Note:  I still like Illinois in the first round despite the loss of Frazier.

Bigger Note:  I still like UNC to get to the Final Four, although I am far less confident in that pick now that I heard Ty Lawson went from being fine to saying, "it's just pain when I'm cutting back and forth. When I'm running straight, it's not as bad. I can deal with it. But cutting back and forth, that's when the most pain comes."  He then added, "last week, when we were in the ACC tournament, I was just thinking, when is this going to get better? It's been like two weeks, and it's still kind of tough to run on. It's just draining to keep feeling like I'm doing all this stuff, getting up early in the morning for pool workouts and all this, and it's still not getting better."  Translation:  Bad news for North Carolina.  Zero chance at a Championship barring a miraculous recovery from injury for Mr. Lawson.

FINAL FOUR

1 Louisvile vs. 2 Memphis

It's always great when you have a rivalry game in the Tournament, but in the Final Four?  That's just icing on the cake.  You know that commercial where the sports fans are doing nice things for each other despite being from rival schools?  You know the one.  It ends with the Syracuse fan wiping the ranch dip out of the Georgetown fan's beard.  Well the Memphis and Louisville fans are looking at a computer and laughing together.  I can promise you that doesn't happen if these two teams meet up in Detroit. 

I think it's safe to say that there isn't a coaching edge in this game.  Both Pitino and Calipari will have their guys ready to play this game and they'll play at a high level.  Louisville wins this game if it can take advantage of its depth and expose Memphis' lack thereof.  Memphis wins this game if it can get all over Louisville on the defensive end the way it has done to almost every other team it has faced.  Louisville can be exposed when it's not knocking down its three-pointers as we have seen in some inexcusable losses this year (loss to UNLV, 90-57 loss at Notre Dame).  I like Memphis to win what I look at as a toss-up here.  Memphis will clamp down on Louisville, take care of the ball, and, as shocking as this sounds, Memphis is the better FT shooting team if this one goes down to the wire with a 69.6% to 64.3% edge.  Memphis over Louisville in a squeaker. 

1 North Carolina vs. 1 Pittsburgh

I would have had North Carolina as my National Champion if not for this morning's news.  Thank you to ESPN for saving my bracket.  North Carolina survived the loss of Marcus Ginyard early in the season but it won't survive having anything less than a great tournament out of Ty Lawson this late.  If Lawson doesn't play at 80% or better, North Carolina could easily go down before getting to Detroit.  I watched a lot of ACC ball this year and Lawson is one of those players you just don't want to bet against.  It is way past evident when he's not on the floor that the Tar Heels are a different team.  If LeVance Fields has the huge advantage at the battle of the PG's, which is what looks like will happen, I like Pittsburgh to win this one.  Hansbrough will struggle playing against a guy like Blair who can match his toughness, and without having to worry about Lawson's penetration, Pittsburgh will be able to close out on Ellington and Green to take away UNC's 3-ball.  Add to that the defensive deficiencies of North Carolina and you have Pittsburgh in the championship game, way past unchartered territory for the Panthers.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

1 Pittsburgh vs. 2 Memphis

Raise your hand if you think DeJuan Blair can go an entire tournament without getting into foul trouble.  Me neither.  I think Pitt gets some favorable matchups leading up to this point, but Memphis will attack the rim at every opportunity.  They run the 3-2 motion that lets its athletes get momentum going and Blair will be happy to meet the incomers to his lane head on.  Unfortunately, and this is the elephant in the room during the tournament, the zebras have a tendency to ruin big games.  Remember when we were so excited about Oden going up against Hibbert a couple of years ago only the refs gave both players some bogus foul calls and completely ruined the game?  Yeah, I remember too.  If Blair gets in foul trouble, Pitt is in major trouble in this one.  While Memphis is not the deepest team in the world, they are a balanced one.  Blair will expose Memphis' lack of size inside early, but he'll log some major minutes on the bench late in this one.  Take a look at Pitt's road wins and, outside of beating a Dyson-less UConn, I'm not seeing how well the Panthers handle the big road games.  That loss to a smaller Villanova could be very similar to what happens against Memphis in this one.  Just remember, Memphis is the underdog.  They're hungry.  The Tigers have been here before.  Calipari will be itching to make up for his brain fart last year and he's bringing a far superior FT shooting team to this one.  70% is not a great percentage, but it's way better than a sub-60% clip that Memphis fired at last year.  I like Memphis to come in as the more confident team, and I think Dixon and his Panthers may become a little unhinged early, especially if Blair gets a couple of fouls.  A lot of people are pointing to Memphis' losses early in the season as a reason why the Tigers won't go deep like they did last year.  But Memphis is not the same team that it was early on.  Memphis has not lost a game since putting Tyreke Evans at the 1 and that big win at Gonzaga said a lot about this team in my eyes.  In addition, Taggart is a tough guy for Pittsburgh to guard as a 6'10'' player that can hit outside.  I think that Memphis has what it takes to get it done this year and Calipari gets his vindication only one year after last year's collapse against Kansas.  Congratulations to Memphis in advance.  Actually, I should probably apologize to your fan base for officially ruling you out of contention by picking your team.  Either way, I'm already excited for the Madness to start tomorrow.

THE PICK:  MEMPHIS