it is fun to watch them now that someone woke Chris Johnson up from his hybernation.

12. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)

You know what you're getting from them. They won't beat a solid team and they'll take care of business for the most part in every other game. The Andy Dalton pick keeps getting smarter by the week.

11. New York Jets (7-5)

If they can get back to running the ball and turn Mark Sanchez into Trent Dilfer 2.0, then they have a chance.

10. Houston Texans (9-3)

Pardon me if I'm not buying into the T.J. Yates era. I'm not even sure if that's his first name but it's not worth looking up the third string quarterback's first name.

9. Denver Broncos (7-5)

Wait for it . . . TEBOW!!!!!!!

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-5)

Notwithstanding this past week's performance, Atlanta seems to be playing well at the right time, and if Julio Jones holds onto that ball last week, well . . .

7. Dallas Cowboys (7-5)

I don't care what the talking heads are saying. He iced his own kicker! How do you do that?

6. San Francisco 49ers (10-2)

It's still Alex Smith. I can't bring myself this close to the playoffs to pick the 49ers over any of the teams listed below.

5. New Orleans Saints (9-3)

If the Saints can turn every game into a shootout, they're your Super Bowl champions. If not, that defense is more than suspect.

4. New England Patriots (9-3)

See comment for New Orleans Saints above. I know, two teams are not allowed to win the Super Bowl in the same season.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)

They're getting healthy. James Harrison looks like a beast again. I'm liking my Super Bowl pick.

2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)

How much do you trust Joe Flacco and the aging defense going forward into the playoffs? A serious question that will be answered in due course.

1. Green Bay Packers (12-0)

Nothing really to say here. 12-0.

WEEK 14 PICKS

Pittsburgh -14 vs. Cleveland
Indianapolis +16.5 at Baltimore
New York Jets -10.5 vs. Kansas City
Minnesota +10 at Detroit
Washington +9 vs. New England
New Orleans -3.5 at Tennessee
Miami -3 vs. Philadelphia
Atlanta -3 at Carolina
Jacksonville +2 vs. Tampa Bay
Cincinnati -3 vs. Houston
San Francisco -4 at Arizona
Denver -3.5 vs. Chicago
Oakland +11 at Green Bay
San Diego -7.5 vs. Buffalo
Dallas -3 vs. New York Giants
St. Louis +6 at Seattle

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 91-92-9

NBA Lockout Summary

2011-12-01T00:09:12Z

***There is an addendum noted with a star for those who read this before 6:00 p.m. PST on 11/30/11***

The summary could be written in three words: The players lost.

That's it, that could be the whole column. Listening to Billy Hunter and his side following the settlement was borderline hysterical. I just hope nobody seriously believed a word they were saying. I mean really, when Adam Silver is saying that the NBA didn't get everything it wanted . . . yeah, the NBA got everything it wanted.

I know I touched on this before, but how did everyone not know we were going to get to this result? This was mangled by the players' representation from the get go. Why were Billy Hunter, Derek Fisher, and some NBA stars the main players in this, no pun intended, on the players' side? If this was a game of 21, fine. But in a negotiation for a $40 billion pie? Yes, $40 billion. 10 years, $4 billion per. And somehow Kevin Garnett yelling at a room full of geniuses with graduate degrees happened. Good job NBA Players Association. Well played.

To review:

1. Less money for the players.

2. Shorter contracts in terms of years for the players.

3. Luxury tax up. No, this does not encourage spending on players.

All of the other talk is really just smoke and mirrors. Let's put it this way, when would you have rather come into the league, now, or five years ago? I thought so.

I am not at all surprised we got here. I am surprised at the horrible negotiating employed by the players' side of the table.

The players had one and only one chip to play this entire time: Decertification. The owners were ready to sit on their hands until hell froze over, unless . . . unless they saw a three year legal battle looming, in an uncertain field like antitrust law, a field of law requiring very skilled legal minds. Do you know what happens when you require the help of very skilled legal minds for uncertain litigation that would carry on for a few years? You pay a fantastic sum of money. Then, if you lose, you are subject to treble damages (read 3x the amount claimed in damages). That is a lot of money and a whole lot of risk. Outside of that, what were the owners really worried about here? The owners were negotiating with a side where 60% of the people declare bankruptcy within 5 years of retirement. Yes, you read that correctly. 60% of NBA players declare bankruptcy within 5 years of retirement. So why on Earth were Billy Hunter and his buddies he was helping in charge of this? Why were NBA players anywhere near a negotiating table? Do you know why players have agents? To negotiate contracts. I am not saying the agents should have been the ones negotiating the CBA, but I would select them to go to bat for me before I'd let someone with zero college experience go in there and scream, someone who gets paid to feed off of emotion and yell uncontrollably to fire himself up. With every sentence I write I am more and more baffled at how these events transpired.

At the end of all this, the owners were presented with a well-laid out synopsis of the items that had been negotiated and settled. The players got a rah rah letter shorter than this column telling them about all that they had won. I don't know what to say about that. "Hey guys, congratuations! Less money! Shorter contracts! And it's nearly impossible to get any of the incentive money built in for the years following your rookie deal!" Ok, maybe that's not a direct quote, but you get the picture.

***Addendum***

Here's an actual quote for one of the "wins" the players got as taken from their letter from Billy Hunter:

“Max Salary: A player finishing his rookie scale contract will be eligible to receive a maximum salary equal to 30% of the Cap (up from 25%) if he signs with his prior team and is either: 1st, 2nd or 3rd team All-NBA 2 times; an All-Star starter 2 times; or 1-time MVP.”

Awesome! So all you have to do to qualify for the bump is, first, sign with your same team, second, be on the All-NBA team twice during your rookie contract/be an All-Star STARTER twice/win the NBA MVP award. That's it, that's all you have to do. So, the list of qualifiers includes Derrick Rose, Derrick Rose, and maybe Derrick Rose. Winning!

***End of addendum***

The players missed paychecks and got nothing in return. They went to bat to negotiate with expert negotiators, didn't hire anyone remotely qualified, played their one card four months too late, and then the expected is what transpired. This would be like the players going up against the owners in the afore-mentioned game of 21 for $40 billion with every point counting toward a portion of that $40 billion pie and having David Stern and Adam Silver getting to choose anyone in the world to play for them against Kobe and LeBron and choosing themselves. What is this the WWE? For the players, if only this were fake. I'm sick to my stomach . . . until opening day. On to the football picks.

WEEK 13 PICKS

Seattle +2.5 vs. Philadelphia
Indianapolis +21 at New England (very possible NE will be covering after 1.5 quarters)
Denver even at Minnesota (TEBOW!)
Buffalo -1 at Tennessee
Oakland +3 at Miami
New York Jets -3 at Washington
Atlanta -1.5 at Houston (sorry, I won't be at work this weekend, I'm playing QB for the Texans)
Kansas City +8 at Chicago
Tampa Bay -3 vs. Carolina
Cincinnati +7 at Pittsburgh
Cleveland +7 vs. Baltimore
San Francisco -13 vs. St. Louis
New York Giants +7 vs. Green Bay
Dallas -4.5 at Arizona
Detroit +9 at New Orleans
San Diego -1.5 at Jacksonville

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 83-84-9

Mailbag - RW Input Edition

2011-11-24T01:42:05Z

Ok, so this isn't a real mailbag, I am making up all of these questions. So basically, it's a lazy way to do a Random Thoughts without having to call it Random Thoughts. And when you think about it, mailbags really are lazy ways to bust out some material because you're making your readers do half of your work. Here are some questions I want to answer, Q&A style:

Q: Why is Thanksgiving your favorite holiday?

A: Family, food, and football. Next question.

Q: What will you be doing on Thanksgiving?

A: Very good question. In the morning I will be racing my little sister (age 23) in a mile long race. I have been talking a lot of trash even though I am about 92% out of shape and I am fairly confident she will be running a sub-7:00 mile. I have told her my strategy is to just tail her the entire time and then sprint past her at the end. Picture Seabiscuit vs. War Admiral. I will make sure to post my victory speech here. After that I will be watching football all day at my family's house. Then we will all have a family dinner at Lawry's, mostly because it is easier on everyone. Originially I didn't like the idea of going to a restaurant but the more I thought about it the more excited I got about not having to do my part in terms of preparation and clean-up. We're all winners here. Again, I love Thanksgiving.

Q: Why do you love Tebow so much?

A: A large part of my Tebow man crush stems from how much the "analysts" can't stand him. I really don't get the venom unleashed when Tebow comes up. As I've said, this guy can't get into trouble because he's too busy building homes for the homeless in third world countries. So what that he's doing it because he wants them all to be happy in their Christianity as he is. There are a lot worse things done by professional athletes than missionary trips and talking to prisoners. I also love Tebow because he's a fullback playing QB. It's sort of why I loved the 300 lb. QB that Kentucky had nicknamed the "Hefty Lefty." And finally, it is a LOT of fun to root for a guy despised by his management yet keeps winning and saying the right things week in and week out while they try and undercut and bury him.

Q: How much torture is it to watch UCLA basketball these days?

A: Next question.

Q: Will UCLA beat USC in the football game on Saturday and get a spot in the Pac-12 Championship or will it be Utah who gets to lose to Oregon by 35?

A: Next question.

Q: Were you upset that Matt Kemp was robbed of the MVP?

A: As a Dodgers fan I was pretty flabbergasted that Kemp didn't win. As a Jew . . . woo hoo! MVP! But in all seriousness, Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw were the only things that made Dodgers games fun this season. There were no fans but even in the last home game, which I went to, Dodgers fans were in a frenzy every time Kemp came up. When he homered, the MVP chant was even louder than I remember hearing it for Kobe in the past several years. Kemp lost the award because the Dodgers stunk and McCourt made Chavez Ravine into a place as cheery as a cemetary. I am very glad the Dodgers are keeping Kemp.

Q: What did you make of Tiger Woods in the Presidents Cup?

A: Wow, I can't believe Tiger's competitive fire is gone. I have never seen the "happy to be here" guy show up wearing a Tiger Woods costume before. Not even playing with Stevie's guy after Stevie's racist remarks could get Tiger's comptitive juices flowing. It's a shame. I was never the biggest Tiger fan (although I love his charity work), but I will miss having the old Tiger to watch.

Q: Are you still picking the Saints over the Steelers in the Super Bowl?

I can't jump ship just yet on the Saints. Things might be shaky without home field advantage in the NFC, but I still like them. As for the Steelers, book them in the Super Bowl. They will get healthy. They will get mean. They will get back to the big game.

Q: Did you watch the Galaxy win the MLS Cup?

A: Of course I did! I went with my sister and roommates to a sports bar to watched it and I even suffered through several jokes at my expense for wearing a David Beckham Galaxy jersey. The MLS has come a long way since I started going back in the early '90s to watch at the Rose Bowl. The players are better to the point where there's no way I could try out for a team and make it and there are enough foreign nationals attracted to the money being doled out where you get some star power (Beckham, Thierry Henry, etc.). This can only serve to help the U.S.' chances in the World Cups to come. Even ESPN and Fox are starting to show La Liga and English Premier League matches on top of already having shown the Champions League. Add to that how excited the country got last World Cup and I see only bright things in the future of soccer in the U.S. Plus, real men don't wear pads to play "football."

Q: Has your opinion on the NBA lockout changed at all?

A: Nope. I still can't understand how a bunch of billionaires waiting out guys living paycheck to paycheck (yes, I know they're large paychecks) are winning the PR battle. Seriously, I don't get it, almost as much as I don't get the Occupy ___________ movement. Someone's really going to have to sit down and explain the end game on that one too.

Q: Any hockey questions?

A: Not yet, maybe in the winter. But it is nice to see Sidney Crosby back in full force.

Q: What do you think of Black Friday starting at midnight?

A: I think everyone should agree to show up no earlier than 10 a.m. It is horrible that these entities are making their employees show up to work at 10 p.m. on Thanksgiving night.

Q: What's your favorite Thanksgiving dish?

A: Everything. Happy Thanksgiving everybody! Wish me luck in my big race.

WEEK 12 PICKS

Detroit +7 vs. Green Bay
Miami +7 at Dallas
San Francisco +3 at Baltimore
Cincinnati -7 vs. Cleveland
St. Louis -3 vs. Arizona
Minnesota +9.5 at Atlanta
Carolina -3.5 at Indianapolis
Tampa Bay +3 at Tennessee
Houston -4 at Jacksonville
Buffalo +8 at New York Jets
Oakland -4 vs. Chicago
Seattle -3.5 vs. Washington
New England -4 at Philadelphia
Denver +6 at San Diego (TEBOW!!!)
Pittsburgh -11 at Kansas City
New York Giants +7 at New Orleans

Last Week: 6-6-2
Season 76-75-9

No One Man Should Have All That Power

2011-11-17T16:24:20Z

Ok fine, the title of this one is from a Kanye West song. But when you're talking about a college basketball coach, who better to steal from than Kanye? (Yes, all of the little hints dropped there were on purpose)

I wasn't going to write my Fire Ben Howland column until I read Bill Dwyre's nausea inducing love letter to Coach Howland. Is Howland ghostwriting for Dwyre? In case you missed it, Dwyre's piece centered around the theory that we should all congratulate Ben Howland for doing the right thing and benching Reeves Nelson for conduct detrimental to the team. Guys doing the right thing like Howland need to be celebrated as vociferously as we condemn Paterno. Um, what?!

Yes, the problem with college sports is that the coaches aren't exerting enough influence over their players. The players and their egos have run amok and that's the problem that needs curing. Good for Ben Howland and his multi-million dollar contract standing up to Reeves Nelson, at best a six-figure player in Europe in a couple of years.

No, I wasn't going to write my Fire Ben Howland until I read all of that. I figured it was just being spoiled after the guy took the Bruins to three straight Final Fours from 2006-2008. Bill Dwyre, congratulations, you took me over the edge that even being there live to witness the Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee State losses couldn't accomplish.

So, now that I'm over the edge, yes, Ben Howland should be fired. Now. I was at the Middle Tennessee State game and it was the first time I had watched, in person, a team that had clearly given up on its team. The Bruins weren't rebounding. Fine. They looked stagnant on offense. Seen that before. But defensively? 71% given up to MTSU? The Bruins defenders rotated on defense maybe a half dozen times. The effort was less than zero. I thought about it and was trying to come up with, why now? And then I thought about Reeves Nelson. Sorry Mr. Dwyre, but Ben Howland wasn't trying to teach a lesson, he was trying to show everybody who's boss. He was trying to reinforce what everybody already knows. When it comes to college basketball, there isn't one athlete more famous or indispensable than his coach. In fact, is there an athlete in college basketball or football more famous than his coach outside of Andrew Luck? Quick, name Duke's starting five. I'll wait. And that's what Howland knows. That's what Howland was trying to reinforce. I'm the man here. You fall in line or you're out of here. Here's where the miscalculation was: Howland thought the rest of the team would respond by playing harder. But when your players already hate you, exerting your power over one of them is only going to make them hate you more, not less. And, this team has clearly shown that they're done buying into Howland.

Since Farmar and Afflalo left, I've watched several players play depressed and with horrible body language. Howland micromanages his offense to the detriment of everybody involved. He is a terrific defensive coach but there is not one player able to shine in his offense. Is there anyway a John Wall would play for Howland? No way. Jrue Holiday found that out a little too late. Holiday is a good guy. Watching him play for Howland was beyond disconcerting. It was clear to all in the know how good Holiday was and how much he hated Howland and his constant criticism and power trip explosions. And Jrue isn't the only one. Drew Gordon looks pretty solid playing for New Mexico. Chace Stanback is doing it for UNLV. Why couldn't they do it for UCLA? Howland. Howland's abrasiveness and ego won't let guys play. Was Russell Westbrook a clear NBA All-Star while at UCLA? No.

I'm excited for a coach to come in and take the leash off of our guys. How bad is it to play for Howland? Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee decided to jump ship knowing they wouldn't be close to lottery picks and that they'd be getting drafted into a lockout. That's how bad it is to play for Howland. You can't take one step on offense without fear of being chastised and benched. Sorry Mr. Dwyre, I give Howland no credit for continuing on his power trip. The guy has to go, and now. How many more times do we have to watch our Bruins look like depressed robots out there? Hopefully none.

WEEK 11 PICKS

Denver +6.5 vs. New York Jets
Buffalo +2 at Miami
Cincinnati +7 at Baltimore
Jacksonville even at Cleveland
Oakland -1 at Minnesota
Detroit -7 vs. Carolina
Green Bay -14 vs. Tampa Bay
Dallas -7.5 at Washington
San Francisco -9.5 vs. Arizona
St. Louis -1.5 vs. Seattle
Tennessee +6 at Atlanta
Chicago -3.5 vs. San Diego
New York Giants -5 vs. Philadelphia
New England -15 vs. Kansas City

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 70-69-7

My Sports Loss of Innocence

2011-11-09T16:38:31Z

When I was little, I believed in Santa Claus. I know, I'm Jewish. But I just figured Santa went to some of my friends' houses. I even called one of those phone numbers to talk to Santa. My Mom didn't like the 10 minute call at 75 cents per minute. However, sometime in my childhood I figured out that there wasn't a jolly fat man climbing down the chimneys of houses and leaving presents for children and occasionally eating cookies and milk. It was around the same time that I figured out my parents were leaving money under my pillow when I would lose my teeth.

What does this have to do with sports? Well, until a few days ago when "Penn State" and "Sandusky" became the hottest Google searches, I believed in the goodness embodied by a few college coaches. I know what you're thinking, two things probably:

1) Hey wait, aren't you the guy who kills the NCAA all the time for its hypocrisy and kills guys like Pitino and Calipari?

2) Are you a complete moron?

Well, apparently both 1 and 2 are correct. Yes, I have lambasted the NCAA and will continue to do so for the hypocrisy of its culture surrounding "amateur athleticism." But apparently, yes, I'm a moron. While I couldn't stand guys like Coach Cal and Pitino, I loved guys like Coach K and yes, Joe Paterno. I loved Joe Paterno. I believed this was a guy doing things the right way for years and succeeding in the right way, a la John Wooden. And while the slight chink in Wooden's armor was a friend of the program helping out his players, Paterno's armor is now missing a chest plate and a helmet, maybe more.

Now, I am not going to say that the allegations that have arisen and the facts Joe Pa has admitted to necessarily mean that Joe Pa has been doing things the wrong way all of his career, but a saint he is no more. Unfortunately, the mention of the word "saint" in the previous sentence almost drove me to write a joke comparing Penn State to the Catholic Church, but I digress.

Joe Paterno said, "this is a tragedy." He couldn't be more right. What he's missing is the tremendous role he played in this tragedy. Joe was in Acts II through V. He of course did not actively molest a child but he more than harbored and protected someone who did. Here's what I understand to have happened: Sandusky serially molested children under the guise of running a charity. He was caught by someone who reported the matter to Joe Pa. The person reporting it did so at Joe Pa's house on a Saturday morning. Joe Pa went to his superior (yeah, cause he has those and in no way is more powerful than anyone else at Penn State), and told his "superior" of what was reported. Story ends. Or so Coach had wished.

I have heard the same argument quite a few times over the past few days and while the talking heads are annoying with the moral high ground they all occupy, they actually have this one right. Where was the follow up? If someone told you that there was child molestation going on, and you reported it, wouldn't you follow up? "Hey, remember that thing I reported, what happened?" That's all. He could have just said that and then maybe this whole thing could have been averted. Future victims would have been saved. But no. I just don't understand how you could do so little to prevent child molestation. These are the criminals that have to be segregated in jails because even the cold blooded murderers think they're the lowest of the low. And they're right on this one.

Joe Paterno let a child molestor continue to terrorize children. His loyalty was to Penn State. At a certain point, there are things more important than your university and winning. That's what coaches should be teaching, right?

I stopped believing in Santa Claus, and now I've lost Joe Pa. What's next? Is Coach K going to pull a drive by?

WEEK 10 PICKS

Oakland +7 at San Diego
Pittsburgh -3 at Cincinnati
Denver +3 at Kansas City
Jacksonville -3 at Indianapolis
Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas
Tampa Bay +3 vs. Houston
Tennessee +3 at Carolina
Washington +4 at Miami
New Orleans even at Atlanta
St. Louis +2.5 at Cleveland
Seattle +7 vs. Baltimore
Arizona +14 vs. Philadelphia
Chicago -3 vs. Detroit
New York Giants +3.5 at San Francisco
New England +1 at New York Jets
Minnesota +13.5 at Green Bay

Last Week: 8-6
Season: 59-64-7

Week 9 Picks

2011-11-05T21:54:46Z

Lazy week all, sorry, no column. Here are the picks:

Atlanta -7 at Indianapolis
Tampa Bay +8.5 at New Orleans
Houston -10.5 vs. Cleveland
Buffalo -2.5 vs. New York Jets
Kansas City -4 vs. Miami
San Francisco -4 at Washington
Dallas -11 vs. Seattle
Denver +7.5 at Oakland
Cincinnati +3 at Tennessee
Arizona -3 vs. St. Louis
New England -9 vs. New York Giants
Green Bay -6 at San Diego
Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Baltimore
Chicago +7.5 at Philadelphia

Last Week: 6-7
Season: 51-58-7

The Labor Movement

2011-10-29T18:04:21Z

I do want to address the NFL, but I think my 2-11 week this past weekend precludes me from being able to. I apologize to the two of you who agree with my picks every week. Then I decided to address the Rangers World Series win and my great 15-1 pick. Who the crap is David Freese? Seriously. Oh well, great game though. Last night was a mere formality after Game 6. If I told you Allen Craig and David Freese were the senior partners at a corporate firm called Freese & Craig, LLP a month ago, you all would have believed me. Don't lie. Okay, I'm over it now. Really, I am. DAVID FREESE! Okay, I'm done now.

I'd like to address the Occupy Wall Street Movement because they're about as useful as the NBA Players' Association.

Here is the mission statement of the Occupy Wall Street Movement according to their website:

"Occupy Wall Street is a people-powered movement that began on September 17, 2011 in Liberty Square in Manhattan’s Financial District, and has spread to over 100 cities in the United States and actions in over 1,500 cities globally. #ows is fighting back against the corrosive power of major banks and multinational corporations over the democratic process, and the role of Wall Street in creating an economic collapse that has caused the greatest recession in generations. The movement is inspired by popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, and aims to expose how the richest 1% of people are writing the rules of an unfair global economy that is foreclosing on our future."

And here is the problem with that. The uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia had goals, namely, the overthrow of the then current regimes. They were deemed successes when Hosni Mubarak and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali were ousted respectively. What exactly is the endgame for Occupy Wall Street? I'm guessing they're not trying to oust President Obama. Do they want the mass redistribution of wealth, and if so, why aren't they living in communist countries? Are they trying to get Obama's jobs bill passed? Do they know what their goal is? From what I can tell, they're just a bunch of angry people causing traffic jams.

At least the Tea Party had a goal. They wanted to live in a country without a black president. Wait, what? They're saying they don't like spending. Where were they in the eight years before Obama? Going to two wars and cutting taxes simultaneously were somehow ok? Deregulation leading to the worst recession since '32 and massive bailouts were cool? Sorry, I'm sticking with my original theory here. They're obsessed with Herman Cain because then they can pretend like they're not racists. It's the Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas Theory. Exit Thurgood Marshall. Enter Mr. Conservative/I'm Not Going To Talk On the Bench For Years at a Time. But I digress.

Back to Occupy Wall Street. I've been hoping for a counter-Tea Party movement centered around the dying middle class, Congress' polarization, and the Republican party's clear unwillingness to do anything positive for this country while Obama is hanging out in the Oval Office. Forget Occupy Wall Street. We need banks. We need the people running them to have incentives to do the right thing and make money. That's why we need regulation, to keep them in check. I get why people are angry. I'm angry too. But misguided anger will not help anything. At best, they'll have speeches geared toward them in 2012 followed by more of the same. Here are the places these geniuses need to occupy:

Occupy Kentucky: I want a month of Fire Mitch McConnell signs.
Occupy Virginia's 7th District: I want that weasel Eric Cantor gone. He reminds me of Eric from Billy Madison, just a pure weasel.
Occupy the golf course John Boehner's on: On second thought, don't, I hate to see a grown man cry.

You see, ousting these horrible non-leaders is a goal. Passing a jobs bill would be a goal. What do these OWS people want? And that is why so many people can't stand them. They're just camping out causing some raucous without any real aim. They're just misguided people complaining really loudly. Set a goal, try to attain it and then I might start listening. Until then, please clean up after yourselves and stop causing traffic jams.

Speaking of not causing jams, what is wrong with the NBAPA? Talk about aimless. The 53% mantra was almost as annoying as the 99% mantra with the OWS. Stand United? How about going on the offensive against a bunch of billionaires who clearly have no intention of bargaining and clearly are waiting you out, knowning that they have more money than you and can get by without professional basketball. How about exposing their funny accounting? And most importantly, how about not sending Kevin Garnett in as you chief negotiator when times get tough? There is a reason people hire businessmen, consultants, and lawyers in these situations and it is because they're trained for negotiations of this magnitude, can remain objective, and advise their clients accordingly. Which part of that is Kevin Garnett qualified for? This: (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSmD5oAhTmo)

Okay, so what have we learned? Here:

1. Have a goal, otherwise, no more camping party, unless there are mountains and trees around.

2. Kevin Garnett screaming cannot be your negotiating strategy.

3. RW had a bad week with his picks and the below should be taken with a grain of salt.

WEEK 8 PICKS

Indianapolis +9 at Tennessee
Jacksonville +9.5 at Houston
Minnesota +3.5 at Carolina
New Orleans -13.5 at St. Louis
Baltimore -12.5 vs. Arizona
New York Giants -9.5 vs. Miami
Buffalo -4.5 vs. Washington
Denver +3 vs. Detroit (TEBOW!)
Pittsburgh +2.5 vs. New England
San Francisco -9 vs. Cleveland
Cincinnati -2 at Seattle
Dallas +3 at Philadelphia
Kansas City +3 vs. San Diego

Last Week: 2-11
Season: 45-51-7 (amazing how a 2-11 week can kill your season)

Random Thoughts on a Saturday Morning

2011-10-22T18:32:42Z

I was going to do a Tebow article because I have a bona fide man crush on him at this point, but I think I'll wait until he wins a game this season.

My favorite thing about Tebow is his living the tenets of his religion without shoving them down people's throats. He can't shove them down your throat because he's too busy building houses in third world countries and helping little kids with diseases to feel better. You see some other athletes, take my guy Money Mayweather, for instance. After he sucker punched the head-butting Ortiz, he thanked the man upstairs. Really? The man upstairs wanted you to sucker punch a guy? The man upstairs wants you at strip clubs? Jesus was making it rain in the Bible? I don't think so. I'll take my chances with Tebow.

Someone is going to have to explain why 1,027 prisoners for 1 Israeli soldier is a fair deal. This is why there will never be peace over there. These are the people Israel is negotiating with. 1,027 to 1. And the world is somehow ok with this.

I loved the Harbaugh/Schwartz hand shake. It was hilarious. I don't understand why everybody was up in arms about it. Two crazy coaches yelling at each other. What's the problem?

Speaking of what's the problem. Who cares that Pujols didn't stick around to answer the media's questions at his locker? Because the media was going to ask such great questions about his not catching the bad cut off throw? Sorry media members, I don't really feel the need to hear the Machine answer your questions.

I love watching Michael Vick lose. I'm a dog lover. So sue me.

This World Series has been fun to watch. I wish there were some more marquee names too, but that's part of the fun of it. In a league where the Yankees spend 10 times more than a third of the teams, give or take, it's nice to see #11 and #13 on the payroll spent in the fall classic (yes, I also like watching because I have the Rangers at 15 to 1 to win it all).

I was very upset seeing Jason Campbell go down. The Raiders finally had a good thing for them. Campbell is a good guy. Now we're stuck with the ghost of Palmer's past.

And as for Al Davis, yes, he did a lot of good for the NFL, but why are people pretending like he was Jesus? Read Rick Reilly's article about him and you'll get a more accurate portrayal.

UCLA football is very bad. How does Rick Neuheisel have a job? Especially in this economy.

I cannot believe the NBA Players Association sent Kevin Garnett into a room to negotiate. Have you watched this guy? He's insane. Who thought this was a good idea? David Stern and a bunch of lawyers against Kevin Garnett and Friends? Great tactic guys. How do you lose the PR battle against a bunch of greedy billionaires who are fudging numbers? Maybe they need to start an Occupy NBA Owners rally.

If you paid $54.95 to watch Hopkins/Dawson it's your own fault.

The BCS is still putrid. I can't wait for everybody to go crazy when there are 5 undefeated teams at the end of this season.

No body will do anything about the previous paragraph because there is too much money made.

On to the picks.

WEEK 7 PICKS

Tampa Bay +2 vs. Chicago
Washington +2.5 at Carolina
San Diego even at New York Jets
Seattle +3 at Cleveland
Tennessee -3 vs. Houston
Denver even at Miami
Detroit -3.5 vs. Atlanta
Oakland -3.5 vs. Kansas City
Pittsburgh -4 at Arizona
St. Louis +13 at Dallas
Green Bay -10 at Minnesota (good luck Mr. Ponder)
Indianapolis +13.5 at New Orleans
Baltimore -8 at Jacksonville

Last Week: 5-6-2
Season: 43-40-7

My Power Rankings In Review

2011-10-15T15:31:42Z

I was looking back at my power rankings from just two weeks ago and my my were there some interesting calls on my part. Here's what I came up with upon further review:

THINGS I WAS RIGHT ABOUT

1. The Miami Dolphins are tanking for Andrew Luck. Any time you're turning to Matt Moore, you're proclaiming to the world: We are not trying to win. We want the #1 pick in the draft. Come and catch us if you can.

2. Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears. Here's what I wrote about Jay Cutler's inner monologue: "Please don't hit me, please don't hit me, holy crap, holy crap, holy crap . . ." Did you watch the Monday Night Football game against Detroit? I'm pretty sure I have that one pegged. If there's anybody earning his paycheck this year, it's Jay Cutler. I would not trade places with that guy no matter what his contract looks like.

3. The New York Jets could easily be 2-3 in two weeks. Well, not that it was too tough to call, but at least I got it. I'm preparing myself because I just saw how gawdawful some of my commentary is.

4. New England, New Orleans, and Green Bay. I didn't reinvent the wheel here, although I'm still liking my New Orleans pick.

5. Denver Broncos. Here's all I had to say about them and I'm still there: "Tebow! Tebow! Tebow!"

THINGS I WAS WOEFULLY WRONG ABOUT

1. "This may sound crazy, but I really like the Rams at +350 to win the NFC West." Well, it sounded crazy for a reason. They don't need Luck, but they sure will be able to trade that #1 pick for some nice pieces around Bradford.

2. San Francisco 49ers . . . "Can we start the Colin Kaepernik countdown yet?" No, no we can't. The 49ers under Jim Harbaugh' s magical spell are making a case for sleeper of the year despite what Detroit's doing for a city that more than needed something to care about. The 49ers are great on defense. Alex Smith is doing a 180. Heck, they just beat Tampa Bay 48-3.

3. Speaking of Tampa Bay, they're not fun to watch when they're down by six TD's in the fourth quarter. I missed the boat on that one. Glad I didn't officially make them a long shot pick.

4. "The Giants are sneaky good." No, no they're not. Eli Manning is still sneaky bad and I somehow forgot about this. Losing to Tarvaris Jackson at home reminded me.

5. Detroit Lions . . . "I don't think this is quite their year yet." I may have been wrong about that one. I don't think they win the Super Bowl this year but, um guys, is there still room for me to jump on this bandwagon? It just looks like so much fun. And I LOVE saying Ndamukong and Megatron. They just flow off the tongue.

I am sure I was right and wrong about some more picks, but on a Saturday morning, that's all you're getting. Sorry. I'll have my former Tiger Woods A-game back next week.

WEEK 6 PICKS

Green Bay -14 vs. St. Louis (seems awfully low)
Jacksonville +12.5 at Pittsburgh
Washington +3 vs. Philadelphia
Detroit -4 vs. San Francisco
Carolina +4.5 at Atlanta
Indianapolis +7 at Cincinnati
Buffalo +3 at New York Giants
Baltimore -7.5 vs. Houston
Oakland -7 vs. Cleveland
Dallas +6.5 at New England
Tampa Bay +5 vs. New Orleans
Minnesota +3 at Chicago
Miami +7 at New York Jets

Last Week: 8-5
Season: 38-34-5

The Long Shot

2011-10-08T04:05:25Z

If you're going to gamble, which you shouldn't, because you'll lose, here's a fun way to do it both because it's cost efficient and because the action feels like it lasts for weeks and weeks. Not that I would know about gambling, but if I did, here's what I would have been doing for the last several years with both professional baseball and football. I would have picked anywhere between two and four "long shots" put a little money on them early to mid way through the year and then monitored every game as if I had bet on each and every one. This year in baseball I had Texas at 15-1 and Pittsburgh at 100-1. Obviously one of those was more fun than the other. The year the Astros lost in the World Series, I got in on them in June at 200-1 (no, I didn't hedge, because I'm an idiot). Last year I had the Packers and Steelers. Usually I won't take a team that has shallower odds than 10-1 but I made an exception for the 7-1 Steel Curtain last year. Of course, some years this theory doesn't work out, but it's always fun.

What got me to thinking of that, other than still having the Rangers going, was how much the playoffs have become "anybody's series" matchups. I just watched the Yankees and Phillies go down, so everybody's World Series picks are gone now. You know what that means? If you have a team at 10-1 in the playoffs, you've got a pretty good bet. Of course, if you bet on more than one team, you've got to go for longer odds to make it worthwhile but you also have the chance of more than one team making it. Again, it's a lot of fun. Especially when your favorite baseball and football teams are the Dodgers and Raiders. So it's nice to root for teams that have a chance of winning something.

My method is as follows:

1. Pick a team with 10-1 odds or worse.
2. For baseball, make sure the team is willing to spend money at the trade deadline rather than shed payroll (hence the Astros pick the year they started out horribly then acquired Beltran after I placed my wager).
3. For football, make sure your team has a good QB (sorry 25-1 NY Jets).
4. Buy low. Go for your team after a loss or losing streak.
5. Look for teams with injured players whose injuries are not major, thus making for a better team than the current record will suggest.
6. Do NOT jump on a bandwagon. If everybody likes a team, then Vegas knows this and adjusts the odds accordingly (sorry 8-1 Detroit Lions).
7. Make your picks somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 way through the season.
8. Sit back, relax, and enjoy dozens of meaningful games on just a few wagers.

Here are my NFL possibilities this year as we head into Week 5:

Note: I was tempted with the 25-1 Falcons but just don't see it as much as I like Matt Ryan, the running game, and White/Julio.

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1)

No, I'm not just taking this off Bill Simmons. I already jumped on them last week. In other words, I got in on them either one or two weeks early. WARNING: MAKE SURE BEN IS HEALTHY BEFORE GETTING IN. I would wait a week on this one. Either Ben looks good and the odds only drop to 12-1, or they lose, go to something like 18-1 and become a better bet. Either way, if Roethlisberger is legitimately hurt, stay away.

New Orleans Saints (10-1)

For the life of me I have no idea how they're still 10-1. Drew Brees has returned to form. Through four games he has a 69% completion percentage, has thrown for 1,410 yards, and has 10 TD's to 4 INT's. The defense may not be the greatest in the world but they're playing motivated after last season and really, they're a 4th and goal bust away from being 4-0. If Ingram pounds that ball in (or if Payton had let Brees do his thing), the Saints would be 6-1 at worst right now.

Note: I also like Josh Freeman and the Bucs at 25-1 but I couldn't talk myself into taking two teams from the same division.

Dallas Cowboys (25-1)

I know Tony Romo has taken a beating, but for some reason, maybe it's Skip Bayless' voice in my head, but I don't see Romo as a choke artist. The Cowboys are 2-2 and should really be 4-0. I know, that's a sign of a team just not getting it done, but I like Jason Garrett and I love Rob Ryan. I hated losing him as a Raiders fan. The Cowboys to me are a few minor adjustments away from being there. But here's why I really love them, their next game is at New England. If they lose there, they may drop to 30-1. Then after that, their non-divisional schedule consists of St. Louis, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, Arizona, and Tampa Bay. That smells an awful like 5-1 to me. Remember, all you have to do is get into the playoffs (see: Giants, New York and Packers, Green Bay).

So there you have it. You can have Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Dallas at 14-1, 10-1, and 25 (or 30) -1. Have fun.

WEEK 5 PICKS

Kansas City +2 at Indianapolis
Minnesota -3 vs. Arizona
Buffalo +3 vs. Philadelphia
Oakland +6 at Houston
New Orleans -6.5 at Carolina
Cincinnati +2 at Jacksonville
Pittsburgh -3 vs. Tennessee
New York Giants -9.5 vs. Seattle
Tampa Bay +3 at San Francisco
New England -7.5 vs. New York Jets
San Diego -4 at Denver
Atlanta +6.5 vs. Green Bay
Chicago +5 at Detroit

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 30-29-5

NFL Power Rankings - Week 4

2011-10-01T20:48:25Z

You asked for it, you got it. Here are my power rankings through three weeks of football:

32. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)

Are you allowed to openly start tanking for Andrew Luck in week one? If not, then somebody should launch an investigation into the Chiefs' play.

31. Miami Dolphins (0-3)

See comment above.

30. Indianapolis Colts (0-3)

Any time you're turning the ball over to Curtis Painter, you know your season is in trouble. How does David Garrard not have a job?

29. St. Louis Rams (0-3)

This may sound crazy but I really like the Rams at +350 to win the NFC West. What? You're sold on San Francisco or Arizona?

28. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

The most interesting thing about this team has to be the police blotter. I love when players are running marijuana factories in their houses.

27. Minnesota Vikings (0-3)

He looks like McNabb, but I can't figure out who that impostor is playing QB for the Vikings. I guess QB's are like boxers. Once they're shot, it just gets ugly, only they don't realize it until it's about 3 years too late.

26. Denver Broncos (1-2)

Tebow! Tebow! Tebow!

25. Seattle Seahawks (1-2)

Seriously, how does David Garrard not have a job?

24. Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

Secretly my favorite team to pick against. Read as: No, I'm not sold on the Kevin Kolb era.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

I kind of like the Jones-Drew and Gabbert combination going forward in the coming years. I don't think Del Rio will be there to see it though.

22. Carolina Panthers (1-2)

I guess Cam Newton is good at football. $180,000 was a bargain for Auburn.

21. Cleveland Browns (2-1)

A bad football team masquerading around with a 2-1 record.

20. San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

And we're out of NFC West teams. Can we start the countdown to Colin Kaepernik time yet? Note to San Francisco: Alex Smith is not a good quarterback.

19. Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)

New rule: When you have tortured and killed dogs and subsequently sign a $100 million contract, you are NOT allowed to whine about getting hit.

18. Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

I don't understand how they fell off so quickly. I can't figure out why they're not good.

17. Chicago Bears (1-2)

It's very funny watching Jay Cutler play quarterback. Here's his inner monologue: "Please don't hit me, please don't hit me, holy crap, holy crap, holy crap . . . " Overthrow.

16. Washington Redskins (2-1)

People forget that Rex Grossman almost won a Super Bowl. What? The Bears had a good defense that year? Oh, ok.

15. Tennessee Titans (2-1)

A huge loss for the Titans and my fantasy team with Britt going down for the season.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

Josh Freeman needs a sports psychologist. He goes from Average Joe to Joe Montana once the fourth quarter starts. This is a very fun team to watch in the fourth quarter.

13. New York Giants (2-1)

I'm preparing myself for everybody jumping on the Eli Manning bandwagon. The Giants are sneaky good.

12. Oakland Raiders (2-1)

Speaking of sneaky good, the Raiders are doing it with bad play calling, zero secondary, and a whole lot of Run DMc. McFadden is a beast.

11. Houston Texans (2-1)

There's just something about the Texans. I feel like they'll end up 8-8 because it's preordained.

10. New York Jets (2-1)

They could easily be 2-3 in a couple of weeks. This is a team that can't run, can't stop the run, and is starting Mark Sanchez at QB.

9. Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

Who wins in a fight, Chuck Norris or Tony Romo?

8. San Diego Chargers (2-1)

Get excited for another 11-5 or 12-4 season followed by a playoff flame out.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

Troy Polamalu is the MVP of the NFL. People don't give him enough credit. If he's healthy this year I still like the Steelers to come out of the AFC, offensive line problems aside.

6. Buffalo Bills (3-0)

The shocker of the year and that's an understatement. They are a fun team to root for (unfortunately I think they'll be at 15 on this list six weeks from now).

5. Detroit Lions (3-0)

This team could wind up being scary good. I don't think this is quite their year yet, but going forward this is shaping up to be a Super Bowl team in the next five years.

4. Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

You ever watch NFL Primetime and wonder how Tom Jackson never ages? Well that's how I feel about the Baltimore defense.

3. New England Patriots (2-1)

Last week was an aberration. As a Raiders fan I am more than nervous about a pissed off head shaven Tom Brady.

2. New Orleans Saints (2-1)

My Super Bowl pick is still looking good. They should be 3-0 but somehow Drew Brees wasn't involved in that last play against Green Bay. Not quite Pete Carroll having Reggie Bush completely off the field on 4th and 1 against Texas, but a complete bonehead decision by Sean Payton.

1. Green Bay Packers (3-0)

They're here until someone beats them, and they haven't even played a complete game yet.

WEEK 4 PICKS

Dallas -2.5 vs. Detroit
New Orleans -7.5 at Jacksonville
San Francisco +9.5 at Philadelphia
St. Louis +2.5 vs. Washington
Tennessee -1 at Cleveland
Buffalo -3 at Cincinnati
Minnesota -3 at Kansas City
Chicago -6.5 vs. Carolina
Pittsburgh +3.5 at Houston
Atlanta -4.5 at Seattle
New York Giants -1.5 at Arizona
San Diego -7 vs. Miami
Green Bay -12 vs. Denver
Oakland +5.5 vs. New England
Baltimore -4 vs. New York Jets
Indianapolis +10 at Tampa Bay

Last Week: 9-6-1
Season: 22-21-5

Mayweather vs. Ortiz after further review

2011-09-25T04:42:03Z

Ok, now that I've viewed the infamous final moments of the Mayweather/Ortiz bout for the five hundredth time, I think I'm done formulating my opinion. Let me begin by saying that I watched the fight live and my adrenaline rush took about sixteen hours to subside. I just could not get over what I had witnessed. It was amazing for lack of a better word. I put it above the guy parachuting into the ring during Holyfield/Bowe, slightly behind the riot in the arena after Golata's low blows ended the Bowe fight, and of course, nothing will top Tyson with Holyfield's ear in his mouth.

But I really have never witnessed anything in sport like the end of Mayweather/Ortiz. To sum it all up, the headbutt was one of the most blatant illegal blows I've seen. Ortiz left his feet to butt Floyd like he was trying to head in a corner kick. And for anyone who thought Ortiz was winning that round, um, please watch the replay for clarification. Just because a guy throws punches and the crowd is cheering doesn't mean he's scoring any blows. I think Ortiz realized after whiff number 48 in the corner that his only prayer was to resort to cheap shots, so he did. And that little choir boy act he pulled afterward didn't have me fooled. HOWEVER; that does not in any way excuse Floyd's conduct. Yes, time was back in. Yes, you are supposed to protect yourself at all times. But did you catch Floyd looking at Joe Cortez who for some reason not paying attention a la a special guest referee at Wrestlemania? It was then that Floyd decided to break a hug by landing a brutal one-two.

In a fight, when someone is hugging, like at the start of the 12th round, it is commonly understood that the fighters back away and then come forward. They don't start punching the second the hug is broken. Now, I thought the first punch, the left hook, was fair. I thought Floyd was trying to send a message. "You do some dirty crap like that headbutt and I'll do something right back." Fine, message received. But then Floyd through the right cross that ended the whole thing. Cheap shot. Not worse than the headbutt, but there was no reason for it. Floyd would have knocked Ortiz out in the latter rounds the way things were going, especially given Victor's chin and history of wearing down. But something clicked in Floyd. You could see it when he strutted back to his corner in victory. Then he put on the showman cap with his arm around Larry Merchant, and then again, that same visceral reaction came when Larry called him out. I am not a Larry Merchant fan. Those four second pauses are brutal when he speaks. And why does he always have one round a draw? Here is a typical Larry Merchant review in Round 8, "Jim . . . I have it . . . four rounds . . . to . . . three . . . with one round . . . a . . . draw." May I please have the last minute and five seconds of my life back?

In the end though, I finally understand Floyd. He is immature, angry, and has low self-esteem in the same way Terrell Owens does. He wants people to love him and it hurts him to no end when he isn't paid his respect the way he thinks it should be paid. So he acts out. He went from Pretty Boy Floyd to Money May. And it's not a wonder to see where his personality traits come from after watching his father over the years. So every fight Floyd does is good versus evil, even against a guy like De La Hoya, who I hope I don't have to justify not liking at this point.

The ultimate good versus evil fight will hopefully come against Pacquiao. I think it happens because of Floyd's legal bills, gambling habits, and spendthrift ways. And I will be betting on Floyd and rooting for him the same way I root for Scarface. Except Scarface wasn't the best defensive boxer of all time. Say goodbye to the bad guy (until May 2012 hopefully).

WEEK 3 PICKS

Cincinnati -3 over San Francisco
New England -7.5 at Buffalo
New Orleans -4 vs. Houston
New York +9 at Philadelphia
Miami +1.5 at Cleveland
Tennessee -7 vs. Denver
Detroit -3 at Minnesota
Carolina -3.5 vs. Jacksonville
San Diego -14.5 vs. Kansas City
Oakland +3 vs. New York Jets
Baltimore -5 at St. Louis
Tampa Bay +1.5 vs. Atlanta
Arizona -3.5 at Seattle
Green Bay -4 at Chicago
Pittsburgh -10.5 at Indianapolis
Washington +6 at Dallas

Last Week: 8-6-2
Season: 13-15-4

24/7 . . . Don't be fooled

2011-09-17T16:36:02Z

I know you would think I'd come right out with my reaction to Week 1 in the NFL, but I'm still embarrassed by my Week 1 picks. Here's what I know, I'd better study up and shut up until I have a better handle on things. On the bright side, my fantasy teams went 3-0 last week, so at least I evaluated something correctly.

On to boxing and tonight's Floyd Mayweather vs. Victor Ortiz fight. When I saw this bout get signed I thought one thing. This is going to be the easiest bet in the history of sports gambling. Then I thought about all of the poor souls who thought the exact same thing and put their money down on Floyd at 8 to 1 odds. Silly gamblers.

If there is one thing I have learned in the past few years in watching big money boxing fights it is this: There is a clear favorite. That clear favorite will win. The betting public will rally behind the guy getting pummeled (fine, three things).

Initially I couldn't figure out why these lines were moving so dramatically. I know everybody loves an underdog, and when it came to Ricky Hatton I know there was an army of drunk British people backing him, but we're not talking about a line going from -650 to -625. This Mayweather line started at 8 to 1. I looked yesterday. It was -625. I looked this morning. The line is now at -550 for Floyd and +375 on Ortiz. Do this many people like losing money? Nothing against Vicious Victor Ortiz. I loved his heart and the redemption he got in his tremendous win against Berto. And Berto is a very good fighter. But Berto has no defense. If not for cutting his opponent badly, he would have been in an all out war in his most recent fight against Jan Zaveck, another good fighter, but not exactly Floyd or Manny.

So why the rush of money being bet against money? I finally figured it out a little over a year ago. It's 24/7. This is a brilliant show for two reasons. First, it's intriguing and gets people to buy a pay-per-view fight. Second, it takes a clear mismatch and turns it into a fight where that loveable underdog has a chance to unseat the clear favorite. They pay a bunch of people to go on the television and tell us that boxing can be changed by one punch. That the gritty underdog and turn the fight ugly and make the favorite's life miserable. Then they show us the cocky and arrogant side of the favorite, and the enduring spirit of the underdog. So you're rooting for the underdog. To recap, you have people the average viewer consider experts telling the audience why an upset could happen, you know, because of the punching power of _____________ (insert Ricky Hatton, Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto, Zab Judah, Arturo Gatti, or now, Vicious Victor Ortiz here). Then you add to that the personal rooting interest the viewing public has in the underdog, and viola. Lines that move by as much as 50%. It doesn't matter if the bully is Floyd or Manny, or even if the underdog is a name like Oscar De La Hoya. It's the same formula.

To sum up the above: Bet on Floyd. I just wish I could tell you whether he feels like mixing it up tonight and scoring a KO. Ortiz is highly susceptible, but Floyd could very well just go for a 118-110 decision.

WEEK 2 PICKS (maybe the all caps will help)

New Orleans -6.5 vs. Chicago
Detroit -9 vs. Kansas City
New York Jets -9 vs. Jacksonville
Oakland +3 at Buffalo
Washington -3.5 vs. Arizona
Baltimore -6 at Tennessee
Pittsburgh -14 vs. Seattle (this line can not be high enough, I'd lay 28)
Green Bay -10.5 at Carolina
Tampa Bay +3 at Minnesota
Cleveland -2 at Indianapolis (that looks weird)
Dallas -3 at San Francisco
Miami +3 vs. Houston (take the over)
San Diego +7 at New England
Denver -3.5 vs. Cincinnati
Atlanta +2.5 vs. Philadelphia (Air Bud with the winning TD)
New York Giants -6.5 vs. St. Louis

Last Week: 5-9-2
Season: 5-9-2

Random Thoughts - NFL Opening Day

2011-09-08T15:42:44Z

I know it's been a while and I've heard about it from a lot of you. I'm sorry and thanks for hanging in there with RW (shout out to Mike Dalton here). As a treat, here are some random thoughts before we get going tonight with the Saints and Packers.

Donald Young is tennis' best bet to get American viewership.

Unfortunately Donald Young is a bit of a hot head and does not have top-5 talent.

To those who got very angry with the USA/Mexico column, here is the cliff notes version:

Mexicans: Cool
Mexican - Americans: Cool
U.S. citizens rooting against the U.S.: Not cool
U.S. citizens booing the national anthem: Deplorable
U.S. citizens throwing cups of urine at U.S. players and supporters: Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

It pains me to say it, but the Phillies look unstoppable. I see the Phils beating the Yankees in 6.

The faux-hawk needs to go away.

Situation head-butting the wall then sitting alone and crying with red sunglasses and a neck brace was one of the funniest things I've seen in a while.

I'm not sure what it says about me that I woke up the other day in a great mood because I had a good fantasy football draft the night before. No, I wasn't thinking that it makes me a loser. Stop it.

Webb Simpson put on a show for those of us who still love golf in the post-Tiger screwed everything with a skirt era.

The NBA lockout will cost us at least half of the season, likely more.

The owners are the main reason behind the above statement. Their accountants would land them in federal prison if they worked their tax returns the same way.

Lionel Messi is the best athlete in the world. And no, I'm not just saying that because we're the same height.

I still can't figure out if Floyd Mayweather and his family are really that crazy or if they're trying to sell tickets. I'm leaning toward they really are that crazy.

No matter what happens on 24/7, Floyd is far too fast and skilled for Ortiz. Floyd will win by KO in the 9th round.

Someone needs to conduct a poll along the lines of the Presidential approval ratings, but make it for Frank McCourt. I really don't think this guy understands how much Dodger fans can't stand him. I know several people who have turned down free tickets because they didn't want to go to the game and buy an item, thus putting money in McCourt's pocket.

Frank McCourt also can't think we're that gullable. $1.2 billion from his former business partner and Chinese investors? Come on buddy. That would be like someone seeing the U.S., saying, "wow, they're economy's in great shape, I'd like to bid 50% more than it's worth! What downside?"

Justin Bieber did not cross up Steve Nash. Nash went high on a screen because you're supposed to have help from the weak side. And I'm fairly certain Nash wasn't exactly giving it his all there. The Justin Bieber 15 minutes needs to end soon.

President Obama will give a great speech tonight.

Nothing will get done in Washington.

Republicans would vote against a bill allowing citizens to use the bathroom if Obama supported it.

Romney did some work last night.

I'm not sure which is a bigger black eye on football, concussions or steroids (when they finally check steroid use).

I definitely ignore the above statement and look forward with glee to the start of the season.

Saints over Steelers in the Super Bowl.

Week 1 Picks

New Orleans +4.5 at Green Bay
Pittsburgh +1.5 at Baltimore
Detroit +1.5 at Tampa Bay
Atlanta -3 at Chicago
Kansas City -6 vs. Buffalo
Indianapolis +9 at Houston
St. Louis +4.5 vs. Philadelphia
Cincinnati +6.5 at Cleveland
Jacksonville -2 vs. Tennessee
Washington +3 vs. New York Giants
Carolina +7 at Arizona
Seattle +5.5 at San Francisco
San Diego -8.5 vs. Minnesota
Dallas +5 at New York Jets
Miami +7 vs. New England
Oakland +3 at Denver

USA at Mexico - Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA

2011-06-26T17:00:25Z

I have long worried about writing this column because I don't want to be seen as a racist or whatever else you get labeled at for being angry at a group of a certain nationality, even if that nationality is of the United States.

There was a big part of me that wanted to go to the USA vs. Mexico game at the Rose Bowl but after about half a second of deliberation, I decided against it. My decision wasn't about the price, it wasn't about what a nightmare the Rose Bowl is logistically, no, it was about fear. Fear of wearing my USA shirt and scarf and becoming human target practice. Fear of having the window of my car bearing a small USA flag sticker I got after 9-11 broken. Fear of having cups of urine thrown at me. Fear of supporting my country at home.

Now, if this were a column about a stadium full of people who traveled from Mexico to cheer their team and then go home as if this were a World Cup, well, there wouldn't be a column. This is not about Mexican citizens cheering their team and being more supportive than their American counterparts. This is about American citizens who fled Mexico for a better way of life, finding it, then booing the national anthem of the country that lets them provide for their families in safety.

I was at work the other day and was talking with one of our clients. In order to fill out a form I had to ask him what country he came from. He told me he was from Ghana. I smiled and said their could be a problem. He looked concerned and asked why. I kept my smile and responded by saying that after being ousted in two straight World Cups by Ghana and the manner in which they did it, I wasn't sure I could continue helping him. I was expecting him to laugh. He didn't. He looked offended. With a serious look on his face he said, "I root for the United States." The statement said it all. He came here in the mid-1980's when he was in his twenties and has lived here ever since. This client left Ghana for the U.S., in search of a better life, one with freedoms his homeland couldn't provide and now he found it. And he says, "I root for the United States."

And that brings me back to last night's crowd. I read Bill Plaschke's column in which a U.S. citizen donning a Mexico jersey told him she booed the team, not the country. Good luck with that explanation while wearing a U.S. jersey in Mexico. I would comment on the trophy ceremony being conducted in Spanish but the U.S. goalie, Tim Howard already did that.

Sometimes I wonder how I would act in the same situation. For instance, I sometimes get mad at people living in Los Angeles who curse the Lakers, but if I moved to New York because my job sent me there, I wouldn't abandon the Lake Show or the Dodgers. However, if I left Los Angeles because my government and police force were corrupt, because living conditions were poor to the point that I couldn't raise a family, and if I left because drug lords had made it unsafe to walk my streets and those drug lords had bought off the police, well, I'm not so sure how loyal I would be to that home. And then, if I moved to a place that let me speak my mind, that gave me citizenship, that let me provide for my family, that made my kids citizens and gave them a life that I didn't have, well, that new place would get my undying gratitude. The same undying gratitude the man from Ghana felt so offended I assumed he didn't have.

This is not a rant against immigration or illegal immigration. I hate the ridiculous Arizona and Alabama laws. I do not tolerate racism. No, this is about United States citizens who curse their country, boo its national anthem, and are clearly unappreciative of the opportunities and rights this country has given them. There is a large part of me that thinks, "if this place is so bad that you would boo its anthem, then why are you still here? You're free to go back. Nobody's stopping you." Of course I understand that this is a group that may feel like second-class citizens, even if the law does not treat them that way. But all they have to do is see that the kids they have clad in Mexico jerseys go to American schools and have all of the opportunities their classmates have. In what other country does that happen?

I went to Campos Tacos near my house at halftime and saw the third Mexico goal happen. The restaurant erupted in cheers. It would be nice if there was even an eighth as much enthusiasm for the country whose citizenship they bear, a country that lets them enjoy dinner, watch a soccer game, and grants them the freedom to do what they couldn't do at home. I agree with Plaschke, it's great that I live in a country that lets people boo its national anthem. I just wouldn't call the sight beautiful.