You should know that I have zero confidence in my picking ability coming into this week.  Let me give you a story to illustrate.  Last night I took the under in the Suns/Nuggets game at 218.5.  Under Terry Porter, the Suns have been going to more and more halfcourt sets, especially in second halves and even more so in fourth quarters.  They still like to get out and break, but nowhere near as much as was the case under D'Antoni.  The lines haven't reflected this as much because people see Steve Nash and Amare out there and figure it's the same old Suns.  So when I got home from dinner at halftime and saw that 118 points had already been scored I wasn't even remotely deterred.  I almost took the second half under but was too lazy and figured that I'd be entertained enough with the game on TNT.  As the third quarter ended and the fourth quarter began, things were looking great.  But then a funny thing happened.  Around the 9-minute mark, I started doing calculations in my head to figure out how many points per minute I needed to avoid to win the bet.  That's not the abnormal part.  The abnormal part is that I did the math assuming the game would head to overtime.  An asinine thing to do with 9 minutes left but let's just say I was not remotely surprised when J.R. Smith got a lucky second opportunity at a 3 and nailed it with a minute left to tie things at 103.  Then, the Suns managed to grab a loose ball and secure the final shot attempt of regulation.  Clearly I needed the game to end in regulation at this point.  So Grant Hill got isolated with Dahntay Jones guarding him at the top of the key.  Hill crossed him up and with 3 seconds left Jones tripped Hill from behind.  Hill still managed to go up with the ball and was hammered by Nene across both arms.  Two free throws, right?  Wrong.  No call.  And here's the thing.  I didn't even react.  I already knew it was coming.  It was just a matter of how the game would go to OT.  You think I'm making this up?  Watch the Hill drive and tell me that the officials don't owe me money and the Suns a win:  (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-zxhgxfSyg).  What's that?  Bad angle?  Well, this is the only one up on youtube because NBA.com didn't even show the play in their highlight!  That's how bad of a non call it was.  How bad would a non call have to be to not show a last second drive to try and win a game?  Well, it was that bad.  And there is my confidence level for you in the form of a little story.  Moving on.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Here's how great my picking ability has been.  From Diana in Baltimore, again, "Wrong again but dont pick the ravens because everytime you dont they win."  Well Diana, your wish is my command.  Every time I look at this game I see no way that the Ravens win this game.  Do you remember how anemic the Ravens offense was last week against Tennessee?  Pittsburgh's defense is even better.  And Pittsburgh with Willy Parker healthy is like Tennessee with Chris Johnson only better.  Parker will open up things for Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Santonio Holmes, and Nate Washington to make plays.  Baltimore's defense is good, but Suggs will be 50% at best and Samari Rolle isn't playing.  Baltimore plays man coverage on the outside.  Without their cover corner, it could be a long day for the Baltimore secondary, even with Ed "All World" Reed.  Baltimore's defense has slowed in recent years with the same cast of characters as Chris Johnson's first half showed.  The defense is still better than good, if not great, but not anywhere near the Super Bowl Ravens of years past.  Statistically, and in the two meetings, Pittsburgh's defense has been slightly better this season.  Offensively, do you really want to start making the argument of Falco, I mean Flacco, Le'Ron (I love that name), and Derrick Mason going up against one of the best defenses of this decade?  I don't.  What happens if Baltimore goes down by two touchdowns?  I'm not saying it will happen, but Baltimore has zero chance of winning this game if they go down big early.  Pittsburgh on the other hand can come back.  I see Pittsburgh winning the field position battle early with Baltimore's willingness to punt to avoid passing the ball and then building a lead that Baltimore will not be able to surpass.  It's going to be a long day for the Ravens' faithful and if you are not yet convinced, the game's in Pittsburgh.  That stadium will be going nuts.

Pittsburgh 24
Baltimore 13

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

As if I wasn't feeling badly enough about my picks, I read Bill Simmons' article this morning.  That guy is the anti-playoff picker.  If you thought my 1-3 Divisional weekend was bad, check out his 0-4.  Why do I bring this up?  Because I'm going with the same teams as Mr. Simmons.  Not a good sign.  I think my Baltimore and Philly readers will be very happy with me.  This one was a lot harder though.  Philly was my preseason sleeper.  I should be like guys on TV and never waiver despite what my eyes are telling me when I watch the games.  But I just don't see Philly pulling this one out.  I've gone against Arizona in the last two games and within 5 minutes of the start of both of those games I had that "uh oh" feeling.  You know, the one that says, "I'm in for a long day, I don't ever want to bet against this team again."  So, I'm not betting against this team again.  Their defense is stopping the run, and even if they weren't, Philly doesn't run the ball.  Their pass rush has been stellar and they have executed the bend but don't break to perfection in games that have mattered.  No, I'm not ignoring the 28-point loss to Philly earlier this season.  Arizona was on the road, coming off of a big win, going on short rest across the country, and pretty much assured of their division title.  I think Arizona has proven that it plays a bit differently in games that matter versus games that don't.  Yes, Kurt Warner can throw picks at the worst possible times or he can drop the ball because of some random thumb injury.  But I'm telling you.  You do not want to bet against this team.  The first time Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin is the intended receiver you'll know what I'm talking about.  Sorry, but in a shootout, DeSean Jackson and Reggie Brown aren't whetting my appetite as much.  If Brian Westbrook doesn't go off, and he won't because he's hobbled for a change, I just don't think Donovan can do enough to win this game.  Arizona will scheme and throw things like that fake bubble screen from last week at Philly's blitzes and Philly will come up short and have to settle for one or two too many field goals to pull out a close, high scoring game. 

Arizona 31
Philadelphia 30

So there you have it.  I have Pittsburgh and Arizona.  Feel free to go against me and then rub it in my face when I cry about some horrific delay of game call that costs me a game, not that that would ever happen.  I'm clearly over that Tennessee game.

Clearly.

Seriously, how long was that play clock at 0 for?  1.5 seconds?  2 seconds?  Unbelievable!  I don't care about all of those turnovers in the red zone.  I don't care about the fact that Tennessee wins by 2 TD's if Johnson's healthy.  It was at 0!  Everyone saw it!  I had the Titans at 16-1 to win it all from Week 4!  How do they miss that call?  It was at ZERO!

Ok, I'm done now.  Sorry about that.  Enjoy the games.