While I might not have the best record when it comes to betting the games, there is one skill I possess when it comes to analyzing professional football.  I tend to be quite good at predicting the spreads and the over/unders.  Again, I don't always excel from that point forward but I usually guess the spreads within one point.  It is extremely rare that I am off by more than a field goal.  I bring this up not to toot my own horn, but instead because I figured I would try and pick the spread for the Super Bowl. 

The game is on a neutral field so you don't have to factor the venue.  I could maybe see the case for giving the Packers a half a point or maybe a point because the artificial surface will benefit them as the speedier of the two teams.  I didn't because I see the Steelers defense as a quick squad.  So I analyzed the rest of the factors and came up with these theories:

1.  The Packers will NOT be able to run the ball, at all.  One of the big stories of these playoffs has been the Packers' ability to run with the emergence of Starks.  However, the Steelers don't let good teams run the ball, let alone teams that run to set up the pass.  It is only a matter of time before the Packers get frustrated and abandon the run game completely.

2.  The experience is factor is entirely on the side of Pittsburgh.  The vast majority of their team has been here before.  The Packers have two guys who have been.  Both lost.

3.  Coaching can be tremendously important in a Super Bowl both in getting the teams prepared as well as the usual in game adjustments that have to be made.  My brother-in-law Scott is a Packers fan.  I guarantee you the image of Mike McCarthy gazing into the screen with an empty stare will keep Scott up at night with cold sweats. 

4.  Both teams can pass the ball.  Everybody is talking about the great Aaron Rodgers, but I'll bet if you polled players in the league, they'd choose Big Ben almost 3 to 1 over Rodgers if they had to win one game.  The Packers have a tremendous receiving corps but I think people are forgetting about how good Pittsburgh's defense is.  They will give up some big plays, but they will make some big plays too.

5.  Similar to the above noted point, which team do you trust late in the game?  I'll go with Big Ben over Aaron Rodgers.  I'll go with Pittsburgh's ability to run the ball down the stretch.  I'll go with Mike Tomlin.

6.  Green Bay's defense is it's biggest asset.  And I don't mean that as a negative for the Cheeseheads.  Raji, Hawk, Matthews, Woodson.  They have a scary squad.  Green Bay's defense can win this game but the problem I see for Green Bay is that the defense will HAVE to win this game for them. 

So I look at everything I have just typed and I see Pittsburgh winning this game, obviously.  But I have been a big Green Bay guy this season as you know.  Green Bay's defense can keep them in this game.  All that said, I think a field goal sounded about right so I predicted Pittsburgh by 3, and felt very comfortable with it.  As you know the spread opened up at Pack by 2.5.  I'm off by 5.5 points?  What?! 

I just don't see how Green Bay is favored in this game.  It makes absolutely no sense to me.  They looked pedestrian against Chicago.  Am I the only one who noticed that?  Apparently so.  And then I saw where all the money was going.  EVERYBODY is picking and betting on the Packers.  Everybody.  The spread movement shows that. 

The Vegas factor.  Vegas always predicts the Super Bowl.  They are experts on making a killing on it.  Vegas lost big on the Pack/Bears game because everybody is betting on the Packers.  So Vegas figured that because everybody thinks the Pack will win that Pack by 2.5 is the most enticing spread you can give to Packers supporters.  Vegas is betting on the Steelers and so am I.  Last time I checked, they weren't building new hotels there because gamblers were winning.

Steelers 31 - Packers 17.  Book it.