Tourney Preview - West Regional
This was by far the most difficult region for me to predict and that's why I saved it for last. There are 5 teams in this region that are 10-1 or better to get to the Final Four and I can't see anyone making a straight-faced argument that there lies a clear cut favorite in the region. With the likes of Memphis, UConn, and Missouri as the favorites to go onto Detroit, nobody is getting anything resembling a home court advantage in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 in Glendale, Arizona. Despite all of that, I don't see a lot of first or second round drama in the West regional.
Coach You Don't Want to Face
John Calipari has taken the Memphis program to new heights. Remember how great he was at UMass? Where are they now? How did Memphis do before Calipari came to town? I don't know either. Calipari will motivate his crew by telling them that they're being disrespected in drawing a #2 seed in the West. His team will feed off of it and don't count out another Memphis run all the way to the big game.
Player to Watch
Tyreke Evans has been great, but the player to watch is still Hasheem Thabeet. He's the best defensive center that I've seen in college basketball in a long time. It's not like he plays in a weak conference out in the Big East and he still dominated play on the defensive end. At 7'3'' you'd hope that his offensive game would be a little better, but I'm sure Calhoun won't complain as long as his defensive game changer stays out of foul trouble.
Mid-Level Team You Don't Want to Face
Purdue is a 5-seed but is just now healthy with Robbie Hummel overcoming a bad back problem. There's a reason that Purdue has taken so long to come around and turn into a Big-10 Champion and that reason is Hummel. JaJuan Johnson is underrated in the middle and lest you forget about Purdue's leading man, E'Twaun Moore. This is a solid team masquerading as a 5-seed.
Upset Special
Utah State has enough to take down a hobbled Marquette squad. I loved Marquette early on but the loss of Dominic James will just be too much to overcome. Jerel McNeal is a gamechanger and could win this one by himself, but Utah State plays big inside and does not make the kinds of mistakes that Marquette feeds off of.
FIRST ROUND
Automatic advances: 1 Connecticut, 2 Memphis, 3 Missouri
4 Washington vs. 13 Mississippi State
The Pac-10 may feel a little snubbed having its champion designated a 4-seed, but nothing about Washington is overly impressive. The good news for Washington is that Mississippi State isn't very impressive either. The amount of mistakes and poor decisions in that SEC Final by both teams was astounding. The Huskies will pound the ball inside to Brockman and let the game develop from there. This game is in Portland, Oregon as well, another reason why the Bulldogs don't win this game.
5 Purdue vs. 12 Northern Iowa
A lot of people are picking Northern Iowa in this one and let me be the first to tell you that Northern Iowa does not have a shot in this game. They just don't. Northern Iowa got smoked earlier in the season against Marquette and have no other big names on their schedule outside of a loss to Siena and a win at Creighton. Purdue on the other hand is healthy at the right time, and unless Northern Iowa can figure out how to shoot at a far superior clip than they usually enjoy, I highly doubt they beat the Boilermakers. By the way, Purdue allows under 60 points a game.
6 Marquette vs. 11 Utah State
As much as I loved Marquette earlier in the year, the Golden Eagles just aren't the same as a two-headed monster as they were as a three-headed one. Losing Dominic James has clearly affected them in this recent stretch of games and Utah State is an impressive 11-seed that is always well-coached. I love Jerel McNeal, but not enough to pick Marquette here.
7 California vs. 10 Maryland
I went to the UCLA/Cal game earlier this year and found Cal to be very unimpressive. They can shoot the 3-ball well and local product Jordan Wilkes provides some nice size, but Cal does not past the eyeball test for me. Maryland, on the other hand, is a 10-seed for a reason and that's because they're great one night and awful the next. But I'll take my chances with a leader like Vasquez in this one.
8 BYU vs. 9 Texas A&M
BYU shoots 48.7% from the field, 38% from 3-point land and they don't turn the ball over. When you shoot that well and don't turn the ball over, good things are going to happen for you. A&M on the other hand does have some turnover woes and fails to be spectacular at any one thing. Texas A&M beat BYU last year by 5 in a first round NCAA matchup but BYU gets its revenge this year comfortably, although most are calling this a toss-up.
SECOND ROUND
1 Connecticut vs. 8 BYU
BYU will be a tougher test than some may expect for the Huskies. However those percentages that BYU is used to shooting at will go dramatically down when they're faced with the pressure that UConn will apply. UConn should get out okay in this one, even without Dyson.
2 Memphis vs. 10 Maryland
Memphis will overwhelm Maryland when the Terps have the ball. Memphis defends the ball maybe the best of anyone in the country. Maryland can't take advantage of Memphis' lack of size inside and while the Terps are capable of hanging in there with the best, Memphis is just too tall an order to reasonably think that Maryland can march on. I like Memphis a lot here.
3 Missouri vs. 11 Utah State
Utah State is a well-coached team that will not beat itself, but Missouri has more than enough firepower to win this one. The Tigers play every second of their 40-minute allotment. They'll quicken the pace of play against Utah State and tire them out with their deep bench. Missouri wins going away.
4 Washington vs. 5 Purdue
I like Lorenzo Romar and think he did a great job with Washington, which far exceeded expectations this season. However, Washington has a history of disappointing in the big dance and the Committee did them no favors assigning them Purdue in the second round. Purdue will force Washington into too many bad shots and clamp down come crunch time. Purdue is clicking at the right time.
SWEET 16
1 Connecticut vs. 5 Purdue
I really could make the case for Purdue in this game, and it looks like I'm not the only one with Vegas giving Purdue a 6 to 1 chance to go to the Final Four. However, unless they get Thabeet in foul trouble, I think UConn just has superior talent and has been tested all season, experience that will serve the Huskies well in this game. A.J. Price is a gamer and the Huskies ride him to the Elite 8.
2 Memphis vs. 3 Missouri
There are two things that I wish for. First, I'd like to win the California state lottery. Second, I wish that Memphis and Missouri weren't slated to play each other this early. I think both teams have a great chance at the Final Four and it's a shame that they're playing in the Sweet 16. I think Memphis wins this one because they're the slightly better version of Missouri and Tyreke Evans has the ability to take this team the distance. I'm not overly comfortable here, but I'm going to go with Memphis.
ELITE 8
1 Connecticut vs. 2 Memphis
To be quite honest, I think either Missouri or Memphis could beat UConn. It is in this round that UConn will really miss Dyson's services. Memphis will be in constant attack mode and really body UConn up inside. Taggart and Dozier have the requisite experience at this level of the tournament whereas UConn hasn't sniffed anything outside the first round for the better part of a decade. I'm not a big fan of the West region but I'll take Memphis and its experience and hope for the best.
THE PICK: MEMPHIS
Coach You Don't Want to Face
John Calipari has taken the Memphis program to new heights. Remember how great he was at UMass? Where are they now? How did Memphis do before Calipari came to town? I don't know either. Calipari will motivate his crew by telling them that they're being disrespected in drawing a #2 seed in the West. His team will feed off of it and don't count out another Memphis run all the way to the big game.
Player to Watch
Tyreke Evans has been great, but the player to watch is still Hasheem Thabeet. He's the best defensive center that I've seen in college basketball in a long time. It's not like he plays in a weak conference out in the Big East and he still dominated play on the defensive end. At 7'3'' you'd hope that his offensive game would be a little better, but I'm sure Calhoun won't complain as long as his defensive game changer stays out of foul trouble.
Mid-Level Team You Don't Want to Face
Purdue is a 5-seed but is just now healthy with Robbie Hummel overcoming a bad back problem. There's a reason that Purdue has taken so long to come around and turn into a Big-10 Champion and that reason is Hummel. JaJuan Johnson is underrated in the middle and lest you forget about Purdue's leading man, E'Twaun Moore. This is a solid team masquerading as a 5-seed.
Upset Special
Utah State has enough to take down a hobbled Marquette squad. I loved Marquette early on but the loss of Dominic James will just be too much to overcome. Jerel McNeal is a gamechanger and could win this one by himself, but Utah State plays big inside and does not make the kinds of mistakes that Marquette feeds off of.
FIRST ROUND
Automatic advances: 1 Connecticut, 2 Memphis, 3 Missouri
4 Washington vs. 13 Mississippi State
The Pac-10 may feel a little snubbed having its champion designated a 4-seed, but nothing about Washington is overly impressive. The good news for Washington is that Mississippi State isn't very impressive either. The amount of mistakes and poor decisions in that SEC Final by both teams was astounding. The Huskies will pound the ball inside to Brockman and let the game develop from there. This game is in Portland, Oregon as well, another reason why the Bulldogs don't win this game.
5 Purdue vs. 12 Northern Iowa
A lot of people are picking Northern Iowa in this one and let me be the first to tell you that Northern Iowa does not have a shot in this game. They just don't. Northern Iowa got smoked earlier in the season against Marquette and have no other big names on their schedule outside of a loss to Siena and a win at Creighton. Purdue on the other hand is healthy at the right time, and unless Northern Iowa can figure out how to shoot at a far superior clip than they usually enjoy, I highly doubt they beat the Boilermakers. By the way, Purdue allows under 60 points a game.
6 Marquette vs. 11 Utah State
As much as I loved Marquette earlier in the year, the Golden Eagles just aren't the same as a two-headed monster as they were as a three-headed one. Losing Dominic James has clearly affected them in this recent stretch of games and Utah State is an impressive 11-seed that is always well-coached. I love Jerel McNeal, but not enough to pick Marquette here.
7 California vs. 10 Maryland
I went to the UCLA/Cal game earlier this year and found Cal to be very unimpressive. They can shoot the 3-ball well and local product Jordan Wilkes provides some nice size, but Cal does not past the eyeball test for me. Maryland, on the other hand, is a 10-seed for a reason and that's because they're great one night and awful the next. But I'll take my chances with a leader like Vasquez in this one.
8 BYU vs. 9 Texas A&M
BYU shoots 48.7% from the field, 38% from 3-point land and they don't turn the ball over. When you shoot that well and don't turn the ball over, good things are going to happen for you. A&M on the other hand does have some turnover woes and fails to be spectacular at any one thing. Texas A&M beat BYU last year by 5 in a first round NCAA matchup but BYU gets its revenge this year comfortably, although most are calling this a toss-up.
SECOND ROUND
1 Connecticut vs. 8 BYU
BYU will be a tougher test than some may expect for the Huskies. However those percentages that BYU is used to shooting at will go dramatically down when they're faced with the pressure that UConn will apply. UConn should get out okay in this one, even without Dyson.
2 Memphis vs. 10 Maryland
Memphis will overwhelm Maryland when the Terps have the ball. Memphis defends the ball maybe the best of anyone in the country. Maryland can't take advantage of Memphis' lack of size inside and while the Terps are capable of hanging in there with the best, Memphis is just too tall an order to reasonably think that Maryland can march on. I like Memphis a lot here.
3 Missouri vs. 11 Utah State
Utah State is a well-coached team that will not beat itself, but Missouri has more than enough firepower to win this one. The Tigers play every second of their 40-minute allotment. They'll quicken the pace of play against Utah State and tire them out with their deep bench. Missouri wins going away.
4 Washington vs. 5 Purdue
I like Lorenzo Romar and think he did a great job with Washington, which far exceeded expectations this season. However, Washington has a history of disappointing in the big dance and the Committee did them no favors assigning them Purdue in the second round. Purdue will force Washington into too many bad shots and clamp down come crunch time. Purdue is clicking at the right time.
SWEET 16
1 Connecticut vs. 5 Purdue
I really could make the case for Purdue in this game, and it looks like I'm not the only one with Vegas giving Purdue a 6 to 1 chance to go to the Final Four. However, unless they get Thabeet in foul trouble, I think UConn just has superior talent and has been tested all season, experience that will serve the Huskies well in this game. A.J. Price is a gamer and the Huskies ride him to the Elite 8.
2 Memphis vs. 3 Missouri
There are two things that I wish for. First, I'd like to win the California state lottery. Second, I wish that Memphis and Missouri weren't slated to play each other this early. I think both teams have a great chance at the Final Four and it's a shame that they're playing in the Sweet 16. I think Memphis wins this one because they're the slightly better version of Missouri and Tyreke Evans has the ability to take this team the distance. I'm not overly comfortable here, but I'm going to go with Memphis.
ELITE 8
1 Connecticut vs. 2 Memphis
To be quite honest, I think either Missouri or Memphis could beat UConn. It is in this round that UConn will really miss Dyson's services. Memphis will be in constant attack mode and really body UConn up inside. Taggart and Dozier have the requisite experience at this level of the tournament whereas UConn hasn't sniffed anything outside the first round for the better part of a decade. I'm not a big fan of the West region but I'll take Memphis and its experience and hope for the best.
THE PICK: MEMPHIS
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