Fantasy Football Preview '09
NOTE: Sorry for the delay, but I wanted to give you all a decent preview and I've been out sick unfortunately for the last several days.
It's funny, I've enjoyed by far my greatest fantasy successes in football and it is the fantasy sport that I put the least amount of effort into. I guess it's no coincidence that fantasy football is the game that requires the most luck. For instance, a couple of years ago I targeted Tom Brady in the third round and he went nuts on the league for an entire season. Last year someone else got him in the first round and got all of one game out of him to completely take my friend's team out of contention. All of that being said, I have some rules that I abide by with fantasy football, so I'll give them to you. I'll also throw in some of my top guys, sleepers, and avoid at all cost guys. Here goes.
(This is all assuming you have a traditional league with 4 points per passing TD and 6 per rec/rushing TD)
RULE #1
Do NOT pick a QB in the first round. There is a far greater chance of that coming back to bite you than the pick serving to reward you. The only way this pick is worth it is if you get a 45 TD season out of your QB. QB is the position that you can always fill with lower round/waiver guys. Every year there's a Tyler Thigpen that nobody's heard of. I'm not saying that Drew Brees/Peyton Manning/Tom Brady are not amazing and locks for good or great seasons. I'm saying that there are a lot of QB's who can put up points that can win you a league and you won't be using first, second, or even third round picks on them. If you pick a first round QB and he goes down, you lose the QB position and the RB position because you didn't get that first round RB.
RULE #2
Get either 2 RB's or 1 RB and 1 WR in the first two rounds. This season I would probably go with the 1 and 1 version though. There are only a few sure thing receivers and there are a lot of running backs sharing the load. But, that being said, you still need one of the marquis running backs. Because of the drop in talent between the first several guys and the rest, you need a guy that you can count on for 100 yard/1 TD potential every week. If you can wind up with Stephen Jackson and Andre Johnson as your first two picks, you're not winning the league yet, but you've put yourself in a position to do so. In other words, you haven't shot yourself in the foot the way the guy who took Drew Brees and Randy Moss with his first two picks did.
RULE #3
Do NOT pick a kicker until the last round. What's that you tell me? Your brother-in-law is Rob Bironas and you promised him and your sister that you'd pick him? Fine. Lie about it. He's a kicker, he couldn't beat you up anyway. You are far better off taking a flier on Shaun Hill with your second to last pick than you are reaching early for Mason Crosby. I laugh every time someone takes a kicker in the 10th round. I either think the guy didn't pre-rank enough guys and missed the online draft or think that the guy is a complete idiot.
RULE #4
Don't reach for Trendy Pick Guy. Last year it was Darren McFadden, who I love as a Raiders fan. This year it might be Brett Favre. I can promise that if you reach for Trendy Pick Guy and there's one or two of them every year that you're losing your league. So sorry Calvin Johnson and Pierre Thomas. You may have great seasons but you're not worth second round picks.
RULE #5
Don't get caught up in runs. Runs on defenses. Runs on tight ends. Whatever. The only thing to keep an eye on with runs is whether you have a solid #1 receiver. If you took 2 RB's first then you must keep an eye on the remaining one or two guys left in the WR Top-10. Otherwise, ignore runs and count yourself lucky that you weren't sucked in. Tight end is a deep position. Defenses don't win fantasy championships. Grab another WR or RB that can actually get you some points rather than reaching for the top defense or tight end.
RULE #6
Don't forget about bye weeks. You don't want to start the season 0-1 because you waited until after the draft to notice that your top RB, WR, and QB are all out in Week 4. You can't afford to completely punt a week. Every week is a must in fantasy football. I know this because last year my team finished in 2nd rather than 1st because Antonio Bryant made up a 30-point deficit by himself on MNF. Sorry, just had to throw that in there. Yeah, Michael, I'm coming for you this season. You're not defending our league's crown.
RULE #7
Click on a guy's rotoworld page before you draft him. You don't want to draft a guy only to find out he's suffering from an ankle injury and out until Week 3.
RULE #8
Think of guys in tiers. For instance. With RB, it's Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones Drew, then Forte, Turner, Williams, then the third tier, etc.
RULE #9
Don't reach for rookies. Yes, there may be some great performances out of rookies, but odds are they won't be worth early round selections. Taking fliers on rookies late is fine, taking fliers on rookies in the first two rounds, not so much.
RULE #10
Don't be a homer. I love picking a football fight with my friend D.J. And it's always about the same guy, Eli Manning. I usually can suck him into an argument once a month or so. Why do I love it? Because he gets so riled up. D.J. is a ginormous Giants fan (he'll be wearing Giants stickers under his eyes like the players do at the sports bar this season). D.J. has a tough time winning an argument about Eli because he's an Eli fan. I don't care about him one way or the other so my judgment isn't clouded. D.J. thinks he's a top-10 QB, sometimes he'll tell me top-12 just to avoid an argument. However, experts have him around 16-18. I'm not saying D.J. plays fantasy football this way, but you could see the problems that would arise if he did. And people do. It's only natural. I'm always at a disadvantage in fantasy baseball because I love the Dodgers. I overspent by $5 for Shawn Green every year he was a Dodger. Fortunately in football I'm resigned to my fate as a Raiders fan so I don't draft Raiders unless it's the right move. Long story short, don't fall in love with a guy because he's your favorite player or on your favorite team.
SLEEPERS
Rashard Mendenhall (RB - Steelers): I liked him last year until he got injured in the first month of the season. He'll get slightly under half the carries early on, but I expect his carries and numbers to go way up as the season progresses.
Donnie Avery (WR - Rams): I picked him up on the waiver wire last year so I watched him some. He's fast and has very big play potential. A healthy Bulger and Stephen Jackson could mean some big play opportunities for Avery. He'll convert them.
Knowshon Moreno (RB - Broncos): That injury will scare people but he'll be ready for Week 1. He has all the talent in the world and should be on your list of guys to target.
BUSTS
Brett Favre (QB - Vikings): The locker room is not anywhere near his. His receivers are good, not great. Oh, and he's old and throws the ball to the other team far too often. Someone will take him a lot earlier than he should go. Don't be that guy.
Calvin Johnson (WR - Lions): On any other team I would love him. But, he'll get quadruple-teamed and there's a 50/50 chance that the ball will be where it's supposed to be on any given play. Wait until he's in a position to succeed. He's not worth a second round pick this year.
Jay Cutler (QB - Bears): Expectations are too high. He'll be playing in a competitive conference against a couple of good defenses and in some bad weather. He may be fine, but not as good statistically as you would hope for from your starting QB in a fantasy league.
TOP-50 FANTASY PLAYERS FOR 2009
50A. Matt Ryan (QB - Falcons)
I just got sick of waiting for this guy to falter last year. They added Gonzalez to his list of options and I can't imagine that he doesn't improve after his rookie season.
50B. Chad Ochocinco (WR - Bengals)
I know I said I'd only have a top-50 but I could leave my man Chad out of this. I don't like betting against him and he tells us he's going to have a good season. Assuming Carson Palmer is not seriously hurt, I see 1,100 yds. and 8 TD's out of Chad.
49. Beanie Wells (RB - Cardinals)
He won't be the main guy all the time but he'll still get his fair share of carries. I like him to get 1,000 yds. and 9 TD's . . . even with a name like Beanie.
48. Roy Williams (WR - Cowboys)
Things are a lot calmer in Dallas, except for that whole video board things. Williams will be option number two behind Witten but that's not a horrible place to be in a passing offense like Dallas'.
47. Derrick Ward (RB - Buccaneers)
You will be very happy if you end up with Ward on your team. They'll be running the ball often in Tampa Bay because they can't throw it. Ward has proven that he can carry the load. He's good for 1,200 yards in my book. I know that sounds high with the role he'll have initially but I like this guy.
46. Tony Gonzalez (TE - Falcons)
Gonzalez produced with Tyler Thigpen. He'll do better as Matt Ryan's guy, especially with Michael Turner opening things up in the backfield and Roddy White on the outside.
45. Braylon Edwards (WR - Browns)
If he can buy the same stuff that Clifford Franklin put on his hands in The Replacements, Edwards can be a fantasy stud. I know it's a big "if" when you're talking about the dropsies, but Edwards is #1 WR material. Just make sure to keep an eye on the ankle he injured in a pick-up basketball game.
44. Terrell Owens (WR - Bills)
He's hurt. He brought the circus. His coach doesn't like confrontation. Who knows what to make of the T.O. in Buffalo experiment? This seems about right for his ranking. I won't be the guy reaching for him.
43. Antonio Gates (TE - Chargers)
The guy is a new breed as a tight end. He's got wide receiver talent in a linebacker's body. Philip Rivers will use Gates as his go to guy once more and he's wise to.
42. Jason Witten (TE - Cowboys)
Tony Romo can use him as his favorite target and nobody's going to complain about it anymore. Witten has proven himself and he should produce with Romo keying on him.
41. Eli Manning (QB - Giants)
Just kidding. That's for D.J.
41. Reggie Bush (RB - Saints)
Maybe I'm just a sucker who remembers back to his days at USC, but I just can't give up on this guy yet. He's a rushing and receiving threat and like I said, I'm just not giving up hope yet.
40. Aaron Rodgers (QB - Packers)
If there's a clear cut winner in the Favre saga, it's Rodgers. The guy waited his turn in Green Bay and now the love affair with #4 is over in Green Bay. Rodgers could win two games all year and as long as those two are against the Vikings, he's fine. Rodgers has plenty of weapons and I see 3,700 yds. and 30 TD's out of him.
39. Brandon Marshall (WR - Broncos)
He's not going to be playing happy and he's a hit or miss effort guy to begin with. Add to the mix that it's Kyle Orton getting him the ball instead of Cutler and I see a drop off for Marshall this season. Not severe, but enough to avoid in the very early going.
38. Wes Welker (WR - Patriots)
Do you remember the season that Welker had two years ago when Brady was healthy? No? Well, do you know who does? Tom Brady. Brady loved going to Welker and Welker figures to have a big season once more because of it.
37. Jonathan Stewart (RB - Panthers)
This guy will still be a beast even with Williams in the backfield. There are plenty of carries to go around in Carolina because everybody knows what happens when you let Delhomme throw the ball.
NOTE: Stewart is currently injured. Monitor the situation before picking him.
36. Felix Jones (RB - Cowboys)
8.9 yds/carry last season. That's insane. Figure on something closer to 5.0 this season. Why this high for his ranking? Because Barber won't get as many carries as he did last year after the Cowboys saw how tired and useless he was the last month of the season. Expect a big season from Felix Jones.
35. Philip Rivers (QB - Chargers)
I do not like Philip Rivers. He is a jerk and a loud mouth in the not fun way. He's the anti-Chad Ochocinco when it comes to loud mouths. But he's a great QB with a ton of weapons in a weak division. 4,000 yds., 30+ TD's easy.
34. Pierre Thomas (RB - Saints)
At first I thought this would be pretty high to have Thomas but everybody and his mother has this guy in the top 25. I think he'll have a breakout year but I'm not willing to bet a second round pick on it, especially since he hasn't played yet this season.
33. Kurt Warner (QB - Cardinals)
The ageless wonder is back for more. The youth movement in the backfield without the drama could make this an even more potent offense than it was last year. Warner will be a yards and TD's machine.
32. Calvin Johnson (WR - Lions)
See above comments on Johnson. Freak of nature at WR. Nobody to play with on offense in the passing game.
31. Tony Romo (WR - Cowboys)
He may have lost a great option at WR in T.O. but he also lost a 500-lb. weight on his back in not having to deal with T.O.'s demands any longer. Not to mention that he doesn't have to talk to Jessica Simpson anymore. Romo will be fine.
30. Anquan Boldin (WR - Cardinals)
The Cardinals seem willing to deal with Boldin on contract talks once the season gets going and they say Boldin's hamstring isn't serious. I think Boldin will turn out fine and will serve you well as a Fantasy #2 receiver.
29. Dwayne Bowe (WR - Chiefs)
Bowe is a breakout type receiver. The Chiefs lost Gonzalez so Bowe will get more attention from defenses but I think Cassel will still be able to find Bowe on a regular basis. He's far better than you think even if you've paid attention to him.
28. Marques Colston (WR - Saints)
I feel like Drew Brees' #1 receiver should be higher but he' just not a 100 receptions in a year guy. I have a feeling you won't be upset though if he's on your team.
27. Tom Brady (QB - Patriots)
Obviously he has first round potential but Brady's been out for a year and with QB's I think it's always better to be conservative with your estimates. I'd take Brady in the middle of the third round and not a second sooner.
26. Kevin Smith (RB - Lions)
I had him last year and I was pretty happy about it. But I didn't spend an early third round pick on him. He'll see a lot of guys up front because of the QB situation but Calvin Johnson also prevents teams from completely loading up. 1,200 yds. and 8 or 9 TD's sounds right.
25. Marion Barber (RB - Cowboys)
As stated above, Barber is sure to see less carries. But that drop in carries won't come from inside the five yard line. The Cowboys offense will score some points and Barber will be a major contributor.
24. Reggie Wayne (WR - Colts)
He's going to produce. He's Peyton Manning's guy and he'll get his. Plain and simple.
23. Peyton Manning (QB - Colts)
See comment above. Subtract middle sentence.
22. Ryan Grant (RB - Packers)
I think that Grant is set for another big year. He was horrible for TD's last year but I see that as a blip on the screen rather than a trend. He's going to get a lot of carries. 4 rushing TD's isn't happening again.
21. Ronnie Brown (RB - Dolphins)
The Auburn RB turned out okay. He had 10 rushing TD's last season but less than 1,000 yards. I think that he's due for a bit of a drop in TD's but I also think that he'll climb over the 1,000 yd. mark.
20. Greg Jennings (WR - Packers)
This guy makes magic happen once he gets the ball in his hands. And Aaron Rodgers likes getting the ball in his hands. He can score a TD with a simple slant from midfield. He's fast. He'll get 1,200 yards and 10 or 11 TD's.
19. Drew Brees (QB - Saints)
Fortunately for his fantasy owners, his real team finds itself in a lot of shootouts over the course of a season. The Saints play over half of their games indoors between their home and Atlanta's and Brees reaps the benefits. 4,500 yards and 33 TD's sounds right.
18. Clinton Portis (RB - Redskins)
He's not going to have the 80-yard TD's that he once could but he's still a workhorse who can carry a full load. I think he goes higher than this in most drafts. I'm not taking him higher than this though.
17. Roddy White (WR - Falcons)
The same way I expect big things out of Ryan, I expect even bigger out of White. Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White will make each other even better than they've been in recent seasons. I'm pretty sure with Roddy White ranked here that he'll end up on my team. I'm even more sure that that's a good thing. 1,300 yards. 11 TD's.
16. Steve Slaton (RB - Texans)
I loved him at West Virginia. I had no idea that he'd come to the party that quickly. He's small but he's faster than fast. He's uber fast. He'll average close to 5 yards/carry again and he'll see the ball plenty.
15. Steve Smith (WR - Panthers)
Speaking of fast. I'll tell you this, if he ends up on my team I'm sending him piles and piles of hate mail. Have you seen how great this guy plays when he thinks he's got haters out there or when some idiot cornerback decides to talk trash? Steve Smith will get his. Again.
14. Randy Moss (WR - Patriots)
Cue up the highlight reel. Brady's back and Randy Moss knows how to use him. "Touchdown Randy Moss." Sorry, I'm just preparing you for future play by play calls.
13. Chris Johnson (RB - Titans)
I'm still bitter that his injury last year in the playoffs prevented me from looking like a genius for calling the Titans a Super Bowl team about a month before anybody else started agreeing. If he's healthy, he's a beast.
12. Andre Johnson (WR - Texans)
I liked having him on my fantasy team last year. You'd like it too. Matt Schaub was a nice upgrade from David Carr and Andre Johnson has taken full advantage. He's worth a late first/early second round pick.
11. Frank Gore (RB - 49ers)
He only played 14 games last year and still got over the 1,000 yard mark. He's got Shaun Hill for a full season now and I expect him to have a nice impact. Take Gore if he's there at 10 or 11.
10. Brandon Jacobs (RB - Giants)
Has anybody had the nickname "Freight Train" yet? If not then Jacobs should be all over it. I would not want to tackle the guy. Apparently not a lot of guys in the NFL wanted to last year either.
9. Steven Jackson (RB - Rams)
He has 1st pick in the draft potential. He just can't seem to stay healthy. If he only misses a game or two then he's fine here. If you think he's good to go all season, you might want to get him as high as #5. If you think he's missing another 4-6 games this season, don't take him.
8. LaDainian Tomlinson (RB - Chargers)
He may not be the sure fire first pick in the draft anymore but he's still LaDainian Tomlinson. Pick accordingly.
7. Larry Fitzgerald (WR - Cardinals)
He just looks happy out there. He's like a Hines Ward on Jack's Beanstalk beans. Defenses will be paying a lot of attention to Fitzgerald. There's a reason why. Unfortunately there's not much they can do about it.
6. Brian Westbrook (RB - Eagles)
Every year he has his doubters. Every year he has his injury risks. Every year he has fantasy owners upset that they passed up on him. He's going to produce. You've got to stop doubting him at some point, don't you?
5. DeAngelo Williams (RB - Panthers)
He's the first banana in a well-oiled machine that is the Panthers' rushing offense. Last season was not a fluke. If you're looking for this year's DeAngelo Williams, it's DeAngelo Williams.
4. Matt Forte (RB - Bears)
Jay Cutler will get more attention than Kyle Orton did and that can't hurt Matt Forte. I don't like risking my fantasy season on a guy who came out of nowhere like Forte, but Forte was my sleeper pick last year for a reason. I'm fine with him again.
3. Michael Turner (RB - Falcons)
I'll bet the Chargers are happy that they didn't keep him. Who needs a guy that gets you 1,700 yards and 17 TD's? I know. You do. You need him. Make sure to get him if you have a top-3 pick.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB - Jaguars)
He was a risky pick because he never got that many TD's and he wasn't starting in the backfield. That won't be the case this year. You're gambling if you get him this high, but he's a sure thing just a couple of spots further down. I'm willing to take him here. Every play's a TD opportunity when he touches the ball.
1. Adrian Peterson (RB - Vikings)
You don't get the nickname "Purple Jesus" without cause. No further explanation necessary.
So there you have it. Best of luck with your draft.
It's funny, I've enjoyed by far my greatest fantasy successes in football and it is the fantasy sport that I put the least amount of effort into. I guess it's no coincidence that fantasy football is the game that requires the most luck. For instance, a couple of years ago I targeted Tom Brady in the third round and he went nuts on the league for an entire season. Last year someone else got him in the first round and got all of one game out of him to completely take my friend's team out of contention. All of that being said, I have some rules that I abide by with fantasy football, so I'll give them to you. I'll also throw in some of my top guys, sleepers, and avoid at all cost guys. Here goes.
(This is all assuming you have a traditional league with 4 points per passing TD and 6 per rec/rushing TD)
RULE #1
Do NOT pick a QB in the first round. There is a far greater chance of that coming back to bite you than the pick serving to reward you. The only way this pick is worth it is if you get a 45 TD season out of your QB. QB is the position that you can always fill with lower round/waiver guys. Every year there's a Tyler Thigpen that nobody's heard of. I'm not saying that Drew Brees/Peyton Manning/Tom Brady are not amazing and locks for good or great seasons. I'm saying that there are a lot of QB's who can put up points that can win you a league and you won't be using first, second, or even third round picks on them. If you pick a first round QB and he goes down, you lose the QB position and the RB position because you didn't get that first round RB.
RULE #2
Get either 2 RB's or 1 RB and 1 WR in the first two rounds. This season I would probably go with the 1 and 1 version though. There are only a few sure thing receivers and there are a lot of running backs sharing the load. But, that being said, you still need one of the marquis running backs. Because of the drop in talent between the first several guys and the rest, you need a guy that you can count on for 100 yard/1 TD potential every week. If you can wind up with Stephen Jackson and Andre Johnson as your first two picks, you're not winning the league yet, but you've put yourself in a position to do so. In other words, you haven't shot yourself in the foot the way the guy who took Drew Brees and Randy Moss with his first two picks did.
RULE #3
Do NOT pick a kicker until the last round. What's that you tell me? Your brother-in-law is Rob Bironas and you promised him and your sister that you'd pick him? Fine. Lie about it. He's a kicker, he couldn't beat you up anyway. You are far better off taking a flier on Shaun Hill with your second to last pick than you are reaching early for Mason Crosby. I laugh every time someone takes a kicker in the 10th round. I either think the guy didn't pre-rank enough guys and missed the online draft or think that the guy is a complete idiot.
RULE #4
Don't reach for Trendy Pick Guy. Last year it was Darren McFadden, who I love as a Raiders fan. This year it might be Brett Favre. I can promise that if you reach for Trendy Pick Guy and there's one or two of them every year that you're losing your league. So sorry Calvin Johnson and Pierre Thomas. You may have great seasons but you're not worth second round picks.
RULE #5
Don't get caught up in runs. Runs on defenses. Runs on tight ends. Whatever. The only thing to keep an eye on with runs is whether you have a solid #1 receiver. If you took 2 RB's first then you must keep an eye on the remaining one or two guys left in the WR Top-10. Otherwise, ignore runs and count yourself lucky that you weren't sucked in. Tight end is a deep position. Defenses don't win fantasy championships. Grab another WR or RB that can actually get you some points rather than reaching for the top defense or tight end.
RULE #6
Don't forget about bye weeks. You don't want to start the season 0-1 because you waited until after the draft to notice that your top RB, WR, and QB are all out in Week 4. You can't afford to completely punt a week. Every week is a must in fantasy football. I know this because last year my team finished in 2nd rather than 1st because Antonio Bryant made up a 30-point deficit by himself on MNF. Sorry, just had to throw that in there. Yeah, Michael, I'm coming for you this season. You're not defending our league's crown.
RULE #7
Click on a guy's rotoworld page before you draft him. You don't want to draft a guy only to find out he's suffering from an ankle injury and out until Week 3.
RULE #8
Think of guys in tiers. For instance. With RB, it's Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones Drew, then Forte, Turner, Williams, then the third tier, etc.
RULE #9
Don't reach for rookies. Yes, there may be some great performances out of rookies, but odds are they won't be worth early round selections. Taking fliers on rookies late is fine, taking fliers on rookies in the first two rounds, not so much.
RULE #10
Don't be a homer. I love picking a football fight with my friend D.J. And it's always about the same guy, Eli Manning. I usually can suck him into an argument once a month or so. Why do I love it? Because he gets so riled up. D.J. is a ginormous Giants fan (he'll be wearing Giants stickers under his eyes like the players do at the sports bar this season). D.J. has a tough time winning an argument about Eli because he's an Eli fan. I don't care about him one way or the other so my judgment isn't clouded. D.J. thinks he's a top-10 QB, sometimes he'll tell me top-12 just to avoid an argument. However, experts have him around 16-18. I'm not saying D.J. plays fantasy football this way, but you could see the problems that would arise if he did. And people do. It's only natural. I'm always at a disadvantage in fantasy baseball because I love the Dodgers. I overspent by $5 for Shawn Green every year he was a Dodger. Fortunately in football I'm resigned to my fate as a Raiders fan so I don't draft Raiders unless it's the right move. Long story short, don't fall in love with a guy because he's your favorite player or on your favorite team.
SLEEPERS
Rashard Mendenhall (RB - Steelers): I liked him last year until he got injured in the first month of the season. He'll get slightly under half the carries early on, but I expect his carries and numbers to go way up as the season progresses.
Donnie Avery (WR - Rams): I picked him up on the waiver wire last year so I watched him some. He's fast and has very big play potential. A healthy Bulger and Stephen Jackson could mean some big play opportunities for Avery. He'll convert them.
Knowshon Moreno (RB - Broncos): That injury will scare people but he'll be ready for Week 1. He has all the talent in the world and should be on your list of guys to target.
BUSTS
Brett Favre (QB - Vikings): The locker room is not anywhere near his. His receivers are good, not great. Oh, and he's old and throws the ball to the other team far too often. Someone will take him a lot earlier than he should go. Don't be that guy.
Calvin Johnson (WR - Lions): On any other team I would love him. But, he'll get quadruple-teamed and there's a 50/50 chance that the ball will be where it's supposed to be on any given play. Wait until he's in a position to succeed. He's not worth a second round pick this year.
Jay Cutler (QB - Bears): Expectations are too high. He'll be playing in a competitive conference against a couple of good defenses and in some bad weather. He may be fine, but not as good statistically as you would hope for from your starting QB in a fantasy league.
TOP-50 FANTASY PLAYERS FOR 2009
50A. Matt Ryan (QB - Falcons)
I just got sick of waiting for this guy to falter last year. They added Gonzalez to his list of options and I can't imagine that he doesn't improve after his rookie season.
50B. Chad Ochocinco (WR - Bengals)
I know I said I'd only have a top-50 but I could leave my man Chad out of this. I don't like betting against him and he tells us he's going to have a good season. Assuming Carson Palmer is not seriously hurt, I see 1,100 yds. and 8 TD's out of Chad.
49. Beanie Wells (RB - Cardinals)
He won't be the main guy all the time but he'll still get his fair share of carries. I like him to get 1,000 yds. and 9 TD's . . . even with a name like Beanie.
48. Roy Williams (WR - Cowboys)
Things are a lot calmer in Dallas, except for that whole video board things. Williams will be option number two behind Witten but that's not a horrible place to be in a passing offense like Dallas'.
47. Derrick Ward (RB - Buccaneers)
You will be very happy if you end up with Ward on your team. They'll be running the ball often in Tampa Bay because they can't throw it. Ward has proven that he can carry the load. He's good for 1,200 yards in my book. I know that sounds high with the role he'll have initially but I like this guy.
46. Tony Gonzalez (TE - Falcons)
Gonzalez produced with Tyler Thigpen. He'll do better as Matt Ryan's guy, especially with Michael Turner opening things up in the backfield and Roddy White on the outside.
45. Braylon Edwards (WR - Browns)
If he can buy the same stuff that Clifford Franklin put on his hands in The Replacements, Edwards can be a fantasy stud. I know it's a big "if" when you're talking about the dropsies, but Edwards is #1 WR material. Just make sure to keep an eye on the ankle he injured in a pick-up basketball game.
44. Terrell Owens (WR - Bills)
He's hurt. He brought the circus. His coach doesn't like confrontation. Who knows what to make of the T.O. in Buffalo experiment? This seems about right for his ranking. I won't be the guy reaching for him.
43. Antonio Gates (TE - Chargers)
The guy is a new breed as a tight end. He's got wide receiver talent in a linebacker's body. Philip Rivers will use Gates as his go to guy once more and he's wise to.
42. Jason Witten (TE - Cowboys)
Tony Romo can use him as his favorite target and nobody's going to complain about it anymore. Witten has proven himself and he should produce with Romo keying on him.
41. Eli Manning (QB - Giants)
Just kidding. That's for D.J.
41. Reggie Bush (RB - Saints)
Maybe I'm just a sucker who remembers back to his days at USC, but I just can't give up on this guy yet. He's a rushing and receiving threat and like I said, I'm just not giving up hope yet.
40. Aaron Rodgers (QB - Packers)
If there's a clear cut winner in the Favre saga, it's Rodgers. The guy waited his turn in Green Bay and now the love affair with #4 is over in Green Bay. Rodgers could win two games all year and as long as those two are against the Vikings, he's fine. Rodgers has plenty of weapons and I see 3,700 yds. and 30 TD's out of him.
39. Brandon Marshall (WR - Broncos)
He's not going to be playing happy and he's a hit or miss effort guy to begin with. Add to the mix that it's Kyle Orton getting him the ball instead of Cutler and I see a drop off for Marshall this season. Not severe, but enough to avoid in the very early going.
38. Wes Welker (WR - Patriots)
Do you remember the season that Welker had two years ago when Brady was healthy? No? Well, do you know who does? Tom Brady. Brady loved going to Welker and Welker figures to have a big season once more because of it.
37. Jonathan Stewart (RB - Panthers)
This guy will still be a beast even with Williams in the backfield. There are plenty of carries to go around in Carolina because everybody knows what happens when you let Delhomme throw the ball.
NOTE: Stewart is currently injured. Monitor the situation before picking him.
36. Felix Jones (RB - Cowboys)
8.9 yds/carry last season. That's insane. Figure on something closer to 5.0 this season. Why this high for his ranking? Because Barber won't get as many carries as he did last year after the Cowboys saw how tired and useless he was the last month of the season. Expect a big season from Felix Jones.
35. Philip Rivers (QB - Chargers)
I do not like Philip Rivers. He is a jerk and a loud mouth in the not fun way. He's the anti-Chad Ochocinco when it comes to loud mouths. But he's a great QB with a ton of weapons in a weak division. 4,000 yds., 30+ TD's easy.
34. Pierre Thomas (RB - Saints)
At first I thought this would be pretty high to have Thomas but everybody and his mother has this guy in the top 25. I think he'll have a breakout year but I'm not willing to bet a second round pick on it, especially since he hasn't played yet this season.
33. Kurt Warner (QB - Cardinals)
The ageless wonder is back for more. The youth movement in the backfield without the drama could make this an even more potent offense than it was last year. Warner will be a yards and TD's machine.
32. Calvin Johnson (WR - Lions)
See above comments on Johnson. Freak of nature at WR. Nobody to play with on offense in the passing game.
31. Tony Romo (WR - Cowboys)
He may have lost a great option at WR in T.O. but he also lost a 500-lb. weight on his back in not having to deal with T.O.'s demands any longer. Not to mention that he doesn't have to talk to Jessica Simpson anymore. Romo will be fine.
30. Anquan Boldin (WR - Cardinals)
The Cardinals seem willing to deal with Boldin on contract talks once the season gets going and they say Boldin's hamstring isn't serious. I think Boldin will turn out fine and will serve you well as a Fantasy #2 receiver.
29. Dwayne Bowe (WR - Chiefs)
Bowe is a breakout type receiver. The Chiefs lost Gonzalez so Bowe will get more attention from defenses but I think Cassel will still be able to find Bowe on a regular basis. He's far better than you think even if you've paid attention to him.
28. Marques Colston (WR - Saints)
I feel like Drew Brees' #1 receiver should be higher but he' just not a 100 receptions in a year guy. I have a feeling you won't be upset though if he's on your team.
27. Tom Brady (QB - Patriots)
Obviously he has first round potential but Brady's been out for a year and with QB's I think it's always better to be conservative with your estimates. I'd take Brady in the middle of the third round and not a second sooner.
26. Kevin Smith (RB - Lions)
I had him last year and I was pretty happy about it. But I didn't spend an early third round pick on him. He'll see a lot of guys up front because of the QB situation but Calvin Johnson also prevents teams from completely loading up. 1,200 yds. and 8 or 9 TD's sounds right.
25. Marion Barber (RB - Cowboys)
As stated above, Barber is sure to see less carries. But that drop in carries won't come from inside the five yard line. The Cowboys offense will score some points and Barber will be a major contributor.
24. Reggie Wayne (WR - Colts)
He's going to produce. He's Peyton Manning's guy and he'll get his. Plain and simple.
23. Peyton Manning (QB - Colts)
See comment above. Subtract middle sentence.
22. Ryan Grant (RB - Packers)
I think that Grant is set for another big year. He was horrible for TD's last year but I see that as a blip on the screen rather than a trend. He's going to get a lot of carries. 4 rushing TD's isn't happening again.
21. Ronnie Brown (RB - Dolphins)
The Auburn RB turned out okay. He had 10 rushing TD's last season but less than 1,000 yards. I think that he's due for a bit of a drop in TD's but I also think that he'll climb over the 1,000 yd. mark.
20. Greg Jennings (WR - Packers)
This guy makes magic happen once he gets the ball in his hands. And Aaron Rodgers likes getting the ball in his hands. He can score a TD with a simple slant from midfield. He's fast. He'll get 1,200 yards and 10 or 11 TD's.
19. Drew Brees (QB - Saints)
Fortunately for his fantasy owners, his real team finds itself in a lot of shootouts over the course of a season. The Saints play over half of their games indoors between their home and Atlanta's and Brees reaps the benefits. 4,500 yards and 33 TD's sounds right.
18. Clinton Portis (RB - Redskins)
He's not going to have the 80-yard TD's that he once could but he's still a workhorse who can carry a full load. I think he goes higher than this in most drafts. I'm not taking him higher than this though.
17. Roddy White (WR - Falcons)
The same way I expect big things out of Ryan, I expect even bigger out of White. Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White will make each other even better than they've been in recent seasons. I'm pretty sure with Roddy White ranked here that he'll end up on my team. I'm even more sure that that's a good thing. 1,300 yards. 11 TD's.
16. Steve Slaton (RB - Texans)
I loved him at West Virginia. I had no idea that he'd come to the party that quickly. He's small but he's faster than fast. He's uber fast. He'll average close to 5 yards/carry again and he'll see the ball plenty.
15. Steve Smith (WR - Panthers)
Speaking of fast. I'll tell you this, if he ends up on my team I'm sending him piles and piles of hate mail. Have you seen how great this guy plays when he thinks he's got haters out there or when some idiot cornerback decides to talk trash? Steve Smith will get his. Again.
14. Randy Moss (WR - Patriots)
Cue up the highlight reel. Brady's back and Randy Moss knows how to use him. "Touchdown Randy Moss." Sorry, I'm just preparing you for future play by play calls.
13. Chris Johnson (RB - Titans)
I'm still bitter that his injury last year in the playoffs prevented me from looking like a genius for calling the Titans a Super Bowl team about a month before anybody else started agreeing. If he's healthy, he's a beast.
12. Andre Johnson (WR - Texans)
I liked having him on my fantasy team last year. You'd like it too. Matt Schaub was a nice upgrade from David Carr and Andre Johnson has taken full advantage. He's worth a late first/early second round pick.
11. Frank Gore (RB - 49ers)
He only played 14 games last year and still got over the 1,000 yard mark. He's got Shaun Hill for a full season now and I expect him to have a nice impact. Take Gore if he's there at 10 or 11.
10. Brandon Jacobs (RB - Giants)
Has anybody had the nickname "Freight Train" yet? If not then Jacobs should be all over it. I would not want to tackle the guy. Apparently not a lot of guys in the NFL wanted to last year either.
9. Steven Jackson (RB - Rams)
He has 1st pick in the draft potential. He just can't seem to stay healthy. If he only misses a game or two then he's fine here. If you think he's good to go all season, you might want to get him as high as #5. If you think he's missing another 4-6 games this season, don't take him.
8. LaDainian Tomlinson (RB - Chargers)
He may not be the sure fire first pick in the draft anymore but he's still LaDainian Tomlinson. Pick accordingly.
7. Larry Fitzgerald (WR - Cardinals)
He just looks happy out there. He's like a Hines Ward on Jack's Beanstalk beans. Defenses will be paying a lot of attention to Fitzgerald. There's a reason why. Unfortunately there's not much they can do about it.
6. Brian Westbrook (RB - Eagles)
Every year he has his doubters. Every year he has his injury risks. Every year he has fantasy owners upset that they passed up on him. He's going to produce. You've got to stop doubting him at some point, don't you?
5. DeAngelo Williams (RB - Panthers)
He's the first banana in a well-oiled machine that is the Panthers' rushing offense. Last season was not a fluke. If you're looking for this year's DeAngelo Williams, it's DeAngelo Williams.
4. Matt Forte (RB - Bears)
Jay Cutler will get more attention than Kyle Orton did and that can't hurt Matt Forte. I don't like risking my fantasy season on a guy who came out of nowhere like Forte, but Forte was my sleeper pick last year for a reason. I'm fine with him again.
3. Michael Turner (RB - Falcons)
I'll bet the Chargers are happy that they didn't keep him. Who needs a guy that gets you 1,700 yards and 17 TD's? I know. You do. You need him. Make sure to get him if you have a top-3 pick.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB - Jaguars)
He was a risky pick because he never got that many TD's and he wasn't starting in the backfield. That won't be the case this year. You're gambling if you get him this high, but he's a sure thing just a couple of spots further down. I'm willing to take him here. Every play's a TD opportunity when he touches the ball.
1. Adrian Peterson (RB - Vikings)
You don't get the nickname "Purple Jesus" without cause. No further explanation necessary.
So there you have it. Best of luck with your draft.
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