I have gone back and forth on this game since the teams were decided close to two weeks ago.  My eyes tell me that the Giants should be favored solely because they're the one team in this game that has a semblance of a defense.  I just see Brady running for his life, throwing off target like he has been and the Patriots' defense being shredded.  Then I think a little more, think back to Eli Manning on his back six times against the 49ers, picture Belichick watching tape for 27 hours a day and see Vince Wilfork flattening Eli like Vince was Yokozuna and Eli was Bret Hart (bonus points to the WWF fans who get that reference).

Basically, what I'm telling you, is that you should ignore this entire column save for my over/under analysis, because I have no analysis for the game.  Really, I'm going to save you some fake analysis and just give you the couple of reasons I'm taking New England.  Belichick/Brady, MHK, revenge, and that's about it.  I see the Patriots scheming in a bend but don't break sort of way and holding Eli to field goals when the Giants should be getting touchdowns.  The Giants will dominate much of the game.  The Patriots will come back, and they will win at the end, covering the spread at the same time.

Note:  The real reason I'm taking the Pats?  Vegas.  Everybody is taking the Giants.  The entire country is betting on the Giants, and the line has stayed at Pats by 2.5 for over a week now despite opening at Pats by 3.5.  That is very scary for Vegas if they didn't see the Pats covering the original 3.5 point spread.  I'm going to go with a guy like Steve Wynn, who can accidentally poke his finger through a $40M Picasso and have an "oops, my bad" type of reaction.  Yeah, I'm going with the Pats.

As for the bet I have some semblance of confidence in, it's the over/under.  Go look at any "Experts Picks" section be it on ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, Fox, whatever.  At least 90% of those scores yield an under bet.  The line opened at 55.5 and is down to 54.  I'm telling you, everybody is on the under.  I'm not.  We all know that the Patriots aren't stopping the Giants.  As I said above, the Pats will hold the Giants to field goals, sometimes.  The Patriots on the other hand, contrary to popular opinion, will be going no huddle, dinking and dunking, and doing any other of a hundred things to keep the Giants front four off guard.  Brady will be a technician.  He will dictate the tempo.  Gisele's prayers and those of her friends will be answered.  Brady is the MVP.  Patriots 38 - Giants 34.  Book it.  Well, at least the over.