2010 Free Agent Class
Tonight at 12:01 EST begins the most important free agent period of my lifetime. While I’m not worried about the future of my team, the Lakers, several other teams and fan bases will be holding their collective breaths over the next several weeks and months. Looming over the entire process will be the unfortunate possibility of a work stoppage after this season. Guys like Dirk and Paul Pierce, who might have otherwise signed extensions, will now be turning to free agency to maximize their abilities to cash in. But more importantly, it’s not every year that the two most marketable guys in the league are free agents at the same time. Not to mention about half of the top 30 guys in the league. Here’s my guide to the cream of the crop:
LEBRON JAMES
Where he’ll go: Chicago Bulls
LeBron will go wherever he feels he has the best chance to win a championship. He hasn’t felt Cleveland to be that place for some time now. He’s marketable and will get exposure wherever he goes, so it’s not necessary for him to go to NY or LA. However, Cleveland is in a semi-rebuilding phase. There isn’t a piece on that team, outside of maybe Jamison or Hickson, that adds up to a championship pedigree. The saving grace for Cleveland, it hopes, would be hiring Brian Shaw, a LeBron favorite, and getting the most widely respected and capable salary cap guys in upper management, convincing him that the championship roster will be in place within the next two years.
I’m just not sure the above will happen. The situations in NY and Jersey are even worse, and he’s not going to Miami because he’ll be seen as needing Wade to win a championship when Wade won one already without him. No, Chicago seems to be the pick in LeBron’s eyes because he has a man crush on Derrick Rose. Rose is a stud PG, something LeBron hasn’t had, and Joakim Noah is a solid building block in the middle. The Bulls are already a playoff team without LeBron and he thinks he can push them over the top. Not to mention that he’d be doing it in another #23’s backyard. Thankfully he won’t be wearing that number anymore. Chicago makes sense to LeBron as a place to win a championship as soon as next year. That’s where he signs . . .
Where he should go: Cleveland Cavaliers
We know he’s not winning any time soon if he goes to the tri-state area, and he doesn’t want to be in Dwyane’s shadow, but I don’t think Chicago is the ticket either. Unless Bosh goes too, which he can’t unless LeBron takes a pay cut for reasons described below, it will be LeBron and Rose as the 1-2. Having to guys who need the ball to be productive as your two best players is good for fantasy basketball, not so much for real basketball. LeBron needs to go somewhere with a real coach, to whom he can, and is willing to defer. Teams don’t win when one guy has the ball 80% of the team and the rest of the team stands still, waiting to get the ball if he decides to pass. Yes, LeBron creates open shots, but there is no rhythm. Further, LeBron needs to go to a system where he either brings the ball up, or gets the ball on the move. Brian Shaw and the triangle offense could start things off in the right direction in Cleveland on all accounts, and one would have to think Cleveland would hire the best and the brightest to be in the front office (the anti-Danny Ferry). More importantly, in my opinion, LeBron will have no pressure on the home front if he stays in Cleveland. The fans will be so happy he stayed that any failure will be seen as that of the front office or his coach, or his supporting cast. He can make his hundreds of millions in peace and at home, never having to go outside of his comfort level and never having to deal with crazed New Yorkers or the shadow of the greatest to ever lace them up.
DWYANE WADE
Where he’ll go: Miami Heat
Two words . . . no taxes. Wade has his ring. He’s got the Miami scene. He has his foundations set up. All he needs is for Miami to sign one guy, giving him reason enough to stay. Miami will oblige.
Where he should go: Miami Heat
The weather’s nice. The city’s fun. And did I mention the taxes? Pat Riley may be tough, but he knows how to win. He needs to push hard for Bosh. A Bosh/Wade combo is a very nice start.
CHRIS BOSH
Where he’ll go: Chicago Bulls
I think Bosh gets talked into a LeBron/Bosh 1-2. It makes basketball sense, despite the fact that Bosh doesn’t want to play the 5 and Noah is not a true 5. Bosh will have to match up defensively with the big boys but more and more teams are going small so it’s not like he’s playing against Ewing, Olajuwon, and Robinson every week.
If the Bulls don’t sign LeBron, I think it’s even more likely that Bosh signs with the Bulls. They’ll be able to offer him max money in that case and he still fits nicely as the go to guy for Rose. Bosh is a nice fit for the Bulls.
Where he should go: Chicago Bulls/Miami Heat
If LeBron signs in Chicago, there’s not enough room for Bosh to get a max contract. Unlike Wade and LeBron, Bosh has to rely on his basketball for his sole means of money. The endorsements aren’t there for a guy who’s spent his career out of the limelight. If LeBron takes Chicago’s money, Bosh’s next logical move is to Miami to be Shaq Part II for Dwyane Wade’s Heat. Bosh can get near max money in Miami, which becomes close to max because of Florida’s tax system.
If LeBron doesn’t go to Chicago, Bosh can get max money from the Bulls. As stated above, Bosh is a very nice fit to play with a point guard like Derrick Rose. Additionally, Joakim Noah is there to take some of the pressure off of Bosh down low defensively, and the Bulls have a very nice bench. So if LeBron stays in Cleveland or goes to NY/NJ, Bosh can play for a contender and get his max deal in Chicago.
AMARE STOUDEMIRE
Where he’ll go: New York Knicks
If New York misses out on the top three, which I think they will because of its lack of additional talent, the team will be pressured to sign a guy with a big name. My NBA people in the know tell me Walsh is too smart for that, but I think he will be under so much pressure that he’ll have to go for the next best thing. The experts have him in New Jersey but I can’t see the Knicks settling for Boozer with all that money. Not good for Knicks fans.
Where he should go: Max Contract Land
If the Knicks sans Isiah Thomas at the helm aren’t going to drop a max contract on Amare then he should go to whoever will. Amare can’t play defense against the bigs in the league and it has been painfully obvious. If someone wants to pay him like a #1 guy, he should jump at the opportunity to cash in and try and prove everybody wrong, which he won’t. But at least he’ll be a nine-figure man in the meantime.
JOE JOHNSON
Where he’ll go: New York Knicks
See Amare except substitute “can’t play defense” for “disappears in big games.”
Where he should go: See Amare.
DIRK NOWITZKI
Where he’ll go: Dallas Mavericks
He wants a no trade clause and he’ll get that and more.
Where he should go: Dallas Mavericks
No reason to leave. Everybody loves playing for Cuban.
PAUL PIERCE
Where he’ll go: Boston Celtics
Not as sure a thing as Dirk in Dallas, but Boston can’t afford to lose him. The only way he leaves is if the Russian offers 150% of what he’s worth in which case Boston doesn’t match it. The Clippers won’t make that kind of offer to bring him home.
Where he should go: Boston Celtics
He helped bring them a championship and was the only one to show up the majority of the NBA Finals. With Rondo getting better, Pierce will be hard pressed to find a better place to play and a more friendly home crowd.
CARLOS BOOZER
Where he’ll go: New Jersey Nets
This isn’t a bad move for the Nets. While they would have loved to have drafted Wall, Boozer in 2010 and Carmelo in 2011 is not a bad combo. The Nets have tons of money and Boozer is solid.
Where he should go: New Jersey Nets
I think it makes sense for him to go somewhere with a legitimate 5 in Lopez as opposed to Okur. The Nets can give him the money he’s proven he’s in it for after the Cleveland debacle. This makes sense.
DAVID LEE
Where he’ll go: Utah Jazz
For too many reasons, but namely because the Jazz are smart and David Lee is a Jerry Sloan type of guy. He’s a steal in this year’s class and a good replacement for Boozer.
Where he should go: Utah Jazz
The Jazz will appreciate his work ethic and have the right fit with Deron Williams running the show and a deep bench in terms of bigs after Milsap was locked up as Boozer insurance last year. I like Lee and think he’s a good fit in Utah. And no, I’m not saying this because he’s white and it’s Utah.
RAY ALLEN
Where he’ll go: Chicago Bulls
He goes there if LeBron does because Chicago needs a 2 and Ray Allen is obsessed with getting his second ring ever since MJ told him getting one ring didn’t mean anything, it was about the second ring as far as being a true champion. He makes sense in Chicago if LeBron goes. If LeBron stays in Cleveland, Allen could end up there too, but I’d say it’s less likely as he’s on the decline. Though there will be pressure if LeBron stays to get a “win now” piece and Ray Ray could be just that.
Where he should go: Boston Celtics
Doc Rivers is staying, and despite Doc’s inability to play guys at the right time, he has proven to be a better than good X’s and O’s guy. Doc can get Ray Ray open looks and with Rondo coming into form, Pierce likely staying, and Avery Bradley’s joining the crew, I like Allen knocking down open 3’s unless his legs are completely shot (which could be the case).
So there you have it. 2010. Enjoy and stay tuned.
LEBRON JAMES
Where he’ll go: Chicago Bulls
LeBron will go wherever he feels he has the best chance to win a championship. He hasn’t felt Cleveland to be that place for some time now. He’s marketable and will get exposure wherever he goes, so it’s not necessary for him to go to NY or LA. However, Cleveland is in a semi-rebuilding phase. There isn’t a piece on that team, outside of maybe Jamison or Hickson, that adds up to a championship pedigree. The saving grace for Cleveland, it hopes, would be hiring Brian Shaw, a LeBron favorite, and getting the most widely respected and capable salary cap guys in upper management, convincing him that the championship roster will be in place within the next two years.
I’m just not sure the above will happen. The situations in NY and Jersey are even worse, and he’s not going to Miami because he’ll be seen as needing Wade to win a championship when Wade won one already without him. No, Chicago seems to be the pick in LeBron’s eyes because he has a man crush on Derrick Rose. Rose is a stud PG, something LeBron hasn’t had, and Joakim Noah is a solid building block in the middle. The Bulls are already a playoff team without LeBron and he thinks he can push them over the top. Not to mention that he’d be doing it in another #23’s backyard. Thankfully he won’t be wearing that number anymore. Chicago makes sense to LeBron as a place to win a championship as soon as next year. That’s where he signs . . .
Where he should go: Cleveland Cavaliers
We know he’s not winning any time soon if he goes to the tri-state area, and he doesn’t want to be in Dwyane’s shadow, but I don’t think Chicago is the ticket either. Unless Bosh goes too, which he can’t unless LeBron takes a pay cut for reasons described below, it will be LeBron and Rose as the 1-2. Having to guys who need the ball to be productive as your two best players is good for fantasy basketball, not so much for real basketball. LeBron needs to go somewhere with a real coach, to whom he can, and is willing to defer. Teams don’t win when one guy has the ball 80% of the team and the rest of the team stands still, waiting to get the ball if he decides to pass. Yes, LeBron creates open shots, but there is no rhythm. Further, LeBron needs to go to a system where he either brings the ball up, or gets the ball on the move. Brian Shaw and the triangle offense could start things off in the right direction in Cleveland on all accounts, and one would have to think Cleveland would hire the best and the brightest to be in the front office (the anti-Danny Ferry). More importantly, in my opinion, LeBron will have no pressure on the home front if he stays in Cleveland. The fans will be so happy he stayed that any failure will be seen as that of the front office or his coach, or his supporting cast. He can make his hundreds of millions in peace and at home, never having to go outside of his comfort level and never having to deal with crazed New Yorkers or the shadow of the greatest to ever lace them up.
DWYANE WADE
Where he’ll go: Miami Heat
Two words . . . no taxes. Wade has his ring. He’s got the Miami scene. He has his foundations set up. All he needs is for Miami to sign one guy, giving him reason enough to stay. Miami will oblige.
Where he should go: Miami Heat
The weather’s nice. The city’s fun. And did I mention the taxes? Pat Riley may be tough, but he knows how to win. He needs to push hard for Bosh. A Bosh/Wade combo is a very nice start.
CHRIS BOSH
Where he’ll go: Chicago Bulls
I think Bosh gets talked into a LeBron/Bosh 1-2. It makes basketball sense, despite the fact that Bosh doesn’t want to play the 5 and Noah is not a true 5. Bosh will have to match up defensively with the big boys but more and more teams are going small so it’s not like he’s playing against Ewing, Olajuwon, and Robinson every week.
If the Bulls don’t sign LeBron, I think it’s even more likely that Bosh signs with the Bulls. They’ll be able to offer him max money in that case and he still fits nicely as the go to guy for Rose. Bosh is a nice fit for the Bulls.
Where he should go: Chicago Bulls/Miami Heat
If LeBron signs in Chicago, there’s not enough room for Bosh to get a max contract. Unlike Wade and LeBron, Bosh has to rely on his basketball for his sole means of money. The endorsements aren’t there for a guy who’s spent his career out of the limelight. If LeBron takes Chicago’s money, Bosh’s next logical move is to Miami to be Shaq Part II for Dwyane Wade’s Heat. Bosh can get near max money in Miami, which becomes close to max because of Florida’s tax system.
If LeBron doesn’t go to Chicago, Bosh can get max money from the Bulls. As stated above, Bosh is a very nice fit to play with a point guard like Derrick Rose. Additionally, Joakim Noah is there to take some of the pressure off of Bosh down low defensively, and the Bulls have a very nice bench. So if LeBron stays in Cleveland or goes to NY/NJ, Bosh can play for a contender and get his max deal in Chicago.
AMARE STOUDEMIRE
Where he’ll go: New York Knicks
If New York misses out on the top three, which I think they will because of its lack of additional talent, the team will be pressured to sign a guy with a big name. My NBA people in the know tell me Walsh is too smart for that, but I think he will be under so much pressure that he’ll have to go for the next best thing. The experts have him in New Jersey but I can’t see the Knicks settling for Boozer with all that money. Not good for Knicks fans.
Where he should go: Max Contract Land
If the Knicks sans Isiah Thomas at the helm aren’t going to drop a max contract on Amare then he should go to whoever will. Amare can’t play defense against the bigs in the league and it has been painfully obvious. If someone wants to pay him like a #1 guy, he should jump at the opportunity to cash in and try and prove everybody wrong, which he won’t. But at least he’ll be a nine-figure man in the meantime.
JOE JOHNSON
Where he’ll go: New York Knicks
See Amare except substitute “can’t play defense” for “disappears in big games.”
Where he should go: See Amare.
DIRK NOWITZKI
Where he’ll go: Dallas Mavericks
He wants a no trade clause and he’ll get that and more.
Where he should go: Dallas Mavericks
No reason to leave. Everybody loves playing for Cuban.
PAUL PIERCE
Where he’ll go: Boston Celtics
Not as sure a thing as Dirk in Dallas, but Boston can’t afford to lose him. The only way he leaves is if the Russian offers 150% of what he’s worth in which case Boston doesn’t match it. The Clippers won’t make that kind of offer to bring him home.
Where he should go: Boston Celtics
He helped bring them a championship and was the only one to show up the majority of the NBA Finals. With Rondo getting better, Pierce will be hard pressed to find a better place to play and a more friendly home crowd.
CARLOS BOOZER
Where he’ll go: New Jersey Nets
This isn’t a bad move for the Nets. While they would have loved to have drafted Wall, Boozer in 2010 and Carmelo in 2011 is not a bad combo. The Nets have tons of money and Boozer is solid.
Where he should go: New Jersey Nets
I think it makes sense for him to go somewhere with a legitimate 5 in Lopez as opposed to Okur. The Nets can give him the money he’s proven he’s in it for after the Cleveland debacle. This makes sense.
DAVID LEE
Where he’ll go: Utah Jazz
For too many reasons, but namely because the Jazz are smart and David Lee is a Jerry Sloan type of guy. He’s a steal in this year’s class and a good replacement for Boozer.
Where he should go: Utah Jazz
The Jazz will appreciate his work ethic and have the right fit with Deron Williams running the show and a deep bench in terms of bigs after Milsap was locked up as Boozer insurance last year. I like Lee and think he’s a good fit in Utah. And no, I’m not saying this because he’s white and it’s Utah.
RAY ALLEN
Where he’ll go: Chicago Bulls
He goes there if LeBron does because Chicago needs a 2 and Ray Allen is obsessed with getting his second ring ever since MJ told him getting one ring didn’t mean anything, it was about the second ring as far as being a true champion. He makes sense in Chicago if LeBron goes. If LeBron stays in Cleveland, Allen could end up there too, but I’d say it’s less likely as he’s on the decline. Though there will be pressure if LeBron stays to get a “win now” piece and Ray Ray could be just that.
Where he should go: Boston Celtics
Doc Rivers is staying, and despite Doc’s inability to play guys at the right time, he has proven to be a better than good X’s and O’s guy. Doc can get Ray Ray open looks and with Rondo coming into form, Pierce likely staying, and Avery Bradley’s joining the crew, I like Allen knocking down open 3’s unless his legs are completely shot (which could be the case).
So there you have it. 2010. Enjoy and stay tuned.
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