2008 College Football Preview

Sorry to all of you RW faithful that I've been idle for the past few days.  Your reward:  a weekend College Football preview column.  I'll run down my projected top 10 for the end of the season.  The only wrinkle, these are my regular season final power rankings predictions.  Therefore, my #1 is who I think will win the BCS Championship, not who I think will necessarily be atop the polls.  My criteria at the end of the season will be recent success, strength of schedule, big game winnability and how much would I not want to bet against the school in question.

This season should be another exciting one.  As always, I will be rooting for a lot of one and two loss teams as well as one undefeated non-BCS conference school.  The more schools with legitimate beefs and claims to the national championship game the better.  Why?  Because I hate the BCS.  I hold the BCS in the same regard as say, Jimmy Carter, or country music.  Not a fan. 

Here is my one rule when it comes to college football.  Don't bet against solid SEC teams in bowl games.  The SEC is by far the best conference.  Don't get talked into Ohio State or Wisconsin just because they beat up on Minnesota and Indiana.  There are no easy games in the SEC.  Football is the number 1 concern for every SEC school, with maybe Kentucky as the exception.  Entire states shut down on Saturdays in the south.  What's more, the SEC puts its athletes on defense for the most part.  You've got giant linebackers and defensive ends who run 4.7 40-yard dashes.  Other conferences aren't used to playing against those types of teams and that's why you get the SEC running through the rest of the country when it comes to big bowl games.  That being said, here are my final regular season rankings, a few months early (with odds to win the BCS Championship in parenthesis for some objective Vegas views).  Again, these will reflect my personal power rankings at the end of the season, not necessarily the AP or Coaches Polls.

10.  Arizona State Sun Devils (75-1)

Arizona State enters its second season under Dennis Erickson, a guy who has some experience winning at the college level.  They'll be returning Rudy Carpenter, a sleeper Heisman candidate, at QB and a rushing attack that should compete for tops in the Pac-10.  Whether it's a positive or negative, only time will tell, but the Sun Devils get Georgia at home on Sept. 20.  That should be a telling game, and either way, it will be a great boost for their strength of schedule.  The middle of the Sun Devils schedule is a murderers row in the Pac-10 with games at Cal and USC, home for Oregon and then at Oregon State, all in succession.  The Sun Devils finish the season off with four games that they should be favored in, which could vault them into the top-10.  9-3 is not out of the realm of possibility for this squad.

9.  Louisiana State Tigers (20-1)

Losing Perrilloux didn't help.  Especially because who doesn't love names that end in "oux," in Louisiana no less.  LSU will be left with a QB sans experience in a complex offensive scheme.  However, the Tigers are highly talented at RB and WR led by deep threat Demetrius Byrd.  Tight end Richard Dickson is also one of the country's best at his position.  Now if only LSU can find a guy who can get the ball to them.  The QB should have plenty of time with a battle tested offensive line providing some support.  On the defensive line, one would think that the Tigers would be far worse after losing top-5 pick Glenn Dorsey.  However, the front line should be every bit as tough this year.  Where they may struggle is with an inexperienced linebacking core and secondary.  Road games at Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina will test this young Tigers squad.  Don't expect a repeat of last year's championship, but expect a very solid team that should win around nine games before entering the bowl season.  Normally I'd say, expect this team to vie for a New Year's Day bowl game, but who knows what the sign of a good game is now, Jan. 3rd? 

8.  Auburn Tigers (40-1)


It's tough to have the Tigers rated any higher with new coordinators and a new QB, whoever that ends up being.  While they have some issues at deciding who will be doing the play calling in the backfield, the rest of the Tigers offense should be fine.  Their freshman O-line of last year enters with plenty of experience now as a sophomore studded O-line.  They'll have depth at WR and RB as well as a great tight end in Trott.  However, when you're talking about Auburn, you're no doubt talking about the defense and this year is no different.  They do replace three starters on the D-Line but with Auburn, as always, they have plenty of guys waiting to fill those vacant spots.  The big question marks will remain on offense for Tuberville & Co. but this should be another solid season for the Tigers.  Their non-conference game on October 23 at West Virginia will be their biggest of the season whether they think so or not.  It will be very difficult to write off a loss against a Big East team for this SEC powerhouse.

7.  West Virginia Mountaineers (15-1)

Speaking of West Virginia, here's a team that shouldn't miss a beat on offense, even with the loss of Steve Slaton.  Pat White returns at QB and Noel Devine proved he can fill in nicely as the team's feature back, averaging 8.6 yards per carry last season when called upon.  There are some defensive holes on this team with its linebackers being the only sure bunch on that side of the ball.  However, there is no shortage of drive for the Mountaineers who will be desperately trying to prove to Rich Rodriguez that he made the wrong decision in bolting for Michigan.  This is a team with a strong offensive line that should be building off of last season's bowl game victory as a big underdog against Oklahoma.  And, if you'll remember, that victory came without Rodriguez at the helm.  If the defense can hang in there, this should be a fun team to watch all season, provided White can stay healthy.  A healthy White would have meant a national title berth for West Virginia last year as a victory over Pittsburgh in its final game would have meant that the Mountaineers would have faced Ohio State in the championship.  Expect big things this year from West Virginia, including a big victory over Auburn with West Virginia's notoriously rowdy fans providing the edge that they'll need to win that game.

6.  Missouri Tigers (15-1)

Missouri builds off a great season last year and will feature a Heisman hopeful, Chase Daniel, at QB.  Missouri has a favorable schedule this season with Kansas in a neutral site and a road game at Texas being its toughest games.  The only team to beat the Tigers last year, Oklahoma, is not on the schedule for Missouri this season.  An October 4th game at Nebraska provides the only other decent road test for a Tigers team that is returning plenty of talent from last year's breakout team.  Maclin and Coffman return at WR and TE respectively for an offense that could match points with anybody last year and the defense returns an All-American at safety in William Moore.  The Tigers don't have a lot of depth, but aside from that, it's tough to find a glaring weakness on this team.

5.  Oklahoma Sooners (5-1)

Oklahoma has a youthful defensive team entering the 2008 season but that shouldn't be too much of a problem if the offense plays up to its potential.  Sam Bradford, at quarterback, could be in the conversation for the Heisman.  He'll have a plethora of weapons to choose from and the running game should be solid as well.  The defense will have to show up in big games this season, which could prove to be a tall order.  It lacks experience and overwhelming talent at linebacker and in the secondary, which could spell trouble.  The Sooners will be relying on a strong defensive line to provide enough pressure to offset whatever weaknesses exist behind it.  Oklahoma has a decent schedule but lucks out with its back to back games against its toughest opponents, Texas and Kansas, being at home.  This is a season where you could see the Sooners favored in every regular season game it plays.  They could go undefeated, but I find that tough to bank on with all of the holes on defense.

4.  Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1)

As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.  Please, DO NOT put another Big-10 team in the championship game.  Luckily, it doesn't appear that after getting the crap beaten out of them, again, that the Buckeyes will have a say in the BCS Championship game.  They will not go undefeated this season with a road game at the Coliseum against USC.  Even if they sweep the rest of their schedule, which is entirely possible with a road game at Wisconsin being the Buckeyes' toughest test, there is no way that we should see the Buckeyes making a case for the title game.  That being said, they'll be making that case at the end of the year with all of the starters that they are returning.  There is no reason to think that they will not take another Big-10 title.  They get Penn State and Michigan at home and their only other semi-test comes on the road at Illinois.  The Buckeyes are returning 18 starters, but again, please do not be fooled by this likely one-loss team at the end of the year.  The only reason I would want them in the title game would be to bet against them.  Look elsewhere for your national champion.

3.  USC Trojans (7-2)

Mark Sanchez figures to be fine after dislocating his kneecap, as weird as that is to say.  This ex-alleged rapist (sorry Trojan fans, had to throw that in there) will be leading the best team in the Pac-10 to another conference title this year.  Yawn.  They have a front loaded schedule with all of their games against ranked opponents coming four in a row before mid-October will even have passed.  Three of those four games are at home (Ohio State, Oregon, Arizona State) with only 25th-ranked Oregon State on the road.  The Trojans should go undefeated, but this is a team that lost to a 41-point underdog featuring a third string starter, at home, against Stanford last season.  The Trojans don't jump any higher on my list because their source of power in the past, the offensive line, has some question marks this season.  Outside of that, and any unexpected L's, expect the Trojans to be in the BCS title game, but only 3rd in the RW Power Rankings.

2.  Florida Gators (5-1)

You can't talk Florida football, especially to a Gator fan, without first talking about Tim Tebow.  I'm sorry, Heisman trophy winner, Tim Tebow.  Florida comes off with another year of experience with the spread offense under Urban Meyer, and a world to prove after the stinker it threw up against a two touchdown underdog Michigan team in the Capital One Bowl last year.  Florida will have some tough tests on the road against Georgia and Tennessee and another tough home game against LSU.  If the Gators can win 2 of those 3, they should be prevalent in the national title conversation come season's end.  The Gators return plenty of weapons at receiver and will have a lot of bodies to throw out there with the running back by committee system that plagues so many fantasy football rosters.  The question mark on offense comes at the line.  If this unit can perform, the Gators will be a tough team for anybody to beat this season because the defense will be dominant as always.  The question marks on defense come at defensive tackle and in the secondary but it appears as though Urban Meyer's recruiting has solidified those positions with some great freshman talent coming in.  The Gators do have a very tough schedule but I promise that you will not want to see this team lining up against you late in the year.

1.  Georgia Bulldogs (5-1)

The only significant loss for the Bulldogs this offseason was the passing away of Uga VI.  Provided they find a new mascot with the drive of Uga VI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foGHh14uvKk), I'm going with the Bulldogs as my national title winners.  Like the Gators, the Bulldogs have a tough schedule.  The Bulldogs in fact have the toughest schedule in the country with road games against Arizona State, LSU, South Carolina and Auburn, and home games against Alabama and Florida.  If you're looking for a two-loss team to make its way into the title game, this is it.  With their schedule and the renewed prominence of the SEC, Georgia could very well make the title game if its only two losses are say, at LSU and Auburn.  The Bulldogs return a team that lost almost nobody and had a legitimate argument for the title game last season, which it hammered home against Hawaii in that 134-7 victory.  Ok, maybe that wasn't the actual score, but it may as well have been.  Knowshon Moreno has one of the greatest first names in the country and apparently he knows the Soulja Boy dance (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qLkHr61Z2M . . . make sure to watch the whole clip to see Verne Lundquist do a little grooving).  Stafford returns at QB and will be throwing to the most talented group of receivers that the Bulldogs have had since Fred Gibson and Reggie Brown.  By the way, in my adult basketball league that I play in, Fred Gibson was guarding me for half of the game.  Let's just say that I didn't break him down off the dribble too often.  The only bad thing you can say about the Bulldogs defense is that their starting cornerbacks are my height.  Aside from that, make sure you keep an eye on this Bulldogs team and don't give up on them if they slip up at some point through the gauntlet that is their schedule.  Oh yeah, and they have to stay out of prison. 

So there you have it.  Don't forget, these aren't my rankings predictions because I don't see a rematch between Georgia and Florida happening in the championship game.  No, I see Georgia 31-USC 24 being the BCS Championship score if I have to predict that outcome.  And because I know we all loved his work, R.I.P. Bernie Mac.
 

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Comments

  • 8/10/2008 5:02 PM Kyle wrote:
    I think it will be Oklahoma as #1.

    If you're into predicting who will make it to the championship game, here's a pretty cool game format we play.
    Reply to this
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