Mailbag - April Edition
Well, March Madness is a distant memory. The Masters has come and gone. Thank you to the sports gods for giving us baseball and the NBA Playoffs. Seriously, how am I supposed to get any work done in the months of March and April? I don't have the answer to that, but as to your other questions, here they are.
Q: Is it going to be a Lakers/Cavs NBA Finals and who wins it? (David from Los Angeles, CA)
A: It is going to be a Lakers/Cavs NBA Finals now that KG is out for the playoffs or at best pulls a Willis Reed for a few minutes. As we saw in Game 1 of the Chicago series, Boston is a completely different team without KG. They can't defend the paint and they are not intimidating, the two things that won them the Championship last year. The only other competitor in the East as far as teams that could maybe beat the Cavs is the Heat, solely because of D-Wade. But I'm not overly confident after watching J-Smoove dunk all over them. So the Cavs have it wrapped up and, aside from a collasal upset, the Lake Show won't go past 6 games in any Western Conference series. The Rockets are the only team I could see disrupting the stampede to the Finals as they have Battier and Artest, two guys who could legitimately bother Kobe. But the Lakers are so deep this year that I just don't see how they contend with Pau, Bynum, and Odom after expending so much energy and devoting so much game planning to containing Kobe. None of the other teams scare me in the West.
I am very excited for a Lakers/Cavs NBA Finals. LeBron is a beast, but just as the Spurs picked him apart a couple of years ago, the Lakers will do the same. Before getting to the obvious matchup in the series, the Lakers have the clear advantage as to supporting casts. After Kobe and Bron Bron, I think the Lakers have the 3 best players. Maybe you take Mo Williams over Odom, but you're definitely not taking him over Pau or Bynum. They will have a lot of trouble defending and scoring inside against the Lakers. As to Kobe vs. LeBron, please. Just watch the times they square off. Kobe can guard LeBron and will do so in crunch time. Odom and Ariza can do fine enough the rest of the time. But how do the Cavs contain Kobe without getting beat up inside? And I know I've pointed this out before, but who do you trust between Kobe and LeBron in a close game? I'll point you to the Gold Medal game in Beijing in case you're flummoxed by the question.
The real X-Factor in the series that nobody is talking about, or will talk about for that matter, is the Zen Master. Even if you thought the teams were evenly matched, how many points do you assign in the spread to Phil Jackson over Mike "Coach of the Year" Brown? Isn't LeBron kind of coaching the Cavs? Who are they listening to in key situations? Doesn't Phil have kind of a good track record in the playoffs? The Cavs run about three plays and all three are predictable. I guarantee you that the Lakers are breaking down film for that series and have been for the past few weeks at least. The high screen and stick shooters in the corner play that the Cavs run will be guarded. Phil will do something like switching an Ariza/Odom screen to combat the run LeBron off of a double screen play. The everybody get out of LeBron's way play will land him at the free throw line at best. Good luck with that down the stretch. And will LeBron take the bait when the Lakers pick their spots and sag off of him? You know he wants to prove he can hit jumpers. I just see Phil salivating and the rest of the Lake Show hungrier than ever to win.
Lakers in 6.
Q: Should I be getting excited about the Dodgers' start to the season or are they going to let us down like all the other times they've started out hot? (Frank from Los Angeles, CA)
A: You should be getting excited, but keep it at tempered excitement. Don't forget that the Dodgers play in arguably the weakest division in baseball (AL West is pretty sorry too). The good news is that the Dodgers are clearly the best team in that weak division and have a very good chance at eclipsing 90 wins and securing a playoff spot for the second straight year. The bad news is that I'm not sure the Dodgers are the best team in the NL. Despite the rough start, I still think that the Mets are going to win the National League even though they usually figure out a way to blow it in the end.
But going back to the Dodgers, we clearly have the best lineup in the West and I expect at worst a 2 out of 3 series every time we play anyone within the division. You have to be excited by Billingsley and Kershaw at the 1 and 2. I was at the Kershaw 13-strikeout game. He's a beast. Kuroda will be solid once he comes off the DL with his non-injured oblique or whatever he's faking with. I think we need to add a decent veteran pitcher that is not named Randy Wolf before the trade deadline and I also like James McDonald at the 5-spot during the season and in middle relief during the playoffs. I am excited for a great Dodgers regular season and hopeful that anything can happen in the playoffs, so as I said, be excited, but keep it tempered.
Q: Why haven't you been talking about Manny Pacquiao against Ricky Hatton? 24/7 has been good and the fight should be great! I like Pacquiao by KO. (Brian from Santa Monica, CA)
A: It's tough for me to get excited about this fight because I think Ricky Hatton is one of the most over-hyped fighters of our generation. He gets big fights because he brings the entire UK with him anywhere he goes and they spend a boatload of money in Vegas. Hatton can't beat anyone legitimate without getting away with a ton of holding. And don't tell me that Jose Luis Castillo was legitimate that late in his career. That's like Calzaghe beating a 10 years past his prime Roy Jones Jr. Hatton's career is littered with questionable decisions by judges and victories whose significance get blown out of proportion. Manny Pacquiao on the other hand has beaten pretty much anyone of Mexican descent, and while yes, some were past their primes, the Barrera and Morales victories were no joke, especially the first Barrera fight. I'd argue that Juan Manuel Marquez deserved victories in his fights with Pac Man, but either way, they were great fights and Marquez is far superior to anyone Hatton has beaten or looked slightly on par with. I'm not sure that Pacquiao will expose Hatton the way Mayweather did, but while the fight will be action-packed, I think it will be one sided. Whether Pac Man can KO Hatton will depend on how much grappling and hugging goes on that detracts from time that would be spent with Hatton getting popped. On the bright side, this sets things up for a Pacquiao/Mayweather Jr. superfight. Now that's something to get excited about.
Note: 24/7 for the Pacquiao/Hatton fight is being carried by Mayweather Sr. That show should not happen if a Mayweather is not the central focus.
Q: Will Tiger win a major this year or have we seen the end of his dominance? (Phil M. from San Diego, CA)
A: Tiger will win a major this year and no, we have NOT seen the end of his dominance. Sorry Phil M. I'm honestly more surprised by Tiger's comeback win at Bay Hill that early in his comeback than by his struggles with the flat stick at Augusta, one of the toughest places to putt. Anyone who plays golf knows that when you take a long layoff, it's much easier to regain your swing than it is to regain your touch around the greens. Your swing involves more repetition than does a chipping or putting stroke. You should have some kind of routine and consistence in your short game strokes, but because you use the same stick for a shot from 3 feet as you do from 100 feet, it's much more about feel than it is about muscle memory. As a result, while you may have your swing and stroke back, it will take extra time to regain the feel that took you so long to establish. Tiger did spray some drives, but he did that when he was winning 2 majors per year. Tiger will be back when you see his confidence re-emerge on and around the greens. It's like predicting the stock market rebound based on when the volatility ceases. It's as simple as that.
Q: What should the Lions do with their #1 pick? Everyone says Stafford. Is he that good? (Don from Los Angeles, CA)
A: The NFL Draft is so much more anti-climatic than it used to be because teams don't pick anyone without a contract deal already worked out. I personally don't think that the Lions should pick Stafford despite Mel Kiper Jr.'s love affair with him. He might love Stafford more than he loves his own hair. Stafford was great to watch at Georgia and has a cannon for an arm, but I think his absolute ceiling is Jay Cutler Part II, which isn't bad, but I don't think that's your #1 pick. I think they should go with Jason Smith, the OT from Baylor or trade the pick. The Lions were last in the league in giving up sacks to defensive ends. It doesn't matter who you put back in the pocket if he's going to end up on the ground in 2.3 seconds. Build up your line, take a guy like Josh Freeman later in the draft and you'll get far better value. Freeman was a great QB at Kansas State but was overshadowed by the other QB's in the league getting all the press. I know it's not good when your QB is taking five steps out of bounds before he realized he gave up a safety, but giving your QB a chance to throw would be my first priority. It's a safer pick and I don't think anyone is touting Stafford as if he's Peyton Manning. Go with Smith.
Q: Who's your team in the EPL and have you been watching the Champions League? (Kevin from Beverly Hills, CA)
A: I am a Chelsea supporter. I've always been a fan, but when they hired Avram Grant, an Israeli national, to manage the club, I became utterly hooked. I didn't think he deserved to be fired, but Roman is nuts, lovably nuts though. In all seriousness, how many major European clubs would take a chance on an Israeli manager? So I support Chelsea and I can't stand Liverpool or Manchester United. To answer your second question, yes, I have been watching the Champions League games. I thought that Manchester United got lucky to get past Porto and the Chelsea/Liverpool match at Stamford Bridge was one of the most entertaining second legs you could ever hope to see. I think the announcers declared Chelsea the victors about 3 separate times before doubling back to say Liverpool wasn't out of it. The team that may have gotten lost in this for American viewers is Barcelona. If you don't get Gol TV and didn't see Barcelona march through to the semi-finals in the Champions League, you've missed the most potent offense I've seen in a while. Henry is coming into his own finally and he just adds to the core that included Messi, Eto'o, Iniesta, Xavi, Danny Alves coming from the back, etc. Then they've got Puyol and Valdes in the net and you have a very scary team. Don't forget they added Deco in the off-season too. I feel like I'm forgetting someone and look at all the guys I've already named. I said Barca was the favorite at the beginning of the tournament and while I'm pulling for Chelsea, I'm pretty nervous heading into this round. Manchester United clearly got the cakewalk of the draw. Arsenal may be decent but they're clearly the 4th of the Big 4 in the EPL. Man. U should have no problem getting to the finals. No matter who advances, the semi-finals will be great to watch.
Q: Are the Yankees going to turn it around when A-Rod comes back or will things just get worse? (Sean from Los Angeles, CA)
A: People may criticize A-Rod, and rightfully so based on his desperate to seek attention attitude and playoff woes, but A-Rod is consistently one of the top-5 hitters in the game during the regular season. Yankees fan are in such dire straights with this awful start that I think they'll embrace A-Rod when he comes back instead of resorting to boos as they might have a month prior. Will the Yankees turn it around? I say yes. A-Rod has a Manny-like effect on a lineup because he makes everybody else better by giving them better pitches to hit. Guys who were getting off-speed stuff will now get fastballs because pitchers don't want to face A-Rod with runners on, and A-Rod's presence increases the likelihood of runners on base for those hitting below him in the lineup, thus making a walk that much worse. Will the Yankees go all the way? Who knows? We're in the decade of anything can happen in the playoffs so I won't make any firm predictions there. But, even without Wang turning things around, A-Rod's return will put the Yankees back into the playoffs because of the additions of C.C. and Burnett. As to the last part of your question, things can't get any worse.
That'll do it for this edition of the Mailbag. Enjoy the Playoffs and your occasional trips to the ballpark. I know I will.
Q: Is it going to be a Lakers/Cavs NBA Finals and who wins it? (David from Los Angeles, CA)
A: It is going to be a Lakers/Cavs NBA Finals now that KG is out for the playoffs or at best pulls a Willis Reed for a few minutes. As we saw in Game 1 of the Chicago series, Boston is a completely different team without KG. They can't defend the paint and they are not intimidating, the two things that won them the Championship last year. The only other competitor in the East as far as teams that could maybe beat the Cavs is the Heat, solely because of D-Wade. But I'm not overly confident after watching J-Smoove dunk all over them. So the Cavs have it wrapped up and, aside from a collasal upset, the Lake Show won't go past 6 games in any Western Conference series. The Rockets are the only team I could see disrupting the stampede to the Finals as they have Battier and Artest, two guys who could legitimately bother Kobe. But the Lakers are so deep this year that I just don't see how they contend with Pau, Bynum, and Odom after expending so much energy and devoting so much game planning to containing Kobe. None of the other teams scare me in the West.
I am very excited for a Lakers/Cavs NBA Finals. LeBron is a beast, but just as the Spurs picked him apart a couple of years ago, the Lakers will do the same. Before getting to the obvious matchup in the series, the Lakers have the clear advantage as to supporting casts. After Kobe and Bron Bron, I think the Lakers have the 3 best players. Maybe you take Mo Williams over Odom, but you're definitely not taking him over Pau or Bynum. They will have a lot of trouble defending and scoring inside against the Lakers. As to Kobe vs. LeBron, please. Just watch the times they square off. Kobe can guard LeBron and will do so in crunch time. Odom and Ariza can do fine enough the rest of the time. But how do the Cavs contain Kobe without getting beat up inside? And I know I've pointed this out before, but who do you trust between Kobe and LeBron in a close game? I'll point you to the Gold Medal game in Beijing in case you're flummoxed by the question.
The real X-Factor in the series that nobody is talking about, or will talk about for that matter, is the Zen Master. Even if you thought the teams were evenly matched, how many points do you assign in the spread to Phil Jackson over Mike "Coach of the Year" Brown? Isn't LeBron kind of coaching the Cavs? Who are they listening to in key situations? Doesn't Phil have kind of a good track record in the playoffs? The Cavs run about three plays and all three are predictable. I guarantee you that the Lakers are breaking down film for that series and have been for the past few weeks at least. The high screen and stick shooters in the corner play that the Cavs run will be guarded. Phil will do something like switching an Ariza/Odom screen to combat the run LeBron off of a double screen play. The everybody get out of LeBron's way play will land him at the free throw line at best. Good luck with that down the stretch. And will LeBron take the bait when the Lakers pick their spots and sag off of him? You know he wants to prove he can hit jumpers. I just see Phil salivating and the rest of the Lake Show hungrier than ever to win.
Lakers in 6.
Q: Should I be getting excited about the Dodgers' start to the season or are they going to let us down like all the other times they've started out hot? (Frank from Los Angeles, CA)
A: You should be getting excited, but keep it at tempered excitement. Don't forget that the Dodgers play in arguably the weakest division in baseball (AL West is pretty sorry too). The good news is that the Dodgers are clearly the best team in that weak division and have a very good chance at eclipsing 90 wins and securing a playoff spot for the second straight year. The bad news is that I'm not sure the Dodgers are the best team in the NL. Despite the rough start, I still think that the Mets are going to win the National League even though they usually figure out a way to blow it in the end.
But going back to the Dodgers, we clearly have the best lineup in the West and I expect at worst a 2 out of 3 series every time we play anyone within the division. You have to be excited by Billingsley and Kershaw at the 1 and 2. I was at the Kershaw 13-strikeout game. He's a beast. Kuroda will be solid once he comes off the DL with his non-injured oblique or whatever he's faking with. I think we need to add a decent veteran pitcher that is not named Randy Wolf before the trade deadline and I also like James McDonald at the 5-spot during the season and in middle relief during the playoffs. I am excited for a great Dodgers regular season and hopeful that anything can happen in the playoffs, so as I said, be excited, but keep it tempered.
Q: Why haven't you been talking about Manny Pacquiao against Ricky Hatton? 24/7 has been good and the fight should be great! I like Pacquiao by KO. (Brian from Santa Monica, CA)
A: It's tough for me to get excited about this fight because I think Ricky Hatton is one of the most over-hyped fighters of our generation. He gets big fights because he brings the entire UK with him anywhere he goes and they spend a boatload of money in Vegas. Hatton can't beat anyone legitimate without getting away with a ton of holding. And don't tell me that Jose Luis Castillo was legitimate that late in his career. That's like Calzaghe beating a 10 years past his prime Roy Jones Jr. Hatton's career is littered with questionable decisions by judges and victories whose significance get blown out of proportion. Manny Pacquiao on the other hand has beaten pretty much anyone of Mexican descent, and while yes, some were past their primes, the Barrera and Morales victories were no joke, especially the first Barrera fight. I'd argue that Juan Manuel Marquez deserved victories in his fights with Pac Man, but either way, they were great fights and Marquez is far superior to anyone Hatton has beaten or looked slightly on par with. I'm not sure that Pacquiao will expose Hatton the way Mayweather did, but while the fight will be action-packed, I think it will be one sided. Whether Pac Man can KO Hatton will depend on how much grappling and hugging goes on that detracts from time that would be spent with Hatton getting popped. On the bright side, this sets things up for a Pacquiao/Mayweather Jr. superfight. Now that's something to get excited about.
Note: 24/7 for the Pacquiao/Hatton fight is being carried by Mayweather Sr. That show should not happen if a Mayweather is not the central focus.
Q: Will Tiger win a major this year or have we seen the end of his dominance? (Phil M. from San Diego, CA)
A: Tiger will win a major this year and no, we have NOT seen the end of his dominance. Sorry Phil M. I'm honestly more surprised by Tiger's comeback win at Bay Hill that early in his comeback than by his struggles with the flat stick at Augusta, one of the toughest places to putt. Anyone who plays golf knows that when you take a long layoff, it's much easier to regain your swing than it is to regain your touch around the greens. Your swing involves more repetition than does a chipping or putting stroke. You should have some kind of routine and consistence in your short game strokes, but because you use the same stick for a shot from 3 feet as you do from 100 feet, it's much more about feel than it is about muscle memory. As a result, while you may have your swing and stroke back, it will take extra time to regain the feel that took you so long to establish. Tiger did spray some drives, but he did that when he was winning 2 majors per year. Tiger will be back when you see his confidence re-emerge on and around the greens. It's like predicting the stock market rebound based on when the volatility ceases. It's as simple as that.
Q: What should the Lions do with their #1 pick? Everyone says Stafford. Is he that good? (Don from Los Angeles, CA)
A: The NFL Draft is so much more anti-climatic than it used to be because teams don't pick anyone without a contract deal already worked out. I personally don't think that the Lions should pick Stafford despite Mel Kiper Jr.'s love affair with him. He might love Stafford more than he loves his own hair. Stafford was great to watch at Georgia and has a cannon for an arm, but I think his absolute ceiling is Jay Cutler Part II, which isn't bad, but I don't think that's your #1 pick. I think they should go with Jason Smith, the OT from Baylor or trade the pick. The Lions were last in the league in giving up sacks to defensive ends. It doesn't matter who you put back in the pocket if he's going to end up on the ground in 2.3 seconds. Build up your line, take a guy like Josh Freeman later in the draft and you'll get far better value. Freeman was a great QB at Kansas State but was overshadowed by the other QB's in the league getting all the press. I know it's not good when your QB is taking five steps out of bounds before he realized he gave up a safety, but giving your QB a chance to throw would be my first priority. It's a safer pick and I don't think anyone is touting Stafford as if he's Peyton Manning. Go with Smith.
Q: Who's your team in the EPL and have you been watching the Champions League? (Kevin from Beverly Hills, CA)
A: I am a Chelsea supporter. I've always been a fan, but when they hired Avram Grant, an Israeli national, to manage the club, I became utterly hooked. I didn't think he deserved to be fired, but Roman is nuts, lovably nuts though. In all seriousness, how many major European clubs would take a chance on an Israeli manager? So I support Chelsea and I can't stand Liverpool or Manchester United. To answer your second question, yes, I have been watching the Champions League games. I thought that Manchester United got lucky to get past Porto and the Chelsea/Liverpool match at Stamford Bridge was one of the most entertaining second legs you could ever hope to see. I think the announcers declared Chelsea the victors about 3 separate times before doubling back to say Liverpool wasn't out of it. The team that may have gotten lost in this for American viewers is Barcelona. If you don't get Gol TV and didn't see Barcelona march through to the semi-finals in the Champions League, you've missed the most potent offense I've seen in a while. Henry is coming into his own finally and he just adds to the core that included Messi, Eto'o, Iniesta, Xavi, Danny Alves coming from the back, etc. Then they've got Puyol and Valdes in the net and you have a very scary team. Don't forget they added Deco in the off-season too. I feel like I'm forgetting someone and look at all the guys I've already named. I said Barca was the favorite at the beginning of the tournament and while I'm pulling for Chelsea, I'm pretty nervous heading into this round. Manchester United clearly got the cakewalk of the draw. Arsenal may be decent but they're clearly the 4th of the Big 4 in the EPL. Man. U should have no problem getting to the finals. No matter who advances, the semi-finals will be great to watch.
Q: Are the Yankees going to turn it around when A-Rod comes back or will things just get worse? (Sean from Los Angeles, CA)
A: People may criticize A-Rod, and rightfully so based on his desperate to seek attention attitude and playoff woes, but A-Rod is consistently one of the top-5 hitters in the game during the regular season. Yankees fan are in such dire straights with this awful start that I think they'll embrace A-Rod when he comes back instead of resorting to boos as they might have a month prior. Will the Yankees turn it around? I say yes. A-Rod has a Manny-like effect on a lineup because he makes everybody else better by giving them better pitches to hit. Guys who were getting off-speed stuff will now get fastballs because pitchers don't want to face A-Rod with runners on, and A-Rod's presence increases the likelihood of runners on base for those hitting below him in the lineup, thus making a walk that much worse. Will the Yankees go all the way? Who knows? We're in the decade of anything can happen in the playoffs so I won't make any firm predictions there. But, even without Wang turning things around, A-Rod's return will put the Yankees back into the playoffs because of the additions of C.C. and Burnett. As to the last part of your question, things can't get any worse.
That'll do it for this edition of the Mailbag. Enjoy the Playoffs and your occasional trips to the ballpark. I know I will.
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