Quick note:  This is all written assuming your league gives 4 pts. for a throwing TD, not 6.

Before we get into the guide, just remember, we don't encourage gambling here at RW.  Rule #1 of gambling is:  you lose.  That's why they build more casinos in Vegas and offer you free stuff while you're there.  If anyone tells you that he is up in his gambling lifetime, he's lying.  The three most lied about topics are:  Golf handicaps, gambling winnings, experience with the opposite sex.  If a guy tells you the girl he hooked up with is a 7, she's a 4, or he's just lying about the whole thing altogether. 

Now that we have that out of the way, here are some quick rules for your fantasy draft this season.

1.  If you have a top-6 pick, draft a RB.  No exceptions.  Usually I say this for the whole first round, but with the advent of the running back by committee and the emergence of the "We're not running the ball" offense in New England, I've relaxed the only pick a running back in the first round rule.

2.  Don't draft rookie WR's.  When's the last time one of them lived up to expectations in his rookie season?  If a rookie does emerge, it'll likely be a waiver wire guy you've never heard of until he randomly has 300 yds. and 5 TD's in week 6.

3.  Don't draft Darren McFadden.  First off, I love McFadden.  As a Raiders fan, I'm beyond excited that we got him and I think that he was the #1 pick in the draft.  However, the Raiders do not have a legitimate passing game.  The O-Line is sketchy at best, and it is his rookie season, so he'll be making adjustments as he goes.  That all being said, I still think he's a top-4 round guy in fantasy this year.  The problem is, I've seen mock drafts with McFadden going in the 2nd round.  Too early, don't bite.

4.  After Brady and Manning, there's a large drop off.  Wait on your QB's until later on.  You can do fine with a guy like Jay Cutler and you won't have to waste an early pick.

5.  Similar to the QB position, there's a large drop off after Randy Moss.  Quick, rank these guys in order:  Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens, Andre Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Steve Smith.  What I'm saying is, just make sure you get one of them, and you should be fine.

6.  Don't get excited on the run of Defenses.  Not drafting a defense early never killed anyone.  Same goes for TE this year too.  The elite aren't that far off from the next 5 or 6 guys.

7.  Watch the bye weeks.  Don't have your top QB, RB, and WR sitting on the same day.  You don't want to start the season 0-1.

8.  Draft your kicker last.  If you don't, you're an idiot.  Plain and simple.  Or as Ice Cube would say, simple and plain.

9.  Think of the guys in tiers by position.  For instance, at QB, have Brady and Manning in Tier One, Palmer, Romo and Brees in Tier Two, or with RB, think of LaDainian and Purple Jesus in Tier One then Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook and Joseph Addai in Tier Two, etc.  Then target guys accordingly. 

10.  Keep track of injuries.  Don't draft Willis McGahee late in the second round, start celebrating, and then click on the update next to his name when you're setting your lineup only to find he's out.

Sleepers:

Matt Forte (RB - Chi):  With Cedric Benson rolling around in a gutter somewhere, pondering his next move from the Maurice Clarett playbook, Forte should be the guy.

Jerry Porter (WR - Jax):  Porter should be underrated because he had a collection of duds with no protection trying to find him.  He's a versatile wide-out who should benefit greatly from the upgrade in teams.  Monitor his hammy injury.  He should be ready to go by Week 1.

Sidney Rice (WR - Min):  I touted this guy last year.  I saw him play in person at South Carolina against Florida.  The guy is a beast.  With teams looking to throw their defensive coordinators out there for a 12-man front against Purple Jesus plus the addition of Bernard Berrian, Rice should see nothing but single coverage.  Expect big things.

Busts: 

Derek Anderson (QB - Cle):  His second half of the season left a little to be desired.  He has the most advertised backup in history waiting his turn.  The schedule will be tough and following last season, Anderson will be expected to make this team a contender.  If anything goes wrong, he could be demoted.  Not something you want to have to think about with how early he'll be going.

Bernard Berrian (WR - Min):  Take Sidney Rice instead.  Berrian is a deep threat with a QB who can't throw deep.  Going from Rex Grossman to Tarvaris Jackson is like going from herpes to the clap.  You don't want either, and you're stuck with both for a long while.

Rudi Johnson (RB - Cin):  Don't draft him.  He's not good.

On to the rankings.  Here are my Top-50 guys for this year's fantasy drafts, including a bold prediction for each guy.  Notably missing is Marvin Harrison.  I never thought I'd say this about him, but I'm worried about his status with legal troubles stemming from a shooting.  Maybe Adam Jones touched him and the spirit jumped to Marvin like in that movie Fallen.  That's the only explanation I can come up with.

50 - Lee Evans (WR - Buf)

He rebounded from his gawd-awful first few weeks to have a respectable season.  Edwards should get better at QB and James Hardy should take some of the pressure off of him.  Hardy was a great WR at Indiana.  Evans will be undervalued because of how his first three weeks affected his numbers last season.

Bold Prediction:  1,000 yards.

49 - Laveranues Coles (WR - NYJ) 

You should win your fantasy league if you can spell this guy's name right.  With Brett Favre joining the squad Coles should benefit with more accurate passing and more deep balls his way, even if he did throw a hissy fit when the team dumped Pennington.  He'll get over it.  Expect his TD's to go up.

Bold Prediction:  10 TD's.

48 - Calvin Johnson (WR - Det)

His back should be better and he is an absolute specimen at 6'5'', 235 lbs.  He should get the usual jump that good WR's experience in their second season.  With Martz gone the Lions will throw less.  But Jon Kitna should be praying for him, so that's always good.  You'll be happy if you draft Johnson because you won't have to reach too high.

Bold Prediction:  Over 1,000 yds.

47 - Drew Brees (QB - NO)

Birthmark power should be raining TD's all over the Superdome this season.  Whatever shortcomings he has (no pun intended) are covered up with how much the Saints throw the ball.  He's in his prime and you can count on him for at least 25 TD's.

Bold prediction:  Over 4,000 yds. for the third straight season.

46 - Edgerrin James (RB - Ari)

He has great vision and finds holes whenever possible, but his workload is catching up with him.  He'll still get 300 carries this year, but last year's stats are probably a good barometer for this year as well.

Bold Prediction:  1,100 yards.

45 - Earnest Graham (RB - Tam. Bay)

Warrick Dunn will not be stealing Graham's goal line carries.  Don't expect 1,000 yds., but double digit TD's again this season are not out of the realm of possibility. 

Bold Prediction:  10 TD's.

44 - Antonio Gates (TE - SD)

It's still possible that Gates could sit the first 6 weeks on the PUP list, so beware.  However, he's still Antonio Gates and I don't see the Chargers doing that.  You're probably better off not taking him because you'll have to reach early per usual, but that foot surgery may scare people away.  He should still be the first TE taken.

Bold Prediction:  10 TD's.

43 - Darren McFadden (RB - Oak)

If you can somehow wait until the 43rd pick to snag McFadden then you'll be happy.  If you take him at 20th where a lot of people are reaching, you'll be upset.  He's splitting carries and while some are predicting something mildly comparable to Adrian Peterson numbers, he's not running behind Minnesota's O-line.

Bold Prediction:  5 yds./carry, but only 6 TD's.

42 - Wes Welker (WR - NE)

Talk about benefiting from a system.  On any other team, namely Miami, he'd still be that little random white receiver.  Now he's the annoying receiver for opposing fans who seems like he can catch 10 balls a game.  Last year's numbers are expecting a bit much, but close to it is more likely.

Bold Prediction:  100 receptions.

41 - Tony Romo (QB - Dal)

Romo goes deep, a lot.  With Terrell Owens shedding tears for him, not even Dubya taking a shot at his relationship with Jessica Simpson should slow him down.  Last year's numbers may be expecting a bit much, but Romo will still be a Top-5 QB. 

Bold Prediction:  30 TD's, 1 breakup.

40 - LenDale White (RB - Ten)

Tennessee runs the ball a lot, so don't worry too much about a lack of carries.  You know what you're getting with White.  He's not making anybody miss, but he's pretty money in short yardage situations.  He's a workhorse who should produce something similar to his output last year.

Bold Prediction:  1,100 yards.

39 - Carson Palmer (QB - Cin)

Without a running game you can still expect some woes from the Cincinnati passing game.  It shouldn't be as bad as Carson's December was, and Utecht should help, but Palmer's numbers will probably come in games where the defense just doesn't show and he's forced into 40 passes.  You won't be disappointed if you draft Palmer but it may be a shaky road that gets you there.

Bold Prediction:  30 TD's.

38 - Thomas Jones (RB - NYJ)

This could be a nice value pick because of his lack of TD's last year.  The rejuvenated Jets should mean a more productive O-Line and a better season for Jones.  He has zero competition for starter carries and will have a nice season.

Bold Prediction:  1,100 yards.

37 - Michael Turner (RB - Atl)

This guy will probably go earlier than he should because of all of the hype.  He's a good runner with explosive ability.  However, he's playing on the Falcons.  They're not good at football.  They have a new O-Line and QB.  Not good.  He didn't exactly impress when called upon after LaDainian went down last season either.  He'll be fine, but again, don't reach.

Bold Prediction:  1,000 yards, 8 TD's.

36 - Laurence Maroney (RB - NE)

He'll average 4.5 yds/carry but who knows how many times he'll touch the ball.  He should improve on last year's numbers that were low due to an early groin injury, but not that much because he's not used in the passing game.

Bold Prediction:  10 TD's.

35 - Jamal Lewis (RB - Cle)

You'll have to reach early for Lewis after the second half he had last season, but with nobody really backing him up and all of the goal line touches he'll receive in addition to being the primary RB, he may be worth it.  He seems motivated and happy to be playing again reporting to camp ten pounds lighter than last season.

Bold Prediction:  1,200 yards, 10 TD's.

34 - Reggie Bush (RB - NO)

Bush will be splitting carries but that's ok with his large role in the Saints' passing offense.  His knee was a worry, but he seems to be fine after playing on Saturday.  His numbers should improve on last year's provided he stays healthy.

Bold Prediction:  1,400 all-purpose yards.

33 - Roy Williams (WR - Det)

He may be in for a semi-rough season with Martz gone and Calvin Johnson figuring to take some of his touches away.  Plus, he's nuts.  But, this is a contract year so I'm sure you can expect some effort out of him and maybe less antics.

Bold Prediction:  1,000 yards, 8 TD's.

32 - Jonathan Stewart (RB - Car)

He's the feature back.  Don't worry too much about DeAngelo Williams stealing too many carries.  John Fox likes to run the ball and Stewart's size and speed figure to impress.  He did have toe surgery, but they're talking about Stewart returning kicks.  I'm guessing the toe's fine.  Expect a great season out of this former Duck. 

Bold Prediction:  1,000 yards, 10 TD's.

31 - Santonio Holmes (WR - Pit)

First off, what a great name.  I think the Spurs should have to be the Santonio Spurs now.  Holmes is a home run receiver and has the ability to improve on last year's numbers.  Limas Sweed may steal some of his numbers but this is a guy you want on your team.

Bold Prediction:  5 TD's over 40 yards.

30 - Brandon Jacobs (RB - NYG)

He's an injury risk but comes up big when he's on the field.  Plus, he weighs about 400 lbs.  If he can stay on the field you can count on him for at least 10 TD's this season and over 1,000 yards.  However, that's a big if.  Take him with a third round pick and then cross your fingers.  Oh, and feel free to ignore the "open competition" talk.  It's his starting role.

Bold Prediction:  12 games played.

29 - Anquan Boldin (WR - Ari)

Here's another guy who's money when healthy.  But he's not healthy all that often.  You may be able to steal him later than usual because of his low numbers last season, plus Leinart figures to like Boldin more than Warner did. 

Bold Prediction:  1,200 yards.

28 - Torry Holt (WR - StL)

The Rams lose Isaac Bruce which should mean more looks for Torry Holt.  He's getting up there in years but still producing.  Last year's numbers figure to be good for this year too.  He gets open better than anybody in the league and will have another fine season.

Bold Prediction:  1,100 yards, 10 TD's.

27 - Plaxico Burress (WR - NYG)

He's not happy with his contract situation but that shouldn't stop him from utilizing his unreal physical ability.  Don't worry about his ankle either.  He's been day-to-day ever since I can remember. 

Bold Prediction:  15 yds/reception and 10 TD's.

26 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR - Cin)

What gets lost in Chad Johnson's show is how productive T.J. Who's Your Momma is.  With Chris Henry officially gone after breaking the law for the 45th time, T.J. will be able to play like he did in the first half of last season.  He is a safe pick.  His hamstring figures to be fine.

Bold Prediction:  100 receptions, 10 TD's.

25 - Larry Johnson (RB - KC)

I've read about Jason Whitlock being impressed by LJ in the preseason which is saying a lot.  But coming back from a broken foot is something that is going to take more than a good preseason for me to buy into.  Expect something in between his '06 and '07 numbers.

Bold Prediction:  1,200 yards, 12 TD's.

24 - Steve Smith (WR - Car)

If you have enough depth at WR, then you can bump this ranking up a few spots.  I'd probably have him towards the tail end of the Top-20 if not for breaking his teammate Ken Lucas' nose and getting suspended for the first two games.  Smith is still as good as it gets when it comes to the big time play.  Plus, not only can you not talk trash to the guy for fear of a 200-yard game, now he might bust you up too.

Bold Prediction:  1,000 yards, 8 TD's even with 2 less games.

23 - Ronnie Brown (RB - Mia)

Brown was beyond impressive before an ACL injury ended his year last season.  He won't get a workload that his coaches think he can't handle because it's not like anybody expects Miami to do anything this season.  They're not going to want to risk losing their future in the backfield.  However, he'll get his touches and is a fixture in the passing game, despite what people are saying about Ricky "you can count on me" Williams.

Bold Prediction:  1,500 all-purpose yards.

22 - Maurice Jones-Drew (RB - Jax)

You'll have to deal with those couple of games a season where Jones-Drew has 10 carries for 15 yards, but outside of that, he's still a beast, even at 5'7''.  Just ask Shawne Merriman.  You'll have to settle for getting some of your points out of his receiving totals because of Fred Taylor, but MJD is still a good second RB.

Bold Prediction:  13 TD's

21 - Brandon Marshall (WR - Den)

He'll be the number one receiver during what may be Jay Cutler's breakout season.  There isn't a close number two on the Denver squad so Marshall should be getting plenty of looks.  Marshall's not a household name, but he should be and will be after this season.

Bold Prediction:  1,300 yards, 10 TD's.

20 - Marques Colston (WR - NO)

If Colston didn't fall off last season, he surely won't this year.  His injuries are a worry but he still figures to approach the century mark in receptions and double digit TD's.  You're not going to find a guy with much more talent on the field than Colston.  Solid end of the second round guy.

Bold Prediction:  Over 85 yards/game.

19 - Peyton Manning (QB - Ind)

I'm pretty sure you know enough about this guy without reading what I have to say in two sentences about him.  Tony Dungy has said that Manning is on track to start Week 1.  Good enough for me.  Another ho-hum 4,000 yards and low 30's in TD's sounds about right.

Bold Prediction:  15 commercials/Sunday, still Daddy's favorite.

18 - Larry Fitzgerald (WR - Ari)

He was amazing in college and hasn't slowed down yet.  His production will go down a little with the switch to Matt Leinart who doesn't go downfield as much.  If Anquan Boldin gets hurt again though that could change.  He's still a good first wide-out to have but you may want to look to the guys lower on this list. 

Bold Prediction:  1,200 yards, 10 TD's.

17 - Ocho Cinco (WR - Cin)

He beat a horse in a race.  He'll have the best endzone celebrations this side of Terrell Owens, and oh yeah, he's averaged 1,400 yards and 8 TD's the last three seasons.  The drama's over, for now, and he's set for another big season.

Bold Prediction:  1,400 and 8 TD's like clockwork.

16 - Ryan Grant (RB - Gr. Bay)

This is way lower than most have him, but something tells me that teams will be stacking against him early on until Rogers is established at QB.  Early struggles could make him a good guy to target in early season trades, but don't draft this guy at the end of the first round.  You'll be disappointed.

Bold Prediction:  1,100 yards, 9 TD's.

15 - Braylon Edwards (WR - Cle)

He has the potential to be a Top-5 receiver before it's all said and done.  He'll get a few less deep balls with the addition of Donte' Stallworth and a switch to Brady Quinn wouldn't help things.  If you can get him around this spot, maybe even a couple spots earlier, take him.  He's a great goal line target at 6'3'' with his jumping ability which means short TD's.

Bold Prediction:  1,200 yards, 13 TD's.

14 - T.O. (WR - Dal)

"That's . . . my . . . quarterback . . ."  You never know what you're going to get off the field, but when he's healthy you know exactly what you're getting on the field, one of the best WR's there is.  He's 34 years old so a slight decline is to be expected, but he'll still be a guy to be feared.

Bold Prediction:  1,200 yards, 14 TD's.

13 - Andre Johnson (WR - Hou)

Some have him ranked as high as the second best receiver.  I've got him at 3rd.  If not for a sprained PCL, he was on track for 1,500 yards and 15 TD's.  Not too shabby.  Expecting something a little less isn't really a stretch with his tools and the addition of Matt Schaub.

Bold Prediction:  1,300 yards, 13 TD's.

12 - Reggie Wayne (WR - Ind)

Reggie Wayne is not fun to cover.  The guy runs all over the field and proved that he could be the number one option in Marvin Harrison's absence.  It's tough to value a guy whose value is so tied to another guy's health and legal issues.  Either way he'll be a guy who you can count on.

Bold Prediction:  1,400 yards, 12 TD's.

11 - Clinton Portis (RB - Wash)

His carries will go down with Jim Zorn in town, and with it his production, but he's still a late first round pick.  I personally like the wigs on his puny head.  He needs to stay healthy, but nothing in the off-season has led you to expect anything else.  Feel confident in this slot.

Bold Prediction:  1,200 yards, 12 TD's.

10 - Marion Barber (RB - Dal)

Drafting Felix Jones wasn't exactly a vote of confidence but we all know that Barber can't catch, he just throws guys off of him as he runs over anything else in his path.  He's the starting back, finally, but still splitting carries.

Bold Prediction:  1,200 yards, 13 TD's.

9 - Tom Brady (QB - NE)

You think he's pissed after losing the Super Bowl?  You think he'll be focused?  I do.  Violating my never pick a QB first rule might be ok with Brady if you do it late in the first round.  Plus he's got Gisele.  That's gotta be good for the confidence.  And he's got some receiver that's pretty good at catching the deep ball.  In triple coverage.

Bold Prediction:  40 TD's.

8 - Marshawn Lynch (RB - Buf)

I'm not sure what kind of karma you get for drafting a guy who hit and ran someone and then took a few days to own up to it.  How did the NFL not punish him for that?  On the field he'll get plenty of carries and figures to have a great second season.

Bold Prediction:  Over 300 carries, 1,300 yards.

7 - Randy Moss (WR - NE)

When your name gets tossed around in rap lyrics, it usually means you're pretty good, well, unless you're Juan Pierre.  It's Randy Moss and everybody else when it comes to WR which is why I'd go this high for him.  He's that much better.  Of course you can't pencil him in for 23 TD's again, but would you want to have passed on him for say, Ryan Grant or Marion Barber and then watch Moss explode every week?  He is a bit of an injury risk and will have his reps limited early, but don't let that stop you from drafting him.

Bold Prediction:  1,300 yards, 15 TD's.

6 - Frank Gore (RB - SF)

If you have the 6th pick you take him, simple as that.  He's not as good as the Top-5 and he's much more of a sure thing than the rest of the first rounders.  Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if he puts out a Fantasy MVP type season, but his TD totals won't approach what some might wish for, because he plays for Frisco. 

Bold Prediction:  1,500 yards, 12 TD's.

5 - Steven Jackson (RB - StL)

He'd be #3 if I could guarantee you that he wouldn't miss Week 1, but I can't guarantee you that.  It's not like the Rams are contending this year so they're not itching to give up a ton of money just to get Jackson back for the first game.  They'll lose at Philly either way.  Jackson will benefit from an Al Saunders system and figures to have a stronger year after how bad the Rams O-Line got last year with all of the injuries.

Bold Prediction:  1,300 yards, 14 TD's.

4 - Joseph Addai (RB - Ind)

Anyone who has had Addai has been nothing but pleased.  The Colts may take some carries away from Addai hoping to save him for the playoffs.  They drafted Mike Hart and brought back Dominic Rhodes.  His TD's will be there which is why he's such a good pick at either 3, 4, or 5.  Don't let him fall further than that.

Bold Prediction:  1,600 all-purpose yards, 13 TD's.

3 - Brian Westbrook (RB - Phi)

As with the Colts and Addai, the Eagles will look to limit Westbrook's touches in the regular season in hopes of saving the back for the playoffs.  He likely won't duplicate his career year last season, but even a little under that will be more than enough for fantasy owners.

Bold Prediction:  1,800 all-purpose yards, 12 TD's.

2 - Adrian Peterson (RB - Min)

He's not going to catch anybody by surprise this season but who cares.  The only thing that worries me is his being prone to injury.  He gets injured in the oddest ways, witness the broken collarbone at Oklahoma diving into the endzone.  However, when he's on the field, he's the most likely RB to have a career game at any time.  And that's saying something considering the game he had against Chicago last season.  There's a decent argument for him at #1, but I need to see more than one season of Purple Jesus before I put him in the top slot.

Bold Prediction:  18 TD's in 13 games.

1 - LaDainian Tomlinson (RB - SD)

Don't worry, he's not really injured.  That's the Chargers' way of avoiding playing him in preseason.  With his being a dual threat, he can struggle running the ball and still score in fantasy.  He's the surest thing there is and you can count your blessings if you snag the first pick in your draft. 

Bold Prediction:  2,000 all-purpose yards, 22 TD's.

So there you have it.  You're set for your draft, at least the early rounds.  Sorry if my entries after this one sound a little depressed.  I start school again on Monday.