Tourney Preview - South Regional
I'll skip the intro because if you have someone other than North Carolina winning this bracket, your reason had better be: I think Ty Lawson's toe will internally combust. Otherwise, you need to have your head examined.
Coach You Don't Want to Face
Herb Sendek. For those of you who are not Pac-10 fans, this is a coach that has taken over the Sun Devils program and transformed it. His gameplans are always spot on, as I can attest watching the Sun Devils wear down my Bruins at Pauley Pavilion and the Sun Devils very rarily have anything more than a sporadic lapse.
Player to Watch
Ty Lawson. If he was healthy, I'd say you already know what to expect, but watch him early on. If he looks solid, then UNC may be the favorite to win it all. If he's not, I'm not sure the Tar Heels get out of the Sweet 16. James Harden is another guy to keep an eye on. He's projected as the #5 pick in the NBA Draft and for good reason from what I've seen. By the way, don't be fooled by my glowing words about Arizona State. I really don't like the school one bit, but in Harden and Sendek above, you have to give credit where credit is due.
Mid-Level Team You Don't Want to Face
Gonzaga. The Zags may have disappointed in a lot of NCAA Tournaments lately, but Heytvelt is back from his weed-smoking trip and has looked great this season. The Zags rolled through the competition in conference play and can beat any team in the nation on any given night. Mark Few is no slouch as a coach either.
Upset Special
Michigan over Clemson. I know that a 10 over a 7 is not a big upset, but people are very high on Clemson as is Vegas with a 5.5-point spread in this first round matchup. However, Clemson hasn't seen anything resembling a Jim Beilein team in the ACC. Michigan's 1-3-1 defense can frustrate teams that haven't seen it and I see that happening in this one.
FIRST ROUND
Automatic advances: 1 North Carolina, 2 Oklahoma, 3 Syracuse
4 Gonzaga vs. 13 Akron
While Akron has the benefit of a lot of LeBron James' money because the Zips' coach was Bron Bron's high school coach, I don't think King James gets his wish with an upset over Gonzaga. This game will be a virtual home game for Gonzaga in Portland and it's not like the Zags needed an even larger advantage to upend the Zips in this one. The Zips haven't seen a team like Gonzaga and will struggle to rebound the ball with an undersized lineup. The Zags roll in this one.
5 Illinois vs. 12 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky played one of the most exciting games I've seen in last year's tournament beating 5-seeded Drake 101-99 (OT) on a 35-foot running three at the buzzer. They almost beat UCLA in the Sweet 16 as well, but I think Illinois is too much for the Hilltoppers to handle. The balanced Illini attack will sneak by this dangerous 12-seed.
6 Arizona State vs. 11 Temple
Both of these teams have phenomenal go-to guys in ASU's Harden and Temple's Dionte Christmas. Harden is the more polished of the two and sports the superior supporting cast. Sendek's matchup zone will frustrate Mr. Christmas and Harden will lead the Sun Devils into Round 2.
7 Clemson vs. 10 Michigan
I don't like going against Jim Beilein in a close game. He always has great out-of-bounds plays that get cheap points and his 1-3-1 defense is a tough zone to crack. Manny Harris is the type of gamer that can lead a team like Michigan to an upset victory here. Clemson relies on a full-court press and I think Harris and the Wolverines have what it takes to get through both it and the Tigers.
8 LSU vs. 9 Butler
LSU had a great regular season and Trent Johnson is a deserving Coach of the Year candidate. But LSU struggled against an energetic Mississippi State team on a mission and looked sloppy in the process. One loss does not define a season, but now is not the right time to be slumping if you're a team like LSU. I guess you could say the same for Butler though, which lost its conference tournament final at home to Cleveland State. Butler beat an overrated Xavier team that lost a lot of its talent from last year's Elite 8 team. Butler too lacks the experience in its lineup that it has relied on in the past. While I'm not too high on LSU or the SEC in general this year (unless we're talking football), I see LSU's athleticism getting it through to the second round in a close game.
SECOND ROUND
1 North Carolina vs. 8 LSU
I may have had LSU getting by Butler on athleticism, but not too many teams can rely on athleticism to get past Roy Williams' crew. I expect Ty Lawson is telling the truth about his toe's being fine now and I see North Carolina cruising past LSU. It was a great season for the Bayou Bengals but it comes to an end against the Tar Heels.
2 Oklahoma vs. 10 Michigan
I've seen a lot of people taking Clemson over Michigan, which is fine, but they're taking Clemson over Oklahoma too. I know Booker is good, but have you seen Blake Griffin? The guy commands a double-team and is still unstoppable. The guys getting less press but impressing nonetheless for the Sooners are 3-point assassin, Austin Johnson and freshman, Willie Warren. The Sooners shoot the ball 48.9% from the field and hold the opposition to under 40%. I don't see that resulting in a second round upset against the Wolverines or any other 7 or 10 seed for that matter.
3 Syracuse vs. 6 Arizona State
Everybody is in LOVE with Syracuse now. I think the entire ESPN and CBS crews would have Johnny Flynn's baby at this point. The Orange can shoot the 3-ball and defend it consistently in Boeheim's patented 2-3 zone, but Syracuse doesn't exactly take care of the ball. I see Arizona State's matchup zone causing the Orange some problems, and if this is a close game, I'll go with Arizona State's 74.0 free throw percentage over Syracuse's 63.9.
4 Gonzaga vs. 5 Illinois
I may have been able to talk myself into the Illini's getting past the Hilltoppers, but the Zags in Portland is a little different. Gonzaga may struggle in this low scoring game, but it's not like Illinois is a world beater in games of the low-scoring variety with a 38-33 loss to Penn State on the record this season. Illinois' lack of depth will matter against the talent that the Zags march out there. Illinois' 5-5 road record could spell trouble too because this game will feel like a road test. I like the Zags getting out of the Portland pod.
SWEET 16
1 North Carolina vs. 4 Gonzaga
Gonzaga definitely has the talent to contend with North Carolina. The question is whether they have the ability to pull this one out if it comes down to the wire. I think we can all agree that UNC will not be blown out in any game and do you really see Pargo finally coming through down the stretch with UNC's talented players locking down when it counts? I don't. I think this is a close game that those with the Tar Heels going all the way will sweat out. But at the end of the day, the Tar Heels will sweat this one out too.
2 Oklahoma vs. 6 Arizona State
Arizona State will not be able to stop Blake Griffin. Their zone will focus on him and Oklahoma has a couple of perimeter shooters that can open up the floor. It will be a pick your poison day for Arizona State and it's just a matter of time before Griffin takes this game over. I don't see him in foul trouble in this one either if you were hoping for that with Pendergraph the only big to contend with. Arizona State and Harden go down in a tough one to Oklahoma.
ELITE 8
1 North Carolina vs. 2 Oklahoma
Griffin against Hansbrough inside is an intriguing matchup, but while that's intriguing, the Sooner's lack of an answer for Ty Lawson is not. Warren may be coming on of late, but he's by no means going to be able to stick with the biggest game changer in this bracket. UNC has depth and the ability to rebound, something that Oklahoma lacks with nobody outside of Griffin contributing on the boards. If Griffin for whatever reason gets into foul trouble, this one could be over early. Finally, when Oklahoma is in a high-scoring game, they tend to struggle. I don't see any way to avoid that against the Tar Heels. North Carolina has an easier time in this one than it had in the previous round against Gonzaga.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA
Coach You Don't Want to Face
Herb Sendek. For those of you who are not Pac-10 fans, this is a coach that has taken over the Sun Devils program and transformed it. His gameplans are always spot on, as I can attest watching the Sun Devils wear down my Bruins at Pauley Pavilion and the Sun Devils very rarily have anything more than a sporadic lapse.
Player to Watch
Ty Lawson. If he was healthy, I'd say you already know what to expect, but watch him early on. If he looks solid, then UNC may be the favorite to win it all. If he's not, I'm not sure the Tar Heels get out of the Sweet 16. James Harden is another guy to keep an eye on. He's projected as the #5 pick in the NBA Draft and for good reason from what I've seen. By the way, don't be fooled by my glowing words about Arizona State. I really don't like the school one bit, but in Harden and Sendek above, you have to give credit where credit is due.
Mid-Level Team You Don't Want to Face
Gonzaga. The Zags may have disappointed in a lot of NCAA Tournaments lately, but Heytvelt is back from his weed-smoking trip and has looked great this season. The Zags rolled through the competition in conference play and can beat any team in the nation on any given night. Mark Few is no slouch as a coach either.
Upset Special
Michigan over Clemson. I know that a 10 over a 7 is not a big upset, but people are very high on Clemson as is Vegas with a 5.5-point spread in this first round matchup. However, Clemson hasn't seen anything resembling a Jim Beilein team in the ACC. Michigan's 1-3-1 defense can frustrate teams that haven't seen it and I see that happening in this one.
FIRST ROUND
Automatic advances: 1 North Carolina, 2 Oklahoma, 3 Syracuse
4 Gonzaga vs. 13 Akron
While Akron has the benefit of a lot of LeBron James' money because the Zips' coach was Bron Bron's high school coach, I don't think King James gets his wish with an upset over Gonzaga. This game will be a virtual home game for Gonzaga in Portland and it's not like the Zags needed an even larger advantage to upend the Zips in this one. The Zips haven't seen a team like Gonzaga and will struggle to rebound the ball with an undersized lineup. The Zags roll in this one.
5 Illinois vs. 12 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky played one of the most exciting games I've seen in last year's tournament beating 5-seeded Drake 101-99 (OT) on a 35-foot running three at the buzzer. They almost beat UCLA in the Sweet 16 as well, but I think Illinois is too much for the Hilltoppers to handle. The balanced Illini attack will sneak by this dangerous 12-seed.
6 Arizona State vs. 11 Temple
Both of these teams have phenomenal go-to guys in ASU's Harden and Temple's Dionte Christmas. Harden is the more polished of the two and sports the superior supporting cast. Sendek's matchup zone will frustrate Mr. Christmas and Harden will lead the Sun Devils into Round 2.
7 Clemson vs. 10 Michigan
I don't like going against Jim Beilein in a close game. He always has great out-of-bounds plays that get cheap points and his 1-3-1 defense is a tough zone to crack. Manny Harris is the type of gamer that can lead a team like Michigan to an upset victory here. Clemson relies on a full-court press and I think Harris and the Wolverines have what it takes to get through both it and the Tigers.
8 LSU vs. 9 Butler
LSU had a great regular season and Trent Johnson is a deserving Coach of the Year candidate. But LSU struggled against an energetic Mississippi State team on a mission and looked sloppy in the process. One loss does not define a season, but now is not the right time to be slumping if you're a team like LSU. I guess you could say the same for Butler though, which lost its conference tournament final at home to Cleveland State. Butler beat an overrated Xavier team that lost a lot of its talent from last year's Elite 8 team. Butler too lacks the experience in its lineup that it has relied on in the past. While I'm not too high on LSU or the SEC in general this year (unless we're talking football), I see LSU's athleticism getting it through to the second round in a close game.
SECOND ROUND
1 North Carolina vs. 8 LSU
I may have had LSU getting by Butler on athleticism, but not too many teams can rely on athleticism to get past Roy Williams' crew. I expect Ty Lawson is telling the truth about his toe's being fine now and I see North Carolina cruising past LSU. It was a great season for the Bayou Bengals but it comes to an end against the Tar Heels.
2 Oklahoma vs. 10 Michigan
I've seen a lot of people taking Clemson over Michigan, which is fine, but they're taking Clemson over Oklahoma too. I know Booker is good, but have you seen Blake Griffin? The guy commands a double-team and is still unstoppable. The guys getting less press but impressing nonetheless for the Sooners are 3-point assassin, Austin Johnson and freshman, Willie Warren. The Sooners shoot the ball 48.9% from the field and hold the opposition to under 40%. I don't see that resulting in a second round upset against the Wolverines or any other 7 or 10 seed for that matter.
3 Syracuse vs. 6 Arizona State
Everybody is in LOVE with Syracuse now. I think the entire ESPN and CBS crews would have Johnny Flynn's baby at this point. The Orange can shoot the 3-ball and defend it consistently in Boeheim's patented 2-3 zone, but Syracuse doesn't exactly take care of the ball. I see Arizona State's matchup zone causing the Orange some problems, and if this is a close game, I'll go with Arizona State's 74.0 free throw percentage over Syracuse's 63.9.
4 Gonzaga vs. 5 Illinois
I may have been able to talk myself into the Illini's getting past the Hilltoppers, but the Zags in Portland is a little different. Gonzaga may struggle in this low scoring game, but it's not like Illinois is a world beater in games of the low-scoring variety with a 38-33 loss to Penn State on the record this season. Illinois' lack of depth will matter against the talent that the Zags march out there. Illinois' 5-5 road record could spell trouble too because this game will feel like a road test. I like the Zags getting out of the Portland pod.
SWEET 16
1 North Carolina vs. 4 Gonzaga
Gonzaga definitely has the talent to contend with North Carolina. The question is whether they have the ability to pull this one out if it comes down to the wire. I think we can all agree that UNC will not be blown out in any game and do you really see Pargo finally coming through down the stretch with UNC's talented players locking down when it counts? I don't. I think this is a close game that those with the Tar Heels going all the way will sweat out. But at the end of the day, the Tar Heels will sweat this one out too.
2 Oklahoma vs. 6 Arizona State
Arizona State will not be able to stop Blake Griffin. Their zone will focus on him and Oklahoma has a couple of perimeter shooters that can open up the floor. It will be a pick your poison day for Arizona State and it's just a matter of time before Griffin takes this game over. I don't see him in foul trouble in this one either if you were hoping for that with Pendergraph the only big to contend with. Arizona State and Harden go down in a tough one to Oklahoma.
ELITE 8
1 North Carolina vs. 2 Oklahoma
Griffin against Hansbrough inside is an intriguing matchup, but while that's intriguing, the Sooner's lack of an answer for Ty Lawson is not. Warren may be coming on of late, but he's by no means going to be able to stick with the biggest game changer in this bracket. UNC has depth and the ability to rebound, something that Oklahoma lacks with nobody outside of Griffin contributing on the boards. If Griffin for whatever reason gets into foul trouble, this one could be over early. Finally, when Oklahoma is in a high-scoring game, they tend to struggle. I don't see any way to avoid that against the Tar Heels. North Carolina has an easier time in this one than it had in the previous round against Gonzaga.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA
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