At last, the long awaited, or long overdue depending on your mood, Major League Baseball 2009 Preview is here.  Not too many surprises.  I'll let you read ahead and see for yourself though.  The teams will be listed by division and then in projected order of finish.

NL WEST

1.  Los Angeles Dodgers

If the Dodgers were ever going to have a shot at making some noise, this would have to be the season.  Manny will provide all the protection that the rest of the team requires and you know things are good when a guy like Matt Kemp can't hit higher than sixth in this lineup.  The Dodgers' pitching staff is lacking but not as much as some may think.  James McDonald will be just fine as the fifth starter.  The Dodgers will have to pick someone up when Randy Wolf gets injured but Broxton is a horse in the ninth and I'm still fine with the rest of the bullpen because I'm a big Kuo and Wade fan.  The Dodgers need decent efforts by the pitching staff but nothing like the herculean efforts that were required in past seasons.  We finally have some hitting.  No holes in this lineup.  The Dodgers are the team to beat in the West.  That's not saying much, but I'll take it.

2.  Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are the only threat to the Dodgers' winning the NL West.  They have a solid pitching staff, however, with Webb and Haren you'd think it'd be an amazing pitching staff.  But they have unproven Chad Qualls closing.  On top of that, try naming the rest of their starting rotation.  Props to you if you nailed more than one more.  I'm in an NL-only fantasy league and can't name their full staff.  The lineup is young and has some pop, but I think it's safe to say that this lineup will lead the league in strikeouts.  Chris Young and Mark Reynolds will hit their share of homers but each is a candidate for a 200-strikeout season.  I think Arizona contends but ultimately comes up short to finish second.

3.  San Francisco Giants

I'm not a big Giants fan, but why are people pretending like this is a .500 team?  Lincecum is amazing and Cain is quite good too.  But, when Fred Lewis, Bengie Molina, and Pablo Sandoval are your 3-4-5 hitters, I think you could be in some trouble.  They finish a distant third in this weak division.

4.  Colorado Rockies

This is a poor man's Arizona but without their ace in Jeff Francis.  Ubaldo Jimenez will have a breakout season as will Dexter Fowler in his rookie campaign, but Helton is getting old and that pitching staff is more than suspect.  Losing Matt Holiday didn't help much either.  An afterthought this season.

5.  San Diego Padres

They're bad.  Really bad.  Even with Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez I think this team struggles to win 70 games.  Chris Young needs to be the Chris Young of old for this team to even sniff .500.  I have no idea what this organization is doing.  Nothing short of a Jake Taylor appearance will save this season.

NL CENTRAL

1.  Chicago Cubs

This isn't as sure of a thing as most are projecting.  In my opinion, the Cubs were exposed by the Dodgers last year in the playoffs.  They completely flopped when it mattered most.  Do you trust Ryan Dempster for the whole season after watching him get all those walks, or the rest of the rotation for that matter?  How about Soriano in the clutch?  Does Derrek Lee stay healthy?  Are you worried about Aramis' decline in the power department?  Closer anyone?  This Cubs team has a lot of question marks.  Despite that, I like them to win this division because their lineup is still better than good.  I like Ted Lilly to have another solid season too.  Cubs eke this one out down the stretch provided they come to their senses and make Marmol their closer sooner than later.

2.  Cincinnati Reds

Here's my surprise pick.  I think the Reds have a legitimate chance to make some noise this year despite losing Adam Dunn.  Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are a year older and in line for breakout seasons.  And if you didn't know his name before, you'll know the name of Edison Volquez after this season.  The Reds feel to me like one of those Marlins teams that made it all the way with only about 3 or 4 guys that anybody's ever heard of.  They're a gritty team and they have a lot of guys who get on base.  If Jerry Hairston Jr. stays healthy, he is a very underrated leadoff man.  The one question I have is whether the bullpen can handle things and get to Cordero.  They need to clamp down to contend in this division and I'm not sure the middle relievers have it in them.  Jared Burton has a cannon.  He'll need to point it in the right direction.  The Reds are close but not quite there yet.

3.  St. Louis Cardinals

They're not higher because I am not totally convinced that Pujols will be healthy for an entire season.  The guy is a Triple Crown candidate and 1st pick in your fantasy league guy when healthy.  But watch and see what happens to this lineup if he does a DL stint.  On top of that, I'm not sold yet on the health of Wainwright and Carpenter.  Finally, the closer situation leaves a little to be desired.  Too many variables for me.  But, if they stay healthy, they will be contending.  Big if though.

4.  Milwaukee Brewers

Last season is going to feel like a long time ago for the Brew Crew and their fans.  They needed an MVP type effort from C.C. down the stretch to pull off that miracle run.  No C.C. means no contention this year.  I still like their lineup but when Jeff Suppan is your opening day starter and your closer doesn't hit 85 on the gun anymore, I'm not picking you to do much.

5.  Houston Astros

This projection is based on the current roster.  Remember though, the Astros bring in a lot of money, and in this economy, with other teams suffering, I could see the Astros cashing in on cheap talent when other teams like Detroit are forced to unload in a couple of months.  Provided that doesn't happen, the Astros will have to score 10 runs a game to mask how bad their rotation is.  After Oswalt it gets pretty ugly with Wandy Rodriguez as the clear 2 followed by Mike Hampton, Brian Mohler and Russ Ortiz.  That is what we call the WHIP killing unit.  Take the over in every Astros home game.

6.  Pittsburgh Pirates

The NL Central's argument for a relegation system in which the top three teams from the minors get promoted to the majors and the bottom three from the majors spend a year in the minors.  There is some young talent on the Pirates but the majority of their team doesn't crack a starting lineup in the rest of the division.  If anyone you know can name more than half of the Pirates' lineup and pitching staff, that person is a giant baseball nerd.  I have two starters on my fantasy team so I'm halfway to nerd-dom.  Another season in the cellar for the young guns.

NL EAST

1.  New York Mets

They went out and bought the answer to their biggest problem in getting K-Rod.  J.J. Putz was an underrated pickup as a setup guy too.  The starting rotation is still intact with Cy Santana followed by Pelfrey, Perez, Maine and co.  And we haven't even gotten to their lineup.  Reyes at the top and Wright, Delgado, Beltran in the middle.  Given the inevitable midseason bat they'll add and I think that this is finally the year that they hang on.

2.  Florida Marlins

I just like this team.  I think that this squad would win the 4x100m in the Olympics if you took their top 4.  They have some big bats in the form of guys that you've never heard of and their pitching staff could be scary good with the young guys (Nolasco, Johnson, Volstad).  Lindstrom is a legit closer and the more I look at this team, the less I see a real weakness.  As with Cincy in the Central, I just don't think the Marlins have enough to take down Goliath, but they could definitely make the Mets and the rest of the league sweat this one out.

3.  Philadelphia Phillies

This is what we call the World Series hangover.  Ok, so their lineup is still unreal, but I'm not enthralled with the news of Cole Hamels' elbow.  He threw a ton of innings last season and until I see him healthy, I'll refuse to believe that this team can contend again.  Unless you believe in the fountain of youth for Jamie Moyer that is.  This pitching staff was very top heavy last year and I'm not overly impressed by Myers and Blanton.  Sorry Phils fans but I think you'll have to take a year off from the playoffs.

4.  Atlanta Braves

I want to have them higher because I really like their rotation with the acquisitions of Lowe, Vazquez and Kawakami and the emergence of Jurrjens.  However, you have to be able to score runs and the Braves can't do that.  They have some recognizable names on the team but I'm seeing a lot of 3-2 and 2-1 games in their future.  Not sure they'll be on the right side of all of those.  If they can ride their rotation they could surprise some people but I don't think it's good enough to mask the problems at the plate.

5.  Washington Nationals

If this was a which team has the most outfielders contest, Washington would win.  Unfortunately, it's not.  Joe Lannan was their opening starter and as you guessed, it doesn't get better from there.  The Nationals have a decent lineup, but they'll be on the wrong side of a lot of high scoring games, despite playing in a pitchers' park.  Avoiding a 100-loss season would be nice.

RECAP

NL West      - Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Central  - Chicago Cubs
NL East       - New York Mets
Wildcard     - Florida Marlins

CHAMP       - New York Mets


AL WEST

1.  Anaheim Angels*

The Halos will be playing this season with a heavy heart after last night's tragic car accident.  Tragedy aside, the Angels are in the driver's seat in the West.  They were able to pick Brian Fuentes up to replace K-Rod.  Their middle relief is still solid.  The starting rotation needs Lackey and Santana to come back healthy, but they should.  Finally, the addition of Bobby Abreu will fill any voids that may have been left.  The lineup is very decent from top to bottom.  Not an Angels team that will threaten 100 wins, but 90 should be enough in this division.  They're capable of that.

2.  Oakland A's

The A's have been the masters of doing more with less.  Well, they're going to have to do a lot more with a lot less this season.  Their lineup is okay at best and the rotation is about as scary as a golden retriever puppy.  There isn't much to say about the A's other than that they'll probably contend because they always do.  It's Beane Ball.  No other explanation available.

3.  Texas Rangers

As usual, the Rangers will have no problem scoring runs.  They have two young studs in Kinsler and Hamilton.  But, unfortunately they have less than no pitching.  They should win this weak division with their lineup.  But they can't even contend in the West because I just got called up to be their 5th starter.  One of these days they'll figure out that you need to pitch half the time too.

4.  Seattle Mariners

Griffey and Beltre would be a solid core if this was 2001.  But in 2009, it's a problem.  A healthy Erik Bedard would mean a nice 1-2 with King Felix but, as with a lot of teams, I'm seeing a lot of low scoring games at home and without a good bullpen, Seattle won't be pulling enough of those out.  The cellar awaits.

AL CENTRAL

1.  Cleveland Indians

No C.C.  No problem.  Cliff Lee emerged as an ace after all.  I'm not sure throwing Carl Pavano out there is such a good idea, but that problem will take care of itself after he's on the DL in a week or two.  My real question with this team is Fausto Carmona.  He needs to regain his sinkerball to be effective and for this team to go deep.  I like Anthony Reyes and the addition of Kerry Wood.  The bullpen in general is one of the best in the business as well.  But more than that, look at their lineup.  If Travis Hafner can regain a semblance of a stroke, then that is a scary good lineup, especially once people start noticing how good Choo is.  This tortured city could have a nice break in a playoff run this season.  Picking up Pedro Cerano midseason wouldn't hurt though.

2.  Minnesota Twins

They're the Central's version of the A's.  They get things done despite the loss of key guys every year.  Their bullpen is dominant and they could have an unhittable pitcher in Liriano if he gets healthy.  Their offense has potential but I don't think there's enough there yet for them to win the division.  If they win it, they'll do it with breakout seasons by guys like Kevin Slowey.  I think they get close but come up just short.

3.  Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have a very underrated pitching staff with emerging stars Gavin Floyd and John Danks lined up for big seasons.  The bullpen is set with Jenks closing things, but the lineup is too young and has too many holes to score runs consistently.  White Sox fans will know what it's been like to have been a Dodgers fan for the last 20 years.  It's not fun to have a team that's out of it when you go down 3-0 in the early innings.

4.  Detroit Tigers

This is a sad story.  There is a zero percent chance that they get enough fans in the stands to avoid a fire sale by mid-summer.  They just have too many contracts they can't pay.  Witness Pudge and Sheff.  It's tough to evaluate this team when you know they're going to be losing talent as the season goes on.  I don't see Miguel Cabrera finishing the season a Tiger.  I'm sorry Detroit but this is going to be a rough one.

5.  Kansas City Royals

Some people are picking the Royals to do some damage this year.  Um, aren't these the Royals?  Isn't there a rule that mandates that the Royals finish in last?  Until proven otherwise, I'm sticking with the Royals in last.

AL EAST

1.  Tampa Bay Rays

They call it catching lightning in a bottle because it's a tough thing to do.  But you know what?  I think this team can do it again.  They're being cheap in sending Price to the minors so he doesn’t get the stats to warrant more money, but I think that could actually serve to their advantage when they call him up for the second half of the season.  It's like when the Spurs make Manu their 6th man.  He gives you that jolt and it's like you're playing with a safety net before he comes in.  While the Yanks and Sox re-upped, the Yanks especially, I still like a team with established roles and with no pressure.  It's tough for a team that just made the World Series to have no pressure, but when you're the Rays in the AL East, you're third fiddle to the Yanks and Sox.  I like Maddon.  I'll put my trust in him again.

2.  New York Yankees

The Yankees are too old in the wrong places and too inexperienced in others.  I can't imagine both C.C. and Burnett performing under the lights in Yankee Stadium all season without crumbling even a bit.  Teixeira should be fine and if nothing else his glove is always an asset.  But the elephant in the room is A-Rod.  When that guy returns it will make that clubhouse a zoo.  They have the talent to win and win by a lot but I think this team gets around 93-95 wins and comes up just short.

3.  Boston Red Sox

It's not a knock on the Sox to have them finishing third here because with 90 wins this season they absolutely will finish here.  Any other division besides the NL East and they likely win it.  But the pitching staff is too inconsistent and oft injured for me to think they can get to 95 or 100 wins this season.  They'll score runs as they always do, but I don't think they get enough leads to the 8th inning for Okajima and Papelbon to do their thing.

P.S.  Red Sox fans:  have fun with Brad Penny.  Signed, Dodgers fans.

4.  Toronto Blue Jays

They have zero pitching once you get past Roy Halladay.  Their bullpen is a complete joke.  They will have a very rough season in baseball's toughest division.  Their gritty lineup does not have nearly enough firepower to contend.

5.  Baltimore Orioles

Their lineup is actually pretty decent.  I see a breakout season from Adam Jones and Nick Markakis is a guy that doesn't get enough credit.  Brian Roberts gets on base and wreaks havoc so I like the Orioles to score a lot of runs.  But their pitching staff is like Toronto's minus Halladay.  Their bullpen might be worse than Toronto's too.  Despite a solid lineup, I think the organized walkout could be making its way back to Camden Yards.

RECAP

AL West      - Anaheim Angels
AL Central  - Cleveland Indians
AL East       - Tampa Bay Rays
Wildcard     - New York Yankees

CHAMP       - Tampa Bay Rays

WORLD SERIES CHAMP - New York Mets

There you have it.  The Mets give their fans a much deserved title after all of these September meltdowns.

* I know they're not really the Anaheim Angels anymore, but I have a rule, if you can't see downtown or Century City on a clear day from atop a tall building in your neighborhood, then you don't live in Los Angeles.  Sorry Anaheim.  You're not L.A.