Super Bowl 43 Preview
Before we get into the game, I'm trying to start the trend of eliminating the Roman Numerals from Super Bowls. D.J. Gallo hinted at this on ESPN earlier in the week and I concur. It was cool with small numbers and XLIII may be fine, but what happens when I'm 72-years old and I'm watching Super Bowl LXXXVIII? So let's start doing away with them now before you need an abacus to figure out what game you're watching.
This is the hardest Super Bowl I've ever had to pick. Prior to last year, my Dad and I had nailed the previous four Super Bowls and the over/unders to boot. Going into last year I was supremely confident in my Patriots and the over pick. Granted I was completely wrong with my pick last year, but at least I was confident. Even though I hit last week's picks, I have zero confidence going into the Super Bowl this year. Maybe it's the haunting memory of my 1-3 Divisional round weekend. Maybe it's that I have about a 0% chance of hitting the team and point total with what I chose. I don't know. Probably a combination of the two.
All of those excuses aside, here's my breakdown.
First, Pittsburgh has the decided advantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Arizona's offensive line is inconsistent at best and if Philadelphia can run on you, there's a good chance that a team that commits to the run like Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball too. It's never a good sign if you're not going to be able to run or stop the run.
Second, Arizona's secondary is susceptible to the deep ball. They have Adrian Wilson crowding the line a lot because he's a good run-stuffing safety and that results in a lot of man coverage. Unfortunately, the Arizona secondary has a tendency to give up big plays. Pittsburgh will likely be able to take advantage once or twice for some big plays off of some play-action after establishing the run.
Third, Philadelphia showed that while Arizona's running game is lacking due to its offensive line troubles, Arizona's passing game can also be humbled by effective pressure. We know that Dick LeBeau will use his two weeks wisely and the creator of the zone blitz will have some new schemes to get to Kurt Warner. If Kurt Warner commits turnovers, this game could be over early, and between his historical fumble problems and that stinker against the Jets earlier this year where he did his best Jake Delhomme impression, it is not inconceivable that Warner could donate some balls to the Pittsburgh defense.
I see all of the above as the objective view of Super Bowl 43. Any other year I'd turn the above into a couple of thousand words, arrogantly question anyone who doesn't take Pittsburgh and the under and spit out a guess at the final score of something like:
Pittsburgh 31
Arizona 10
But this isn't any other year. This is a year where my main reason for picking a team in the NFC Championship was, and I quote, "I've gone against Arizona in the last two games and within 5 minutes of the start of both of those games I had that 'uh oh' feeling. You know, the one that says, 'I'm in for a long day, I don't ever want to bet against this team again.' So, I'm not betting against this team again." I know I gave some rationale for picking Arizona after that, but that was more window dressing. My main reason was basically the fear of betting on Philly and having that first half occur exactly the way it did. And then it happened and I was lucky enough to be on the right side.
What stuck out to me most in coming to my final decision (aside from my not wanting to bet against Arizona's offense) was re-thinking what happened in the AFC Championship. I didn't think Baltimore had a prayer unless they scored a defensive TD and came up with another turnover as well because their offense was so inept. I figured if Pittsburgh got up by more than 10 points that the game was over. But Pittsburgh let Baltimore back into the game. Baltimore had the ball with a chance to take the lead late in the fourth quarter. Baltimore, led by Joe Flacco, Le'Ron McLain, and Derrick Mason, erased a double-digit lead in Pittsburgh. People aren't talking about that blown lead but that can't sit well with you if you're a Pittsburgh backer. If Baltimore can erase a big fourth quarter lead against the Steelers, then I know Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston & Co. will not be out of the game, even if they do go down early.
Pittsburgh will drink its own Kool-Aid. They're hearing the talk about their running game and Arizona's inability to stop it and I'm sure they'll get overconfident if they stop Arizona's offense early. But Arizona is not a team that you can get complacent against. Tomlin is letting his guys go out at night and enjoy the Super Bowl "experience." That's fine with me before the game, but I think they'll get caught up in the moment once the game starts too. I don't like the idea of Pittsburgh taking it easy and being comfortable with punting once they get a lead. The Super Bowl isn't the place to get defensive minded when it comes to your offense, if that makes any sense. I also think Pittsburgh is getting too much credit for their run in the AFC playoffs. They beat an overrated San Diego team, albeit handily. Then they eked by Baltimore, whose offense as I've said before is inept at best, and whose defense was battered and a step slower than in the past. What would have happened if they had had to play a healthy Tennessee team again? Is Pittsburgh's offensive line going to be in form? Arizona's defensive line has looked good in the playoffs. Pittsburgh plays on a sloppy field in cold weather. How much will the 67 degree sunny temperature be to Arizona's benefit?
Finally, I like Arizona to have the better game planning. I'm not talking about the former Pittsburgh coaches aspect. I'm talking about how Whisenhunt, Galey, and Grimm have had the Cardinals come out in every game in the playoffs. The Cardinals have been clearly more prepared than every team they've played. They looked smarter and always had those one or two big plays for touchdowns that you know came out of picking opponents apart on film. How do you factor that kind of thing into a Super Bowl Preview? I don't know. How do you talk objectively about the hunch that Arizona will have some trick plays or new schemes to make up for their other deficiencies? I don't know that either.
I could have talked about Larry Fitzgerald requiring a double team because Ike Taylor can't guard him and how that will open up Boldin and Breaston. I could have talked about Warner's ability to get rid of the ball with accuracy against the blitz. I could have talked about Arizona's vast improvements in the running game and defensive line play in the playoffs. I could have even talked about Pittsburgh's punter's woes. But then you would have dismissed all of that because of the rationale up top, talked yourself into Pittsburgh 31, Arizona 10, and you would have been right to do so. So instead, my prediction rests upon my hunch that Whisenhunt and his staff will have the ultimate game plan and Tomlin's guys will be too relaxed and overconfident to avoid a second half meltdown. So there you have it. The Rudin Weekly hunch game. If it comes to fruition, we're coining that. If not, I'll be expecting a lot of mocking emails.
Arizona 24
Pittsburgh 20
This is the hardest Super Bowl I've ever had to pick. Prior to last year, my Dad and I had nailed the previous four Super Bowls and the over/unders to boot. Going into last year I was supremely confident in my Patriots and the over pick. Granted I was completely wrong with my pick last year, but at least I was confident. Even though I hit last week's picks, I have zero confidence going into the Super Bowl this year. Maybe it's the haunting memory of my 1-3 Divisional round weekend. Maybe it's that I have about a 0% chance of hitting the team and point total with what I chose. I don't know. Probably a combination of the two.
All of those excuses aside, here's my breakdown.
First, Pittsburgh has the decided advantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Arizona's offensive line is inconsistent at best and if Philadelphia can run on you, there's a good chance that a team that commits to the run like Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball too. It's never a good sign if you're not going to be able to run or stop the run.
Second, Arizona's secondary is susceptible to the deep ball. They have Adrian Wilson crowding the line a lot because he's a good run-stuffing safety and that results in a lot of man coverage. Unfortunately, the Arizona secondary has a tendency to give up big plays. Pittsburgh will likely be able to take advantage once or twice for some big plays off of some play-action after establishing the run.
Third, Philadelphia showed that while Arizona's running game is lacking due to its offensive line troubles, Arizona's passing game can also be humbled by effective pressure. We know that Dick LeBeau will use his two weeks wisely and the creator of the zone blitz will have some new schemes to get to Kurt Warner. If Kurt Warner commits turnovers, this game could be over early, and between his historical fumble problems and that stinker against the Jets earlier this year where he did his best Jake Delhomme impression, it is not inconceivable that Warner could donate some balls to the Pittsburgh defense.
I see all of the above as the objective view of Super Bowl 43. Any other year I'd turn the above into a couple of thousand words, arrogantly question anyone who doesn't take Pittsburgh and the under and spit out a guess at the final score of something like:
Pittsburgh 31
Arizona 10
But this isn't any other year. This is a year where my main reason for picking a team in the NFC Championship was, and I quote, "I've gone against Arizona in the last two games and within 5 minutes of the start of both of those games I had that 'uh oh' feeling. You know, the one that says, 'I'm in for a long day, I don't ever want to bet against this team again.' So, I'm not betting against this team again." I know I gave some rationale for picking Arizona after that, but that was more window dressing. My main reason was basically the fear of betting on Philly and having that first half occur exactly the way it did. And then it happened and I was lucky enough to be on the right side.
What stuck out to me most in coming to my final decision (aside from my not wanting to bet against Arizona's offense) was re-thinking what happened in the AFC Championship. I didn't think Baltimore had a prayer unless they scored a defensive TD and came up with another turnover as well because their offense was so inept. I figured if Pittsburgh got up by more than 10 points that the game was over. But Pittsburgh let Baltimore back into the game. Baltimore had the ball with a chance to take the lead late in the fourth quarter. Baltimore, led by Joe Flacco, Le'Ron McLain, and Derrick Mason, erased a double-digit lead in Pittsburgh. People aren't talking about that blown lead but that can't sit well with you if you're a Pittsburgh backer. If Baltimore can erase a big fourth quarter lead against the Steelers, then I know Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston & Co. will not be out of the game, even if they do go down early.
Pittsburgh will drink its own Kool-Aid. They're hearing the talk about their running game and Arizona's inability to stop it and I'm sure they'll get overconfident if they stop Arizona's offense early. But Arizona is not a team that you can get complacent against. Tomlin is letting his guys go out at night and enjoy the Super Bowl "experience." That's fine with me before the game, but I think they'll get caught up in the moment once the game starts too. I don't like the idea of Pittsburgh taking it easy and being comfortable with punting once they get a lead. The Super Bowl isn't the place to get defensive minded when it comes to your offense, if that makes any sense. I also think Pittsburgh is getting too much credit for their run in the AFC playoffs. They beat an overrated San Diego team, albeit handily. Then they eked by Baltimore, whose offense as I've said before is inept at best, and whose defense was battered and a step slower than in the past. What would have happened if they had had to play a healthy Tennessee team again? Is Pittsburgh's offensive line going to be in form? Arizona's defensive line has looked good in the playoffs. Pittsburgh plays on a sloppy field in cold weather. How much will the 67 degree sunny temperature be to Arizona's benefit?
Finally, I like Arizona to have the better game planning. I'm not talking about the former Pittsburgh coaches aspect. I'm talking about how Whisenhunt, Galey, and Grimm have had the Cardinals come out in every game in the playoffs. The Cardinals have been clearly more prepared than every team they've played. They looked smarter and always had those one or two big plays for touchdowns that you know came out of picking opponents apart on film. How do you factor that kind of thing into a Super Bowl Preview? I don't know. How do you talk objectively about the hunch that Arizona will have some trick plays or new schemes to make up for their other deficiencies? I don't know that either.
I could have talked about Larry Fitzgerald requiring a double team because Ike Taylor can't guard him and how that will open up Boldin and Breaston. I could have talked about Warner's ability to get rid of the ball with accuracy against the blitz. I could have talked about Arizona's vast improvements in the running game and defensive line play in the playoffs. I could have even talked about Pittsburgh's punter's woes. But then you would have dismissed all of that because of the rationale up top, talked yourself into Pittsburgh 31, Arizona 10, and you would have been right to do so. So instead, my prediction rests upon my hunch that Whisenhunt and his staff will have the ultimate game plan and Tomlin's guys will be too relaxed and overconfident to avoid a second half meltdown. So there you have it. The Rudin Weekly hunch game. If it comes to fruition, we're coining that. If not, I'll be expecting a lot of mocking emails.
Arizona 24
Pittsburgh 20
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