It's Madness!
I've put a lot of work into this, which means I will have wasted hours upon hours giving you this preview when I should have just gone with my little sister's picks. On the bright side, I know enough about every team now to feel stupid when I find out I went with the wrong team. Here are some updated rules I go with:
1. Never pick a 1, 2, or 3 seed to lose in the first round. If on the off chance you're right, congratulations, you got a point. If in the likely event you're wrong, you just lost a point to the entire field. Play the odds here. If you really think a 1, 2, or 3 seed is going to lose its first round game, just pick them to advance to the second round and lose there.
2. When picking a high seed to upset a strong team, make sure your high seed is a 3-point shooting team. Those slow it down and play physical teams don't pull upsets. Teams with shooters pull upsets. I promise.
3. Don't pick a team whose GPA is its best stat. In other words, don't pick Cornell unless they all of a sudden turn this into an academic decathlon. I'm pretty sure I look like Cornell's point guard. . . or not, but I bet you just googled the guy to make sure. Bad sign when I can look like your potential pick's point guard.
4. Do your initial research. Read all of your trusted sources. Then make your picks. After this process, do NOT watch anymore coverage until tip-off because I promise you'll hear some moron say something that sounds bright, talk you out of a pick, and in doing so cost you points. I never do and it always costs me. I just read Joe Lunardi's scouting reports after watching a couple specials. I should be done. But I'm not. I'm pretty sure I'll have about 387,994 different brackets with the last one coming Thursday at 8:42 a.m.
5. Assess the major conferences before making your picks. It's important to have a good first few rounds, but if you don't get the national champion right, you don't win your bracket. The best way to evaluate a team is by how it performed against solid competition and how consistent it was. If a team played in a crap conference, odds are it won't be tested enough for the big games down the stretch. Sorry ACC.
6. Games in the tourney can come down to the marquee players. Your team should have at least two of them, maybe three. I know what you're thinking, Carmelo Anthony. Go back and look at that team. Gerry McNamara was a great player and Hakim Warrick made huge plays down the stretch as well.
7. Pick at least one 12-seed.
8. Don't pick teams limping into the tournament. So, leave the Texas/Wake game blank I guess.
9. Make sure your national champion wins its games by a large margin, that the difference between its FG% and FG% against is at least 6%, and that it has had at least one large winning streak this season.
10. Go with my sister's picks.
P.S. It's not good when the only news your school is making during March Madness is a dropped felony charge against your senior forward.
WEST REGIONAL
1st Round
1 Syracuse over 16 Vermont
Rule #1.
2 Kansas State over 15 North Texas
Rule #1.
3 Pittsburgh over 14 Oakland
Rule #1.
4 Vanderbilt over 13 Murray State
Not as easy a pick as the seeds would indicate. Murray State is very capable and will pressure Vanderbilt. I just think that Vanderbilt is too balanced with too good a coaching staff to lose this game. Vandy in a close one.
12 UTEP over 5 Butler
This isn't as good a defensive team or shooting team as we're used to seeing from Butler. And I can promise you they didn't want to see Derrick Caracter in the first round. Butler is a solid team but UTEP is an athletic team that can bang. UTEP in my first 5 vs. 12 upset.
11 Minnesota over 6 Xavier
I do like Xavier but they don't take care of the ball. Both teams can shoot and I like Xavier's backcourt as an underrated force. Both of these teams can advance to the Sweet 16 but I'll take Minnesota's ability to take care of the ball and Tubby Smith as an X-factor on the bench.
7 BYU over 10 Florida
If it wasn't for that losing streak BYU has going in the tournament, I'd call this a lock. Florida can't shoot, won't take advantage of BYU inside and likely get rained on from beyond the arc. But BYU does like to lose in this tournament. Today's another day though.
8 Gonzaga over 9 Florida State
I'm not too high on Gonzaga this season and Florida State is actually a slight betting favorite in the game, but the Zags FT shooting won't hurt them because the Noles can't shoot either, and that 0.83 assist to turnover ratio for Florida State coupled with all of those freshmen and sophomores swings me to the Zags' side. Bouldin carries them to their one tournament win this year.
2nd Round
1 Syracuse over 8 Gonzaga
Too much for the Zags. Even with the injury to Onuaku. The Zags don't have the guns to punish the Orange for a lack of depth.
2 Kansas State over 7 BYU
I almost went with BYU here but I think K-State is a bad match-up for the Cougars. The Wildcats can run with BYU and more importantly they will punish BYU on the offensive boards. I would not be surprised at all if BYU won this game but I like Kansas State willing itself to a win.
11 Minnesota over 3 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is a very inexperienced squad while Minnesota has shown its grit down the stretch. Minnesota ran out of steam in the Big 10 title game but I see them shooting the lights out in this game while Pittsburgh will struggle to score against a lengthy defense.
4 Vanderbilt over 12 UTEP
Vandy will get to the rim relentlessly. While Caracter will have been able to take advantage of Butler down low, he will have no such luck against Vandy. UTEP is not an easy out but Vanderbilt is far better than the Commodores are being given credit for. You'll remember the name A.J. Ogilvy before this tournament is over.
Sweet 16
1 Syracuse over 4 Vanderbilt
I betting on Onuaku's quad being as hurt as Ty Lawson's ankle was in last year's tournament. If that's the case then Vanderbilt will have a tough time breaking 'Cuse's zone. Syracuse gets out in transition in this one and wins by around 10.
2 Kansas State over 11 Minnesota
If this game comes to pass it will be a great clash of styles. I'll take the intensity of Kansas State over the silkiness of Minnesota. Although I think K-State Coach Frank Martin's head may have exploded by this point.
Elite 8
1 Syracuse over 2 Kansas State
What Kansas State lacks in talent it makes up for with effort. However, the difference in talent between the Wildcats and Orange is too wide to go against the Orange. As it went down against a more talented Kansas team, so it will come to pass against a more talented Orange team. Kansas State keeps it close but Syracuse outclasses the Wildcats in the end.
MIDWEST REGIONAL
1st Round
1 Kansas over 16 Lehigh
Rule #1.
2 Ohio State over 15 UCSB
Rule #1.
3 Georgetown over 14 Ohio
Rule #1.
4 Maryland over 13 Houston
Houston has a 42% FG percentage and 46% FG percentage against. Oh, and Maryland has Greivis Vazquez. Expect a 3-point parade out of the Terps in this one.
5 Michigan State over 12 New Mexico State
Kalin Lucas and company will wear NMSU down with their half court defense. NMSU likes to get out and run but the Spartans are too athletic to let that be a problem. Michigan State will dictate the pace and Kalin Lucas will lead his squad to victory.
11 San Diego State over 6 Tennessee
The Aztecs play some good defense on the perimeter and Tennessee can't shoot. That's a bad combo for the Volunteers. I'm not too fond of either of these teams and while I respect the job Bruce Pearl has done since releasing Tyler Smith, his upsets have not swayed me enough to think that his squad can score consistently. Aztecs in a messy one.
7 Oklahoma State over 10 Georgia Tech
James Anderson may look as intimidating as your insurance salesman but he's more deadly than the venom in a rattlesnake. Give him an inch and he'll exploit it. Georgia Tech had a nice run in the ACC tournament but I think they turn the ball over too often to sneak past the Cowboys. Go Pokes!
9 Northern Iowa over 8 UNLV
It's not good when you don't have a low post threat and your team can't shoot from outside. Lon Kruger may be a genius but that's a tough hill to climb. Northern Iowa wears down the Runnin' Rebels in a tight one.
Second Round
1 Kansas over 9 Northern Iowa
Simply put, 9 seeds don't win this game pretty much ever. On top of that, Northern Iowa is not nearly talented enough to hang with the Jayhawks.
2 Ohio State over 7 Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have proven that they can play with anyone in the nation, but Evan Turner is not losing in the second round. If you've seen him play then I don't need to further explain.
3 Georgetown over 11 San Diego State
JT3 has figured out how to incorporate the Princeton offense into his own version of the dribble penetration motion. Monroe is as solid as they get and SDSU just has no answer. Hoyas in a walkover.
4 Maryland over 5 Michigan State
The Spartans have limped to the finish line and while I keep hearing people pick the Spartans because of Tom Izzo's magic-like abilities on the sideline, I just don't see how this team transforms overnight in order to beat a solid team led by an All-American.
Sweet 16
1 Kansas over 4 Maryland
Kansas has more than enough players to through at Vazquez. Maryland is not the kind of team to take Kansas out of its comfort zone. This game will be played at a fast pace, which will play right into the Jayhawks' hands.
2 Ohio State over 3 Georgetown
Georgetown has shown that it can beat anybody on any given day but that it can be inconsistent at the worst possible times. If there is a player in this tournament who can punish that kind of lapse, it's Evan Turner. He is the reason that I made a run at the Buckeyes at 100-1 a few months ago to win it all. Ohio State has Evan Turner and the perimeter side dishes to win it all. They don't lose before their seed dictates.
Elite 8
1 Kansas over 2 Ohio State
As much as I love Evan Turner and the Buckeyes, I just think the Jayhawks are a bad match-up. I don't think Ohio State can defend them for 40 minutes and I think Kansas is strong enough and talented enough on the wing to at least contain Evan Turner. Chalk in this region.
SOUTH REGIONAL
1st Round
1 Duke over 16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
See Rule #1.
2 Villanova over 15 Robert Morris
See Rule #1.
3 Baylor over 14 Sam Houston State
See Rule #1.
4 Purdue over 13 Siena
When I saw this match-up my gut told me to go with Siena. Purdue has struggled mightily without Hummel but they still have a gifted player in E-Twaun Moore. Great name and the ability to break Siena's three-quarter court press will be the reason Purdue ekes by.
12 Utah State over 5 Texas A&M
Texas A&M can't shoot from the outside and Utah State can. In a game featuring two solid defensive teams, I'll take the team that can knock its shots down from inside and outside.
11 Old Dominion over 6 Notre Dame
Old Dominion's zone defense may not be as good as Syracuse's but the combination of not doubling onto Harangody from the man-to-man set combinde with Notre Dame's inability to figure out how it's going to run its offense again without being too vanilla leads me to this upset pick.
7 Richmond over 10 Saint Mary's
While Saint Mary's has the ability to punish Richmond on the glass, I think Richmond's perimeter defense will be the key to this game. The Gaels win because they shoot the 3-ball at such a high clip but Richmond allows opponents to under 30% from long distance. Saint Mary's can't win this game without a lot of 3's and I don't see them coming against the Spiders.
8 California over 9 Louisville
The Pac-10 may have been horrible but Cal is a legitimate team with veterans all over the court. Cal is going to break Louisville's pressure defense down and use guard play to overwhelm the Cardinals. Cal by a few.
Second Round
1 Duke over 8 California
Duke's Big Three will just flat out overwhelm the Bears. Duke is more talented than Cal and it will show. No brainer.
2 Villanova over 7 Richmond
I would not be at all surprised if Richmond were to win this game. Villanova has crawled to the finish line but won't be punished for its lack of size against the Spiders. Scottie Reynolds is a special player and will lead 'Nova to victory.
3 Baylor over 11 Old Dominion
Baylor is a very scary team. And what may make them scarier is that they're coming from nowhere. I'm guessing nobody saw this coming for the Bears this season. Old Dominion's inability to shoot from the outside will be its downfall here. Baylor by double digits.
12 Utah State over 4 Purdue
The Aggies will win this battle of the half court defense/motion offense teams. This is the game where Purdue will miss Hummel as their offense will fail to get off the ground. Utah State is much better than that 12 seed.
Sweet 16
1 Duke over 12 Utah State
Utah State wins because of its defense but Coach K's teams always find a way to have perfect floor spacing and the Blue Devils will find enough ways to score some points against the stingy Aggie defense. Utah State will not fare as well on the other end of the court. Duke in a low scoring game.
3 Baylor over 2 Villanova
I'll take the hot team headed into a battle like this. Villanova may want to apply pressure but they'll be playing right into Baylor's hands. The Bears love to play an up tempo brand of basketball and Villanova will afford them that luxury. The Bears are peaking at the right time and I see an Elite Eight run as the result.
Elite 8
1 Duke over 3 Baylor
Too much experience even if I don't like Duke all that much in general. But the Dukies found their way into the easiest bracket and the combination of the moment and the Blue Devils' defense will get to Baylor in this one. Baylor can turn the ball over in a normal game. I have a feeling the bug will creep up in the Elite 8.
EAST REGIONAL
First Round
1 Kentucky over 16 East Tennessee State
See Rule #1.
2 West Virginia over 15 Morgan State
See Rule #1.
3 New Mexico over 14 Montana
See Rule #1.
4 Wisconsin over 13 Wofford
Wofford is a great story. They'll probably have their whole school at the game. But Wisconsin plays great tournament basketball with Bo Ryan at the helm. Wisconsin is just a plain old solid team and they cruise in the first round.
5 Temple over 12 Cornell
Am I the only one who remembers Cornell getting spanked? How about Temple being way underrated here? I just don't see the Cornell upset everybody else seems to be picking.
6 Marquette over 11 Washington
While I would love to take Washington here, they're just too inconsistent. The Huskies don't seem to turn it on until late and while I love Pondexter and Thomas, Marquette is too solid a team to lose this one.
10 Missouri over 7 Clemson
This will be a very fun game to watch with both teams choosing to forego any type of slowdown. It will be the Gatti/Ward of the first round with both teams throwing caution to the wind throughout. I like Missouri because Clemson is nowhere near the same team away from home as the Tigers are at Littlejohn.
8 Texas over 9 Wake Forest
I'll take the more talented team that has zero chance of winning as second game. Both teams are playing horribly and I would have gone against either if they were not playing each other.
Second Round
1 Kentucky over 8 Texas
Texas hasn't been able to beat anyone in the last 6 weeks. I don't see that changing against Kentucky. You shouldn't either.
2 West Virginia over 10 Missouri
West Virginia is just too good up front and Missouri is going to miss DeMarre Carroll in this game. Even if Butler is off I think West Virginia can still squeeze through.
6 Marquette over 3 New Mexico
Both teams struggle against opponents with size so both are lucky in getting a break in the second round. New Mexico has had a great season but Buzz Williams' team will get off from the 3-point line in this one to beat the Lobos.
5 Temple over 4 Wisconsin
Temple has trouble when it runs into a high scoring team. That won't be the case against Wisconsin. Temple will be able to clog the lane and use the bigs to wear the Badgers down.
Sweet 16
1 Kentucky over 5 Temple
Temple is a great team and I almost picked the Owls here but I just couldn't go against the Wall/Cousins duo. Those guys are just too good and Wall has a knack for knowing when to take the game over, usually around the 8-minute mark in the second half.
2 West Virginia over 6 Marquette
I think West Virginia is a tad overrated but Marquette isn't talented enough to be the team that knocks them off. Honestly, I'd be less surprised if Missouri beat the Mountaineers than if Marquette pulled it off.
Elite 8
1 Kentucky over 2 West Virginia
Am I really going with four #1 seeds? In the words of Sarah Palin, you betcha! Kentucky will use its 3-2 motion offense with the dribble hand-off/dribble backdoor to get to the rim against West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a bad habit of starting slow and they won't be able to get away with it against Kentucky. I know everybody says Kentucky is too young but when you have two freshmen who have carried a team at a school like Kentucky where basketball is all that the people eat and sleep, they're not inexperienced this time of year. Witness the SEC Tournament.
FINAL FOUR
1 Kansas over 1 Syracuse
Kansas is just better at every position than Syracuse. I don't think Bill Self will let the Jayhawks fall in love with the long ball in this game and the Jayhawks both with Cole Aldrich and dribble penetration will get inside and break apart the zone.
1 Kentucky over 1 Duke
Duke's overwhelming teams with talent will end in this round. Duke is just plain too slow to keep up with Kentucky. If I didn't think Baylor would get frazzled by the big stage I'd have the Bears here but it's Duke that takes its beating against Kentucky.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
1 Kansas over 1 Kentucky
Not exactly going against the grain but these are the 2 best teams in the nation and they fit all of my criteria. I like Kansas more because of the defense. Kentucky plays good D too but not as good as the Jayhawks'. Combine that with my not wanting to go against Sherron Collins and you have my National Champion. Plus, Calipari could get sanctioned by the NCAA at any point.
So there you have it. Enjoy!
1. Never pick a 1, 2, or 3 seed to lose in the first round. If on the off chance you're right, congratulations, you got a point. If in the likely event you're wrong, you just lost a point to the entire field. Play the odds here. If you really think a 1, 2, or 3 seed is going to lose its first round game, just pick them to advance to the second round and lose there.
2. When picking a high seed to upset a strong team, make sure your high seed is a 3-point shooting team. Those slow it down and play physical teams don't pull upsets. Teams with shooters pull upsets. I promise.
3. Don't pick a team whose GPA is its best stat. In other words, don't pick Cornell unless they all of a sudden turn this into an academic decathlon. I'm pretty sure I look like Cornell's point guard. . . or not, but I bet you just googled the guy to make sure. Bad sign when I can look like your potential pick's point guard.
4. Do your initial research. Read all of your trusted sources. Then make your picks. After this process, do NOT watch anymore coverage until tip-off because I promise you'll hear some moron say something that sounds bright, talk you out of a pick, and in doing so cost you points. I never do and it always costs me. I just read Joe Lunardi's scouting reports after watching a couple specials. I should be done. But I'm not. I'm pretty sure I'll have about 387,994 different brackets with the last one coming Thursday at 8:42 a.m.
5. Assess the major conferences before making your picks. It's important to have a good first few rounds, but if you don't get the national champion right, you don't win your bracket. The best way to evaluate a team is by how it performed against solid competition and how consistent it was. If a team played in a crap conference, odds are it won't be tested enough for the big games down the stretch. Sorry ACC.
6. Games in the tourney can come down to the marquee players. Your team should have at least two of them, maybe three. I know what you're thinking, Carmelo Anthony. Go back and look at that team. Gerry McNamara was a great player and Hakim Warrick made huge plays down the stretch as well.
7. Pick at least one 12-seed.
8. Don't pick teams limping into the tournament. So, leave the Texas/Wake game blank I guess.
9. Make sure your national champion wins its games by a large margin, that the difference between its FG% and FG% against is at least 6%, and that it has had at least one large winning streak this season.
10. Go with my sister's picks.
P.S. It's not good when the only news your school is making during March Madness is a dropped felony charge against your senior forward.
WEST REGIONAL
1st Round
1 Syracuse over 16 Vermont
Rule #1.
2 Kansas State over 15 North Texas
Rule #1.
3 Pittsburgh over 14 Oakland
Rule #1.
4 Vanderbilt over 13 Murray State
Not as easy a pick as the seeds would indicate. Murray State is very capable and will pressure Vanderbilt. I just think that Vanderbilt is too balanced with too good a coaching staff to lose this game. Vandy in a close one.
12 UTEP over 5 Butler
This isn't as good a defensive team or shooting team as we're used to seeing from Butler. And I can promise you they didn't want to see Derrick Caracter in the first round. Butler is a solid team but UTEP is an athletic team that can bang. UTEP in my first 5 vs. 12 upset.
11 Minnesota over 6 Xavier
I do like Xavier but they don't take care of the ball. Both teams can shoot and I like Xavier's backcourt as an underrated force. Both of these teams can advance to the Sweet 16 but I'll take Minnesota's ability to take care of the ball and Tubby Smith as an X-factor on the bench.
7 BYU over 10 Florida
If it wasn't for that losing streak BYU has going in the tournament, I'd call this a lock. Florida can't shoot, won't take advantage of BYU inside and likely get rained on from beyond the arc. But BYU does like to lose in this tournament. Today's another day though.
8 Gonzaga over 9 Florida State
I'm not too high on Gonzaga this season and Florida State is actually a slight betting favorite in the game, but the Zags FT shooting won't hurt them because the Noles can't shoot either, and that 0.83 assist to turnover ratio for Florida State coupled with all of those freshmen and sophomores swings me to the Zags' side. Bouldin carries them to their one tournament win this year.
2nd Round
1 Syracuse over 8 Gonzaga
Too much for the Zags. Even with the injury to Onuaku. The Zags don't have the guns to punish the Orange for a lack of depth.
2 Kansas State over 7 BYU
I almost went with BYU here but I think K-State is a bad match-up for the Cougars. The Wildcats can run with BYU and more importantly they will punish BYU on the offensive boards. I would not be surprised at all if BYU won this game but I like Kansas State willing itself to a win.
11 Minnesota over 3 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is a very inexperienced squad while Minnesota has shown its grit down the stretch. Minnesota ran out of steam in the Big 10 title game but I see them shooting the lights out in this game while Pittsburgh will struggle to score against a lengthy defense.
4 Vanderbilt over 12 UTEP
Vandy will get to the rim relentlessly. While Caracter will have been able to take advantage of Butler down low, he will have no such luck against Vandy. UTEP is not an easy out but Vanderbilt is far better than the Commodores are being given credit for. You'll remember the name A.J. Ogilvy before this tournament is over.
Sweet 16
1 Syracuse over 4 Vanderbilt
I betting on Onuaku's quad being as hurt as Ty Lawson's ankle was in last year's tournament. If that's the case then Vanderbilt will have a tough time breaking 'Cuse's zone. Syracuse gets out in transition in this one and wins by around 10.
2 Kansas State over 11 Minnesota
If this game comes to pass it will be a great clash of styles. I'll take the intensity of Kansas State over the silkiness of Minnesota. Although I think K-State Coach Frank Martin's head may have exploded by this point.
Elite 8
1 Syracuse over 2 Kansas State
What Kansas State lacks in talent it makes up for with effort. However, the difference in talent between the Wildcats and Orange is too wide to go against the Orange. As it went down against a more talented Kansas team, so it will come to pass against a more talented Orange team. Kansas State keeps it close but Syracuse outclasses the Wildcats in the end.
MIDWEST REGIONAL
1st Round
1 Kansas over 16 Lehigh
Rule #1.
2 Ohio State over 15 UCSB
Rule #1.
3 Georgetown over 14 Ohio
Rule #1.
4 Maryland over 13 Houston
Houston has a 42% FG percentage and 46% FG percentage against. Oh, and Maryland has Greivis Vazquez. Expect a 3-point parade out of the Terps in this one.
5 Michigan State over 12 New Mexico State
Kalin Lucas and company will wear NMSU down with their half court defense. NMSU likes to get out and run but the Spartans are too athletic to let that be a problem. Michigan State will dictate the pace and Kalin Lucas will lead his squad to victory.
11 San Diego State over 6 Tennessee
The Aztecs play some good defense on the perimeter and Tennessee can't shoot. That's a bad combo for the Volunteers. I'm not too fond of either of these teams and while I respect the job Bruce Pearl has done since releasing Tyler Smith, his upsets have not swayed me enough to think that his squad can score consistently. Aztecs in a messy one.
7 Oklahoma State over 10 Georgia Tech
James Anderson may look as intimidating as your insurance salesman but he's more deadly than the venom in a rattlesnake. Give him an inch and he'll exploit it. Georgia Tech had a nice run in the ACC tournament but I think they turn the ball over too often to sneak past the Cowboys. Go Pokes!
9 Northern Iowa over 8 UNLV
It's not good when you don't have a low post threat and your team can't shoot from outside. Lon Kruger may be a genius but that's a tough hill to climb. Northern Iowa wears down the Runnin' Rebels in a tight one.
Second Round
1 Kansas over 9 Northern Iowa
Simply put, 9 seeds don't win this game pretty much ever. On top of that, Northern Iowa is not nearly talented enough to hang with the Jayhawks.
2 Ohio State over 7 Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have proven that they can play with anyone in the nation, but Evan Turner is not losing in the second round. If you've seen him play then I don't need to further explain.
3 Georgetown over 11 San Diego State
JT3 has figured out how to incorporate the Princeton offense into his own version of the dribble penetration motion. Monroe is as solid as they get and SDSU just has no answer. Hoyas in a walkover.
4 Maryland over 5 Michigan State
The Spartans have limped to the finish line and while I keep hearing people pick the Spartans because of Tom Izzo's magic-like abilities on the sideline, I just don't see how this team transforms overnight in order to beat a solid team led by an All-American.
Sweet 16
1 Kansas over 4 Maryland
Kansas has more than enough players to through at Vazquez. Maryland is not the kind of team to take Kansas out of its comfort zone. This game will be played at a fast pace, which will play right into the Jayhawks' hands.
2 Ohio State over 3 Georgetown
Georgetown has shown that it can beat anybody on any given day but that it can be inconsistent at the worst possible times. If there is a player in this tournament who can punish that kind of lapse, it's Evan Turner. He is the reason that I made a run at the Buckeyes at 100-1 a few months ago to win it all. Ohio State has Evan Turner and the perimeter side dishes to win it all. They don't lose before their seed dictates.
Elite 8
1 Kansas over 2 Ohio State
As much as I love Evan Turner and the Buckeyes, I just think the Jayhawks are a bad match-up. I don't think Ohio State can defend them for 40 minutes and I think Kansas is strong enough and talented enough on the wing to at least contain Evan Turner. Chalk in this region.
SOUTH REGIONAL
1st Round
1 Duke over 16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
See Rule #1.
2 Villanova over 15 Robert Morris
See Rule #1.
3 Baylor over 14 Sam Houston State
See Rule #1.
4 Purdue over 13 Siena
When I saw this match-up my gut told me to go with Siena. Purdue has struggled mightily without Hummel but they still have a gifted player in E-Twaun Moore. Great name and the ability to break Siena's three-quarter court press will be the reason Purdue ekes by.
12 Utah State over 5 Texas A&M
Texas A&M can't shoot from the outside and Utah State can. In a game featuring two solid defensive teams, I'll take the team that can knock its shots down from inside and outside.
11 Old Dominion over 6 Notre Dame
Old Dominion's zone defense may not be as good as Syracuse's but the combination of not doubling onto Harangody from the man-to-man set combinde with Notre Dame's inability to figure out how it's going to run its offense again without being too vanilla leads me to this upset pick.
7 Richmond over 10 Saint Mary's
While Saint Mary's has the ability to punish Richmond on the glass, I think Richmond's perimeter defense will be the key to this game. The Gaels win because they shoot the 3-ball at such a high clip but Richmond allows opponents to under 30% from long distance. Saint Mary's can't win this game without a lot of 3's and I don't see them coming against the Spiders.
8 California over 9 Louisville
The Pac-10 may have been horrible but Cal is a legitimate team with veterans all over the court. Cal is going to break Louisville's pressure defense down and use guard play to overwhelm the Cardinals. Cal by a few.
Second Round
1 Duke over 8 California
Duke's Big Three will just flat out overwhelm the Bears. Duke is more talented than Cal and it will show. No brainer.
2 Villanova over 7 Richmond
I would not be at all surprised if Richmond were to win this game. Villanova has crawled to the finish line but won't be punished for its lack of size against the Spiders. Scottie Reynolds is a special player and will lead 'Nova to victory.
3 Baylor over 11 Old Dominion
Baylor is a very scary team. And what may make them scarier is that they're coming from nowhere. I'm guessing nobody saw this coming for the Bears this season. Old Dominion's inability to shoot from the outside will be its downfall here. Baylor by double digits.
12 Utah State over 4 Purdue
The Aggies will win this battle of the half court defense/motion offense teams. This is the game where Purdue will miss Hummel as their offense will fail to get off the ground. Utah State is much better than that 12 seed.
Sweet 16
1 Duke over 12 Utah State
Utah State wins because of its defense but Coach K's teams always find a way to have perfect floor spacing and the Blue Devils will find enough ways to score some points against the stingy Aggie defense. Utah State will not fare as well on the other end of the court. Duke in a low scoring game.
3 Baylor over 2 Villanova
I'll take the hot team headed into a battle like this. Villanova may want to apply pressure but they'll be playing right into Baylor's hands. The Bears love to play an up tempo brand of basketball and Villanova will afford them that luxury. The Bears are peaking at the right time and I see an Elite Eight run as the result.
Elite 8
1 Duke over 3 Baylor
Too much experience even if I don't like Duke all that much in general. But the Dukies found their way into the easiest bracket and the combination of the moment and the Blue Devils' defense will get to Baylor in this one. Baylor can turn the ball over in a normal game. I have a feeling the bug will creep up in the Elite 8.
EAST REGIONAL
First Round
1 Kentucky over 16 East Tennessee State
See Rule #1.
2 West Virginia over 15 Morgan State
See Rule #1.
3 New Mexico over 14 Montana
See Rule #1.
4 Wisconsin over 13 Wofford
Wofford is a great story. They'll probably have their whole school at the game. But Wisconsin plays great tournament basketball with Bo Ryan at the helm. Wisconsin is just a plain old solid team and they cruise in the first round.
5 Temple over 12 Cornell
Am I the only one who remembers Cornell getting spanked? How about Temple being way underrated here? I just don't see the Cornell upset everybody else seems to be picking.
6 Marquette over 11 Washington
While I would love to take Washington here, they're just too inconsistent. The Huskies don't seem to turn it on until late and while I love Pondexter and Thomas, Marquette is too solid a team to lose this one.
10 Missouri over 7 Clemson
This will be a very fun game to watch with both teams choosing to forego any type of slowdown. It will be the Gatti/Ward of the first round with both teams throwing caution to the wind throughout. I like Missouri because Clemson is nowhere near the same team away from home as the Tigers are at Littlejohn.
8 Texas over 9 Wake Forest
I'll take the more talented team that has zero chance of winning as second game. Both teams are playing horribly and I would have gone against either if they were not playing each other.
Second Round
1 Kentucky over 8 Texas
Texas hasn't been able to beat anyone in the last 6 weeks. I don't see that changing against Kentucky. You shouldn't either.
2 West Virginia over 10 Missouri
West Virginia is just too good up front and Missouri is going to miss DeMarre Carroll in this game. Even if Butler is off I think West Virginia can still squeeze through.
6 Marquette over 3 New Mexico
Both teams struggle against opponents with size so both are lucky in getting a break in the second round. New Mexico has had a great season but Buzz Williams' team will get off from the 3-point line in this one to beat the Lobos.
5 Temple over 4 Wisconsin
Temple has trouble when it runs into a high scoring team. That won't be the case against Wisconsin. Temple will be able to clog the lane and use the bigs to wear the Badgers down.
Sweet 16
1 Kentucky over 5 Temple
Temple is a great team and I almost picked the Owls here but I just couldn't go against the Wall/Cousins duo. Those guys are just too good and Wall has a knack for knowing when to take the game over, usually around the 8-minute mark in the second half.
2 West Virginia over 6 Marquette
I think West Virginia is a tad overrated but Marquette isn't talented enough to be the team that knocks them off. Honestly, I'd be less surprised if Missouri beat the Mountaineers than if Marquette pulled it off.
Elite 8
1 Kentucky over 2 West Virginia
Am I really going with four #1 seeds? In the words of Sarah Palin, you betcha! Kentucky will use its 3-2 motion offense with the dribble hand-off/dribble backdoor to get to the rim against West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a bad habit of starting slow and they won't be able to get away with it against Kentucky. I know everybody says Kentucky is too young but when you have two freshmen who have carried a team at a school like Kentucky where basketball is all that the people eat and sleep, they're not inexperienced this time of year. Witness the SEC Tournament.
FINAL FOUR
1 Kansas over 1 Syracuse
Kansas is just better at every position than Syracuse. I don't think Bill Self will let the Jayhawks fall in love with the long ball in this game and the Jayhawks both with Cole Aldrich and dribble penetration will get inside and break apart the zone.
1 Kentucky over 1 Duke
Duke's overwhelming teams with talent will end in this round. Duke is just plain too slow to keep up with Kentucky. If I didn't think Baylor would get frazzled by the big stage I'd have the Bears here but it's Duke that takes its beating against Kentucky.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
1 Kansas over 1 Kentucky
Not exactly going against the grain but these are the 2 best teams in the nation and they fit all of my criteria. I like Kansas more because of the defense. Kentucky plays good D too but not as good as the Jayhawks'. Combine that with my not wanting to go against Sherron Collins and you have my National Champion. Plus, Calipari could get sanctioned by the NCAA at any point.
So there you have it. Enjoy!
Love it! Just wanted to make sure I'm the younger sis you're referring to =)
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