I know you would think I'd come right out with my reaction to Week 1 in the NFL, but I'm still embarrassed by my Week 1 picks.  Here's what I know, I'd better study up and shut up until I have a better handle on things.  On the bright side, my fantasy teams went 3-0 last week, so at least I evaluated something correctly.

On to boxing and tonight's Floyd Mayweather vs. Victor Ortiz fight.  When I saw this bout get signed I thought one thing.  This is going to be the easiest bet in the history of sports gambling.  Then I thought about all of the poor souls who thought the exact same thing and put their money down on Floyd at 8 to 1 odds.  Silly gamblers. 

If there is one thing I have learned in the past few years in watching big money boxing fights it is this:  There is a clear favorite.  That clear favorite will win.  The betting public will rally behind the guy getting pummeled (fine, three things).

Initially I couldn't figure out why these lines were moving so dramatically.  I know everybody loves an underdog, and when it came to Ricky Hatton I know there was an army of drunk British people backing him, but we're not talking about a line going from -650 to -625.  This Mayweather line started at 8 to 1.  I looked yesterday.  It was -625.  I looked this morning.  The line is now at -550 for Floyd and +375 on Ortiz.  Do this many people like losing money?  Nothing against Vicious Victor Ortiz.  I loved his heart and the redemption he got in his tremendous win against Berto.  And Berto is a very good fighter.  But Berto has no defense.  If not for cutting his opponent badly, he would have been in an all out war in his most recent fight against Jan Zaveck, another good fighter, but not exactly Floyd or Manny.

So why the rush of money being bet against money?  I finally figured it out a little over a year ago.  It's 24/7.  This is a brilliant show for two reasons.  First, it's intriguing and gets people to buy a pay-per-view fight.  Second, it takes a clear mismatch and turns it into a fight where that loveable underdog has a chance to unseat the clear favorite.  They pay a bunch of people to go on the television and tell us that boxing can be changed by one punch.  That the gritty underdog and turn the fight ugly and make the favorite's life miserable.  Then they show us the cocky and arrogant side of the favorite, and the enduring spirit of the underdog.  So you're rooting for the underdog.  To recap, you have people the average viewer consider experts telling the audience why an upset could happen, you know, because of the punching power of _____________ (insert Ricky Hatton, Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto, Zab Judah, Arturo Gatti, or now, Vicious Victor Ortiz here).  Then you add to that the personal rooting interest the viewing public has in the underdog, and viola.  Lines that move by as much as 50%.  It doesn't matter if the bully is Floyd or Manny, or even if the underdog is a name like Oscar De La Hoya.  It's the same formula.

To sum up the above:  Bet on Floyd.  I just wish I could tell you whether he feels like mixing it up tonight and scoring a KO.  Ortiz is highly susceptible, but Floyd could very well just go for a 118-110 decision.

WEEK 2 PICKS (maybe the all caps will help)

New Orleans -6.5 vs. Chicago
Detroit -9 vs. Kansas City
New York Jets -9 vs.  Jacksonville
Oakland +3 at Buffalo
Washington -3.5 vs. Arizona
Baltimore -6 at Tennessee
Pittsburgh -14 vs. Seattle (this line can not be high enough, I'd lay 28)
Green Bay -10.5 at Carolina
Tampa Bay +3 at Minnesota
Cleveland -2 at Indianapolis (that looks weird)
Dallas -3 at San Francisco
Miami +3 vs. Houston (take the over)
San Diego +7 at New England
Denver -3.5 vs. Cincinnati
Atlanta +2.5 vs. Philadelphia (Air Bud with the winning TD)
New York Giants -6.5 vs. St. Louis

Last Week:  5-9-2
Season:        5-9-2