It's that time of year again for all of you March Madness nerds like me.  It's a little less exciting this year for me with UCLA's having zero chance at a Final Four and an outside shot at the Sweet 16.  I was also a little upset this morning because I usually look forward to the L.A. Times' Tourney pullout section.  There wasn't one this year and the coverage that was there on the individual regions was not up to the Times' usually high standards.  Not to be nitpicky, but when you're hoping for a Marquette/Missouri second-round matchup, citing Dominic James' play as a reason is not good form when James broke his foot last month on national television against UConn and is out for the season.

Enough of the hatorade and on to the rules for filling out your bracket. 

1.  Don't pick a #16, 15, or 14 seed.  Yes, I know that Hampton, Coppin St., Weber St., Bucknell, Northwestern State and some others have pulled the miracle upsets that would undermine Rule #1, but what are the odds of your, first, correctly picking an upset with this high a seed and second, that the upset makes any difference whatsoever in your making money.  Compare that with the odds of your incorrectly picking a 14, 15, or 16.  Go with the chalk in all of these games.  Kansas is the #3 seed favored by the least amount of points in the first round and they're still a 10-point favorite.  If you really think a team like Kansas is going to lose in the first round, then have the West Virginia/Dayton winner upsetting them in the second round.  You can still root for that upset of Kansas because your West Virginia/Dayton winner will get the easier road having to go through North Dakota State instead.  Do yourself a service and guarantee yourself a worst-case scenario in these games of 11-1.

2.  Pay attention to where the game is played.  For instance, I could probably talk myself into UCLA's beating Villanova, but the game is in Philadelphia.  Guess where Villanova is located.  Do you think it's a coincidence that Syracuse always has good Big East Tournaments when the games are located in New York?  Having your fans at games matters, as does the lack of travel.  That's why UCLA was always happier as a #2 seed in the West as opposed to a #1 seed in the South or East in recent Final Four runs.

3.  Coaching matters.  There's a reason that a team like Wisconsin is a 12-seed but only 30 to 1 to get to the Final Four and it's not a star-studded lineup.  Bo Ryan is a great coach.  So don't go talking yourself into USC's beating Michigan State just yet.  Make sure you're comfortable picking against a coach like Tom Izzo who has enjoyed much March success in his career.

4.  When you're looking at individual matchups, take a look at who has the best player on the court.  If it's a toss-up, that's one thing, but if one team has a proven clutch player who can take over a game, that's the kind of edge that matters in March.  Syracuse won a championship riding Carmelo Anthony.  Yes, there are teams like Kansas and Memphis that have great balance and go far, but in the early rounds, I'll go with a hot DeMar DeRozan and take my chances.

5.  Do NOT pick a team that can't score.  UConn and Memphis bucked the trend of bad free-throw shooting teams' having trouble advancing in the last five years.  But I have yet to see a team that routinely scores in the 60's going all the way.

I have more rules, but those are the biggies.  On to the picks for the Midwest Regional. 

Coach You Don't Want to Face

Rick Pitino has the credentials and he's taken his slow starting team and propelled it to the overall #1 seed.  But aside from that, just watch how Louisville performs out of timeouts and in the second half, especially of late.  Louisville has been annihilating teams in second halves.  He's got his players playing to the best of their abilities right now.

Player to Watch

Jeff Teague (Wake Forest - Sophomore Point Guard) is the kind of point guard that the NBA will jump all over.  He can drain the three if you sag off of him but if you try and pressure the ball when he has it, he's going right by you CP3 style, which is kind of fitting since both are from Wake.  ESPN has Teague at #7 behind his teammate, Al-Farouq Aminu, and I believe whichever team scores the Wake PG will be very happy with its selection.

Mid-Level Team You Don't Want to Face

West Virginia.  Huggie-Bear's kids lost a tight one to Syracuse on a "neutral" floor in the Big East Tournament but have been coming on strong as of late.  If you're looking for a team with a star to guide it to the Elite 8 or further, West Virginia fits the mold with Da'Sean Butler.  He easily could have been this region's player to watch.  I see West Virginia going further than most people do.

Upset Special

Arizona over Utah.  Even though this isn't a true upset in Vegas, everybody was whining about Arizona's inclusion in the Big Dance.  Well, Arizona was listening and will take the bad press very personally.  They have some real talent on the team and could be poised for a Sweet 16 run.

FIRST ROUND

Automatic advances per the rules above:  1 Louisville, 2 Michigan State, 3 Kansas.

4 Wake Forest vs. 13 Cleveland State

Wake Forest has the far superior talent.  It's as simple as that.  I watched Cleveland State upset Butler at Butler in the conference's championship game and wanted to pick them in this game because they are battle tested, but Wake is just too good.  You have Teague, and then Aminu and Johnson are beasts inside.  They're young and can turn the ball over, but they can run with anyone and they rebound the ball as well as any team out there.  Cleveland State as I mentioned is no slouch and they have a great name on their team in J'Nathan Bullock, but I just don't see it happening.  They may be a great shooting team and they mix things up a la Tim Floyd and USC but I see Wake dominating inside where Cleveland State looks to go to set up their offense.  Wake ekes this one out.

5 Utah vs. 12 Arizona

First, even though Utah is the 5-seed, Vegas has Arizona as a 1-point favorite.  So if you're looking for a 12-seed to pull off the mandatory 5-12 upset, Arizona may be your squad.  As to Utah, they did beat BYU this season, but they also lost early on to Southwest Baptist at home.  Yes, that's Division II Southwest Baptist.  Utah is an efficient team shooting from the field and the foul line, but they are also prone to turnovers when the pressure is up.  Arizona on the other hand has some NBA talent in Budinger and Hill.  This may have been a down year for the Pac-10, but Arizona still has some marquee wins in UCLA, Washington, Kansas, and Gonzaga.  I know that all of those games were at home and Arizona is traveling to Miami to play this game, but it's not like Salt Lake City and Miami are next door neighbors either.  I like Arizona here.

6 West Virginia vs. 11 Dayton

West Virginia more than held its own in the famously tough Big East.  They don't turn the ball over too often as a 1.27 Assist to Turnover margin shows, which says a lot for a team that plays a lot of freshmen.  Dayton likes to pressure the ball and lives off of forcing turnovers.  I don't see it happening against the Mountaineers which boasts a Top 25 in turnover margin as well.  Dayton was great at home but average at best going 5-6 on the road.  Expect West Virginia to win this one with more ease than some are predicting.

7 Boston College vs. 10 USC

USC comes into this tournament on fire after winning the Pac-10 Tournament.  They were a 6-seed in the Pac-10 and pulled off upset after upset to reach the NCAA Tourney.  Both of these teams, however, are Jekyll and Hyde teams, maybe best illustrated by Boston College's beating North Carolina one game and losing to Harvard the next.  Tyrese Rice will be the leader on the court that USC has to contend with but I see Tim Floyd going with some gimmick defenses like his box and one or triangle and two to mess up Skinner's plans for BC.  I think USC rolls on as much as that pains me.

8 Ohio State vs. 9 Siena

The Committee didn't do Siena any favors having the Saints play Ohio State in Dayton and awarding them with Louisville in the second round should they get there.  Ohio State has come on of late led by some great play out of Evan Turner, but Siena has been a consistently solid team all year, winning its conference's regular season title and conference tournament.  Both teams like to press but I like Ohio State's offensive and defensive effiencies as the decider here in Dayton.  Siena struggles when teams break the press and can slow it down.  That's just what Ohio State will do with the 2-2-1 zone press and 2-3 zone defense.  Siena was a team that I wanted to have in the Sweet 16 before the bracket came out but I just don't think it's in the cards.  Like the Saints' games against teams like Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Tennessee, I think Siena makes a good game of it, but comes up short in the end.

SECOND ROUND

1 Louisville vs. 8 Ohio State

Even though this game is in Dayton, Louisville will have plenty of support.  While Ohio State will be able to contend with Siena's pressure, Louisville's press is a whole other animal.  Ohio State will keep this game tight for most of the first half, but Louisville will weigh Evan Turner and the rest of the Buckeyes down come second half as the Cardinals have done with most of their opposition.  Louisville gets a double digit win in this one.

2 Michigan State vs. 10 USC

If for whatever reason Tom Izzo is an RW reader, he should be justifiably offended by his not even being mentioned in my Coach You Don't Want to Face section for this region.  Izzo always has a great rebounding team that won't shoot itself in the foot.  USC on the other hand goes to sleep at times and can shoot itself in the foot.  I see USC getting frustrated by Michigan State's slow it down offense that sets a ton of screens.  USC loses to the Spartans in a low-scoring game.  The Trojans just don't have the depth to eke past the Spartans.

3 Kansas vs. 6 West Virginia

I owe Bill Self an apology.  I never thought he was that great of a coach but his performances last year and maybe more so this year have proven me wrong.  He lost his championship team to the draft and still went out and won the Big XII regular season title.  The Jayhawks are led by tough Chicagoan, Sherron Collins, and have what it takes to win the close ones.  But so does West Virginia.  Kansas can go to sleep on defense and when you're a team that needs to rebound and push, that can be problematic, especially against a team like West Virginia that has real talent in Butler and Ruoff.  I like West Virginia in a mild upset.

4 Wake Forest vs. 12 Arizona

I do not like this matchup for Arizona.  These are two up and down teams that rely on talent and athleticism to overcome their shortcomings.  In that kind of duel, I'll take the team with the bigger guns.  Budinger and Hill may be nice, but Teague, Aminu, and Johnson are all projected Top-20 picks in the NBA Draft next season.  Give me the Demon Deacons in this one.

SWEET 16

1 Louisville vs. 4 Wake Forest

Wake Forest would need to play a 40-minute game to get past Louisville in Indianapolis.  Unfortunately, Wake has a tendency to fall asleep defensively.  Louisville has made a habit of going on 8-0 or 12-2 runs to expose teams' willingness to take a few plays off.  Wake has a few too many lapses and Louisville marches on.

2 Michigan State vs. 6 West Virginia

This is a tough matchup to call.  West Virginia, despite being slightly unknown to some, has a good recent run in the Tournament with a couple of Sweet 16's and an Elite 8.  Both of these teams pride themselves on clamping down on defense and taking care of the ball.  West Virginia, however, tends to struggle in low-scoring games, and that's exactly what you're signing up for against Michigan State.  I'm not overly confident in this pick, but I'll go with Izzo's crew in this one, despite the youth.  I like how Michigan State has played now that the Spartans have gotten healthy.

ELITE 8

1 Louisville vs. 2 Michigan State

In this chalky matchup I'm going to go with just that, some more chalk.  While Michigan State can eke past West Virginia making some mistakes, the Spartans won't be able to get past Louisville if they get caught up in the hoopla of a Final Four possibility in nearby Detroit.  They rely on some young players and I think Louisville forces Michigan State's youth to show in a Big East type battle.  The Big Ten is really like the Big East with less athleticism.

THE PICK:  LOUISVILLE