Tourney Preview - East Regional
The East Regional is one of those brackets where I knew who I would have in the Final Four after about five seconds, but that's about all that I was sure of. Pittsburgh isn't as much of a lock as North Carolina, but, unless DeJuan Blair gets into a lot of foul trouble and Fields disappears at the same time, I don't see anyone in this draw taking down the Panthers. I'm not too high on Duke, but it's not like I see a giant waiting in the weeds for them until a showdown with Pitt. I wish I could try and spin the UCLA/Villanova second round matchup in my Bruins' favor, but it's not in the cards.
Coach You Don't Want to Face
This may come as a surprise with all of the great coaches in this region, but I'm going to go with an unlikely guy here in Bo Ryan. First, anybody willing to do the Soulja Boy dance and have it played during a home game on the jumbotron has a leg up on the competition. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rq5zEm_cWUQ). As for Mr. Ryan's basketball exploits, his teams always play beyond their abilities. Remember when Alando Tucker was a Player of the Year candidate? Anybody know what he's doing now? Something tells me he's not in the Rookie of the Year conversation. Ryan's teams always defend, rebound, and frustrate opponents. This is a dangerous 12-seed.
Player to Watch
Scottie Reynolds of Villanova can take over a game. He's only 6'2'' but he can blow by whoever's guarding him. You don't want to give him space because he has the green light from everywhere inside 30-feet and for good reason. He can carry Villanova to a Sweet-16 and if he gets hot, he has the ability to take the Wildcats to the Final Four. Keep in mind that 'Nova already has a 10-point win over Pitt this season.
Mid-Level Team You Don't Want to Face
None. This bracket is devoid of a scary mid-seed. Do yourself a favor and go with high seeds and feel free to pick an upset or two against the middle ones.
Upset Special
Wisconsin over Florida State. This is a dangerously large discrepancy in coaching ability between Bo Ryan at Wisconsin and Leonard Hamilton at Florida State. Wisconsin does lack some of the talent that Florida State will march out there, but Ryan will make sure that this game is played at his pace and will frustrate the Seminoles' talented starters.
FIRST ROUND
Automatic advances: 1 Pittsburgh, 2 Duke, 3 Villanova
4 Xavier vs. 13 Portland State
Well, it's never advisable to take a 13-seed over a 4-seed, but if you were ever going to do it, this is the game. I'm not going to pretend that Portland State is a world beater, but Xavier is begging for an early round exit. They turn the ball over and lost everyone from last year's Elite 8 run. Unfortunately, I think Portland State relies too heavily on the 3-ball and Xavier defends the 3-point arc pretty well. I think Xavier escapes a close one, but would not be at all surprised by an upset here. Take Xavier, but be wary of that pick.
5 Florida State vs. 12 Wisconsin
For someone who spends a lot of time bashing the Big-10, I sure do pick a lot of Big-10 teams. This game is no different. Florida State cannot shoot the outside shot and they have an assist/turnover ratio that is not close to sniffing an even 1.00. Toney Douglass will get his, but I don't see him getting much help from his teammates in this matchup. Florida State will get caught trying to speed this one up and Bo Ryan's group will frustrate the Seminoles in this 5 vs. 12 upset.
6 UCLA vs. 11 VCU
This is the trendy upset pick of the first round because of the magic that Eric Maynor pulled a couple of years ago against Duke. Unfortunately for VCU, their strength doesn't play into UCLA's weakness. The Bruins struggle against teams that slow it down and zone it up. VCU pressures the ball all over the place with aggressive man-to-man defense. That won't do anything to the Bruins who have great ball handlers in Collison and Holiday. UCLA wins this one with more ease than most are expecting.
7 Texas vs. 10 Minnesota
Don't worry, my love affair with the Big-10 ends here. Tubby Smith has done a great job, but Minnesota is not a great team. Texas was an elite team according to most going off of the Longhorns' Top 10 preseason ranking. They have played up and down all season and while Minnesota will pressure the ball, it that won't bother Abrams and Co. Texas stomps the Gophers.
8 Oklahoma State vs. 9 Tennessee
Flip a coin in this one. Both of these teams are enigmas. Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma the other day. Tennessee blew the SEC Final. Great analysis so far is what I bet your'e thinking. I'm pretty sure the majority of your bracket competitors will go with Tennessee here because of the marquee names like Chism and Smith. But if Chism isn't hitting, and it takes him about 15 shots to figure that out, Tennessee could be in for a long night. Oklahoma State doesn't have any size, but I see the Vols taking this one outside a little too often. Tennessee may be the Vegas favorite in this one, but despite how much I love Bruce Pearl, I'm going with the Pokes in this one.
SECOND ROUND
1 Pittsburgh vs. 8 Oklahoma State
Remember how I said that Oklahoma State has no size. Let's just say that Pittsburgh is not the ideal matchup for them. Moses may be able to handle Blair, or at least contain him slightly, but who guards Young and Biggs? Sorry Pokes, no chance in this one.
2 Duke vs. 7 Texas
Trendy upset pick alert! I have spoken to a lot of people who have Texas winning this one, partially because they have Villanova going to the Elite 8 anyway. Well, don't be one of those people. Duke has had some recent struggles in the Tourney, but they're not as young as they've been in the past and they're playing some great ball since putting Paulus on the bench, moving Scheyer to the point, and starting freshman, Elliot Williams. Texas is not going to be able to match Duke's efficiency on offense and Duke wins by double digits.
3 Villanova vs. 6 UCLA
Villanova is exactly the kind of team that gives my Bruins problems. They defend the ball very well and rebound with tenacity despite a lack of size. UCLA's only chance in this one is shutting down Villanova's bigs or at least getting them in some foul trouble. By the way, did I mention this game is in Philly where Villanova is located? It pains me to say it, but UCLA's run and Collison, Shipp, and Aboya's careers end early.
4 Xavier vs. 12 Wisconsin
I may not have been able to have Portland State take down Xavier but I sure as heck can have Wisconsin doing it. Sean Miller is a solid coach and has done a great job this year after losing a lot of talent, so coaching won't be the Musketeers' downfall as it was with the Seminoles. However, great coaching won't mask the aforementioned turnover problems that Xavier has. Wisconsin does enough to show the Committee why it deserved a better seed than the 12 that it got and advance to the Sweet 16.
SWEET 16
1 Pittsburgh vs. 12 Wisconsin
I don't think that Wisconsin can qualify as a Cinderella despite the 12-seed, but either way, the clock will strike midnight when the Badgers go up against one of the nation's top teams. Everything that Wisconsin does, rebound, defend, protect the ball, etc., Pitt does better. Blair, Fields, and the rest of the Panthers win a low-scoring game to get over the hump and reach an Elite 8 for Jamie Dixon.
2 Duke vs. 3 Villanova
Villanova loses its home field advantage by leaving Philadelphia, but it's not like Boston is that far away either. However, I think Duke will get some good play out of Scheyer and Singler here and while Villanova has an X-factor in Reynolds, Duke has its own in Gerald Henderson. Henderson will be a tough matchup for 'Nova and Duke does just enough to move on.
ELITE 8
1 Pittsburgh vs. 2 Duke
Duke's lack of a big presence inside will kill it for them in this mismatch on the interior. The Blue Devils just have no answer for Pitt's inside game and Pitt is more than able to defend on the other end of the court. LeVance Fields and his 4.1 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio will make sure that Pitt takes care of the ball, preventing Duke from getting some of those transition three-pointers that they love to get. In case you're wondering, 4.1 to 1 is an insanely good ratio. Pitt takes care of business and Jamie Dixon's long awaited trip to a Final Four is here. Too bad the vacation spot this year is Detroit, MI. Something tells me he won't complain.
Coach You Don't Want to Face
This may come as a surprise with all of the great coaches in this region, but I'm going to go with an unlikely guy here in Bo Ryan. First, anybody willing to do the Soulja Boy dance and have it played during a home game on the jumbotron has a leg up on the competition. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rq5zEm_cWUQ). As for Mr. Ryan's basketball exploits, his teams always play beyond their abilities. Remember when Alando Tucker was a Player of the Year candidate? Anybody know what he's doing now? Something tells me he's not in the Rookie of the Year conversation. Ryan's teams always defend, rebound, and frustrate opponents. This is a dangerous 12-seed.
Player to Watch
Scottie Reynolds of Villanova can take over a game. He's only 6'2'' but he can blow by whoever's guarding him. You don't want to give him space because he has the green light from everywhere inside 30-feet and for good reason. He can carry Villanova to a Sweet-16 and if he gets hot, he has the ability to take the Wildcats to the Final Four. Keep in mind that 'Nova already has a 10-point win over Pitt this season.
Mid-Level Team You Don't Want to Face
None. This bracket is devoid of a scary mid-seed. Do yourself a favor and go with high seeds and feel free to pick an upset or two against the middle ones.
Upset Special
Wisconsin over Florida State. This is a dangerously large discrepancy in coaching ability between Bo Ryan at Wisconsin and Leonard Hamilton at Florida State. Wisconsin does lack some of the talent that Florida State will march out there, but Ryan will make sure that this game is played at his pace and will frustrate the Seminoles' talented starters.
FIRST ROUND
Automatic advances: 1 Pittsburgh, 2 Duke, 3 Villanova
4 Xavier vs. 13 Portland State
Well, it's never advisable to take a 13-seed over a 4-seed, but if you were ever going to do it, this is the game. I'm not going to pretend that Portland State is a world beater, but Xavier is begging for an early round exit. They turn the ball over and lost everyone from last year's Elite 8 run. Unfortunately, I think Portland State relies too heavily on the 3-ball and Xavier defends the 3-point arc pretty well. I think Xavier escapes a close one, but would not be at all surprised by an upset here. Take Xavier, but be wary of that pick.
5 Florida State vs. 12 Wisconsin
For someone who spends a lot of time bashing the Big-10, I sure do pick a lot of Big-10 teams. This game is no different. Florida State cannot shoot the outside shot and they have an assist/turnover ratio that is not close to sniffing an even 1.00. Toney Douglass will get his, but I don't see him getting much help from his teammates in this matchup. Florida State will get caught trying to speed this one up and Bo Ryan's group will frustrate the Seminoles in this 5 vs. 12 upset.
6 UCLA vs. 11 VCU
This is the trendy upset pick of the first round because of the magic that Eric Maynor pulled a couple of years ago against Duke. Unfortunately for VCU, their strength doesn't play into UCLA's weakness. The Bruins struggle against teams that slow it down and zone it up. VCU pressures the ball all over the place with aggressive man-to-man defense. That won't do anything to the Bruins who have great ball handlers in Collison and Holiday. UCLA wins this one with more ease than most are expecting.
7 Texas vs. 10 Minnesota
Don't worry, my love affair with the Big-10 ends here. Tubby Smith has done a great job, but Minnesota is not a great team. Texas was an elite team according to most going off of the Longhorns' Top 10 preseason ranking. They have played up and down all season and while Minnesota will pressure the ball, it that won't bother Abrams and Co. Texas stomps the Gophers.
8 Oklahoma State vs. 9 Tennessee
Flip a coin in this one. Both of these teams are enigmas. Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma the other day. Tennessee blew the SEC Final. Great analysis so far is what I bet your'e thinking. I'm pretty sure the majority of your bracket competitors will go with Tennessee here because of the marquee names like Chism and Smith. But if Chism isn't hitting, and it takes him about 15 shots to figure that out, Tennessee could be in for a long night. Oklahoma State doesn't have any size, but I see the Vols taking this one outside a little too often. Tennessee may be the Vegas favorite in this one, but despite how much I love Bruce Pearl, I'm going with the Pokes in this one.
SECOND ROUND
1 Pittsburgh vs. 8 Oklahoma State
Remember how I said that Oklahoma State has no size. Let's just say that Pittsburgh is not the ideal matchup for them. Moses may be able to handle Blair, or at least contain him slightly, but who guards Young and Biggs? Sorry Pokes, no chance in this one.
2 Duke vs. 7 Texas
Trendy upset pick alert! I have spoken to a lot of people who have Texas winning this one, partially because they have Villanova going to the Elite 8 anyway. Well, don't be one of those people. Duke has had some recent struggles in the Tourney, but they're not as young as they've been in the past and they're playing some great ball since putting Paulus on the bench, moving Scheyer to the point, and starting freshman, Elliot Williams. Texas is not going to be able to match Duke's efficiency on offense and Duke wins by double digits.
3 Villanova vs. 6 UCLA
Villanova is exactly the kind of team that gives my Bruins problems. They defend the ball very well and rebound with tenacity despite a lack of size. UCLA's only chance in this one is shutting down Villanova's bigs or at least getting them in some foul trouble. By the way, did I mention this game is in Philly where Villanova is located? It pains me to say it, but UCLA's run and Collison, Shipp, and Aboya's careers end early.
4 Xavier vs. 12 Wisconsin
I may not have been able to have Portland State take down Xavier but I sure as heck can have Wisconsin doing it. Sean Miller is a solid coach and has done a great job this year after losing a lot of talent, so coaching won't be the Musketeers' downfall as it was with the Seminoles. However, great coaching won't mask the aforementioned turnover problems that Xavier has. Wisconsin does enough to show the Committee why it deserved a better seed than the 12 that it got and advance to the Sweet 16.
SWEET 16
1 Pittsburgh vs. 12 Wisconsin
I don't think that Wisconsin can qualify as a Cinderella despite the 12-seed, but either way, the clock will strike midnight when the Badgers go up against one of the nation's top teams. Everything that Wisconsin does, rebound, defend, protect the ball, etc., Pitt does better. Blair, Fields, and the rest of the Panthers win a low-scoring game to get over the hump and reach an Elite 8 for Jamie Dixon.
2 Duke vs. 3 Villanova
Villanova loses its home field advantage by leaving Philadelphia, but it's not like Boston is that far away either. However, I think Duke will get some good play out of Scheyer and Singler here and while Villanova has an X-factor in Reynolds, Duke has its own in Gerald Henderson. Henderson will be a tough matchup for 'Nova and Duke does just enough to move on.
ELITE 8
1 Pittsburgh vs. 2 Duke
Duke's lack of a big presence inside will kill it for them in this mismatch on the interior. The Blue Devils just have no answer for Pitt's inside game and Pitt is more than able to defend on the other end of the court. LeVance Fields and his 4.1 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio will make sure that Pitt takes care of the ball, preventing Duke from getting some of those transition three-pointers that they love to get. In case you're wondering, 4.1 to 1 is an insanely good ratio. Pitt takes care of business and Jamie Dixon's long awaited trip to a Final Four is here. Too bad the vacation spot this year is Detroit, MI. Something tells me he won't complain.
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