Quick Note:  I went 9-6-1 last week to finish the season 125-122-9.  Thank you to the Rams for giving me a winning season.

This wildcard round has all four road teams as Vegas favorites.  I'm going out on a limb and saying that that hasn't happened before.  And you know what, I don't have a problem with any of these spreads.  I was really hoping that at least Arizona would be favored, but Vegas isn't even trying to sucker us into the high flying Kurt Warners.  I hate Vegas.  I picture a bunch of Ace Rothsteins (De Niro in Casino) sitting around a room laughing every time they come up with a spread that messes with my head.

WILDCARD ROUND

Philadelphia at Minnesota

For some reason, I'm not overly ecstatic here.  I'm not sure why.  Philly's great against the run and should be able to contain AP, and even if they can't, he'll fumble at least once.  Minnesota's strength is stopping the run.  Philly doesn't do that.  Minnesota is sticking with Tarvaris.  Donovan has thrown only one pick since the Baltimore game.  Ok, I'm feeling better now.  Tarvaris is the QB for Minnesota.  Ok, we're back to being ecstatic. 

Philadelphia 27
Minnesota 17

Atlanta at Arizona

Arizona rushes for just under 74 yards/game and allows just over 110 yards/game.  That's not a good recipe for playoff football.  What's worse, Arizona's less effective at stopping the pass than they are at stopping the run.  The only way Arizona wins this game is in a shootout and even then, they have to avoid turning the ball over.  Atlanta's not going to make big mistakes.  They will control the clock.  Kurt Warner will have a fumble or untimely pick and Atlanta will win this game.  Don't forget, they're my playoff sleeper, or do I have to stick with Philly because they were my sleeper before the season started?  I'm confused.

Atlanta 31
Arizona 21

Indianapolis at San Diego

I kind of want to hear more of the talking heads pick this game.  I have a feeling that everybody is going with Indy here and I was all set to do the same.  But then that spread opened at a pick'em and jumped to Indy by a point as soon as everyone with a pulse started riding the Colts.  Here's what bothers me even more.  Indy was at home last year against San Diego for the playoff game.  Indy was in the RCA dome, which was the biggest home field advantage east of Seattle.  And then, somehow, Tony Dungy got outcoached by Norv Turner.  It was one of the most inexplicable outcomes I've seen.  Now fast forward to this year.  Everybody is on the Colts' bandwagon again.  San Diego is clearly weaker than last year when they had a healthy Merriman and a LaDainian that wasn't among the living dead, but Sproles makes up for some of LaDainian's shortcomings and Rivers (I hate him) has been putting up great numbers all season.  I may regret this, but I think Sproles makes a couple of big plays.  I think Gates gets open.  I don't think Peyton Manning will be able to do enough to overcome a nonexistent running game and I'm not sold that Bob Sanders is 100%.  San Diego takes this one at home.

San Diego 24
Indianapolis 20

Baltimore at Miami

This is a tough game to call too.  Both teams do enough to win the big games and neither team seems to ever make a killer mistake with both in the top 3 in the AFC in turnover margin.  It's weird that those two comments are about a team with a rookie QB and coach and another team with a rookie coach and a QB that I lovingly refer to as "Noodle Arm."  With all of that on the table, I'm going with Miami for a couple of reasons that probably don't pass the smell test.  First, Miami will pull something out of its hat for a big play or two and that's the kind of thing that swings a close, defensive game.  And second, Miami has the more accurate kicker, especially from over 40 yards this year.  I wouldn't feel comfortable picking against either of these teams, but I think Miami wins a nailbiter. 

Miami 20
Baltimore 17

CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

Philadelphia at New York

It's not like these teams don't know each other.  Each has won on the other's home field this season.  Philly clearly enters this one as the hotter team.  Philly has the better QB, especially considering the passing defenses that each will face in this game.  But this game will likely be in cold weather, and in a cold weather game, I usually like the team that can run the ball and stop the run.  Philly stopped the run in the win against New York, but I'll bet you that the G-Men run the ball more than the 15 times that they did in that game.  The G-Men will be healthy in the right places and I think that they will run the ball well enough to wear the Eagles down and steal this one in the 4th quarter with a sustained drive.

New York 24
Philadelphia 17

Atlanta at Carolina

Road teams don't win in NFC South matchups.  This was the toughest division in the NFL and the road teams just didn't win with any kind of frequency whatsoever.  This matchup was no different.  Atlanta lost at Carolina 24-9 and then won at home 45-28.  The playoff matchup won't go any differently.  Carolina is clicking at the right time and the two-headed running attack in Carolina is every bit as good as the one in Atlanta, if not better as of late.  On top of that, Carolina's been there before with this same cast of characters and has the biggest difference maker in the game, maybe the league, in Steve Smith.  I think Atlanta's miraculous season comes to an end in Carolina.

Carolina 27
Atlanta 13

Miami at Tennessee

Miami will be playing the better version of Baltimore, and it will happen on the road.  Tennessee will be close to or at full strength on defense and will maul Miami.  Miami just doesn't have the weapons to deal with a steam roller in Tennessee and I don't think it will be close.

Tennessee 31
Miami 10

San Diego at Pittsburgh

This is an intriguing matchup, made even moreso with Big Ben's concussion.  I think it's a safe bet that Big Ben will be back for this game.  These teams have similar offenses while Pittsburgh has the best defense in the NFL and San Diego is ranked #25.  San Diego will be traveling across the country to miserable Pittsburgh and that's how this game will go for San Diego, miserably.  Pittsburgh wins in Pittsburgh style.

Pittsburgh 27
San Diego 6

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

Carolina at New York

It may be a little self-serving to root for the best possible matchup, but I think we're likely to see it, especially in the NFC.  The Sunday Night matchup a couple of weeks back didn't give a clear cut favorite.  It in fact did just the opposite.  This game will be close and fans of both teams must admit that.  When thinking about this game, two things come to mind.  Which is more likely to happen in the rematch, Steve Smith having a game-changing performance or the Giants having around 200 yards on the ground?   Because, honestly, I think one of those two has to happen for the respective teams to win.  In the original game, the Giants went nuts on the ground and contained Steve Smith.  In the rematch, Carolina will be back to full strength on the defensive line.  Will the Giants be able to run all over the Panthers again?  Maybe.  Will they contain Steve Smith again?  I don't think so.  I think Steve Smith makes a Steve Smith play in the fourth quarter, the kind he's made in about half of the games this year.  I think Carolina pulls off the upset in a shootout.

Carolina 34
New York 31

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

I really wish that LenDale White didn't stomp on that towel with all 350 lbs. of his frame.  That's the kind of thing that can give the opposing team the boost it needs in a tight matchup.  Fortunately for Tennessee, I don't think this is as tight a matchup as it once seemed.  Tennessee showed that its defense can take over this game and that its running game can capitalize when it needs to.  Pittsburgh will be game but they will wear down again late.

Tennessee 28
Pittsburgh 13

SUPER BOWL

Carolina vs. Tennessee

Two teams who came very close to winning the big one in the last decade will meet.  And no Donovan, this one can't end in a tie.  These teams have very different make-ups.  Carolina is the better offensive team, Tennessee with the edge on defense.  Carolina relies on a big play receiver.  Tennessee is about as exciting as an accounting seminar.  They are, however, very evenly matched despite their differences.  Tennessee has won this year by forcing turnovers and not giving the ball up.  They'll do it again in the big game in boring fashion and Jeff Fisher and his week-old beard will finally win the big one.

Tennessee 17
Carolina 13

So there you have it.  For all of you Giants fans, please direct your hate mail to Eric.Rudin@gmail.com.  To everyone else, I'm heading down to the Holiday Bowl, so this is it for the year.  I hope you're enjoying the column and look forward to continuing it next year.  Maybe we'll start with a mailbag since I didn't do one in December.  Yeah, let's do it.  Feel free to email me at the address above.  Happy New Year!  -Eric