MLB In-Season Preview - Chalk Edition
Down to the final four teams. This season feels almost like a college basketball season with so many teams that can win it and so few favorites. Before we get into this, just note that I never advise getting down on the chalk this early in the season. One five-game losing streak in August, one injury, one rumor, and you're set to get a better price. It's not worth it to put your money down this early in the game unless you think you're getting the best price you're going to possibly get all season from this point on. With baseball, that's too hard to predict this early when it comes to the chalk.
Philadelphia Phillies (42-35 record; 12-1 to win World Series)
First off, here's a perfect example of why you don't get down on a team like the Phillies at 8-1. One bad weekend and here they are at 12-1. In other words if I had written the long shot edition today instead of on Friday, Philadelphia would have been there instead of here in the chalk edition.
If you're taking Philadelphia you have to like that lineup. With Rollins leading off and guys like ChUtley, Howard, and Burrell batting behind him, there's a reason that this team has a +79 run advantage this year despite a record that barely ekes over the .500 mark. This team can put up runs and in a hurry. However, come October, well, you saw what happened last year and I don't think this year will be too different. Their pitching is just too inconsistent. Hamels is solid but Moyer and Eaton have a better shot at cashing in on Social Security in baseball years than they do at carrying a team through meaningul playoff games. And I know you don't trust Kyle Kendrick or Brett Myers with those 5.00+ ERA's that they're sporting. Sure they got Lidge to close, but I still can't get over his playoff performance in 2005. Has that ball that Pujols hit landed yet? Add it all up and you have a very good regular season team who doesn't have what it takes to get it done come October.
Boston Red Sox (47-31 record; 5-2 to win World Series)
This team is the poster child for the don't bet them this early rule. 5-2 in June? Are you sure Big Papi is going to be ok when he comes back? Is J.D. Drew the answer? What kind of midseason trades will the Sox make? Do you trust anyone on that staff outside of Beckett come October? Those are a lot of questions that you would have to answer in the affirmative in order to get down at 5-2.
On to the good news. The Red Sox have a great recent history and plenty of playoff experience despite having a bunch of young guns. They are tied for the league lead in OPS and 5th in HR. Beckett is good for an automatic win in any playoff series, likely two. Plus, the games are shortened to 7 innings for the Sox with Okajima and Papelbon waiting to pitch the 8th and 9th innings respectively. The Sox staff leads the league in K's, which is important. I love teams that can get guys out without having to worry about having balls hit into play. There's no chance of a bad hop or a clutch bloop single if the ball ends up in the catcher's mitt.
All of that being said, I still don't like this team until I see a healthy Papi. I lived through the J.D. Drew era in L.A. That guy sucks. I don't like him. I'd almost rather sign Darren Dreifort again than see Drew mope around right field at Dodger Stadium. In addition, I don't trust the Sox staff as a whole. Lester is a feel good story but unless Beckett gets two wins per series and the bats are all popping, I don't see the Sox defending their title.
California Angels of Disneyland in Anaheim (46-30 record; 6-1 to win World Series)
Sorry to all of you Angels fans, but I am born and raised in L.A. Not only is Anaheim not within sniffing distance of L.A., but I've never met an Angels fan who remotely seems like he was born in L.A. Here's my rule for saying you live in Los Angeles. On a clear day, you must be able to see either downtown or Century City from where you live, provided you're not blinded by another building or trees or something. You get the picture. So, sorry Tarzana, sorry Arcadia, sorry everything south of Carson. You're not L.A. Anaheim, you're definitely not L.A. If your Jewish population is under 10%, that's basically a good sign that where you live can't be considered Los Angeles. I went to an Angels game and couldn't have felt more out of place. It's basically how I think my sister feels when she walks around campus at her school in Redlands.
Anyhow, back to the baseball. The Angels are great on paper. You want to talk about shortening a game. K-Rod just notched his 30th save of the season and we're not even in July. The rest of the bullpen is still solid and their staff is plenty fine come playoff time with Lackey holding it down. But there's a problem, maybe putting that "Los Angeles" in front of their team name made the Angels come down with a case of Dodgersitis. Because now they can't score. They're 16 games over .500 with only a +13 run advantage. To put that in perspective, the Braves are a game under .500 with a +43 run advantage. Cleveland is 6 games under .500 with a +15 run advantage. Now, if you're a "glass is half-full" Angels fan then you're saying to yourself that the bats will wake up and all of these close games are good for playoff experience. Unfortunately, if you live on planet reality, you'll realize that Vlad isn't the same Vlad that played for the Expos. They wanted to DH him even though the guy had the most feared arm in baseball and used to steal 30+ bases. Not a good sign. The Angels are aging and I'm not sure that Torii Hunter was the cure all. Sorry Angels fans, but come October time that lack of run production will mean getting off the exit and going to Disneyland instead of Edison Field. Say hi to Mickey and Minnie for me.
The Pick: Chicago Cubs (48-28 record; 4-1 to win World Series)
I'm convinced that if the Cubs were wearing Red Sox or Yankees jerseys with the exact same squad that they would be 2-1 at worst. They have a +112 run advantage this season! That's almost a 1.5 run advantage per game! That's a lot of winning. Even with the injury trouble, this team has still persevered. They are tied for the lead league in OPS., alone in first in Batting Average, and third in total bases. Their lineup will be downright scary with Soriano back in the playoffs.
Their pitching staff, once thought to be the weak link, is 4th in ERA and K's, 3rd in Batting Average Allowed. Kerry Wood is a healthy addition at closer. No pun intended putting Wood's name and the word "healthy" in the same sentence. Zambrano is a legitimate ace when he comes back healthy, which he should. Dempster is experiencing new life as a starter. Ted Lilly is solid (on a personal note, I walked in to Dodger stadium next to his family. They were all very nice. It's easy to spot the family when they're all wearing Lilly jerseys. They were shocked when I asked if they were related to him. What other family is going to be all decked out in Ted Lilly jerseys?). Jason Marquis is Jewish so he has to be good and the middle relief featuring Marmol's 0.86 WHIP is very playoffesque. The Cubs have all the ingredients and you know they'll have a serious home field advantage when October comes around. To top it all off, Lou Pinella isn't going to pull a Grady Little and freeze up. He'll be able to keep everyone in check. Add it all up, and you get my chalk pick, the Cubs.
So there you have it. I apologize to any Cubs fans reading this because after I picked the D-Backs as my long shot pick, well, they haven't won a game since and went from 12-1 to 20-1 to win it all. Sorry guys and gals. It could be worse, you could be Dodgers fans waiting to see which fat guy comes back first off of the DL: Penny, Schmidt, or Andruw Jones. Let the Dodger Dog eating contest begin!
Best weekend: Andre Berto. Another solid TKO win against a game Miguel Rodriguez. Berto is only 24 years old but looks like a very solid welterweight and it's only fitting that he claimed Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s vacant WBC belt using Floyd's famed shoulder roll technique. With Mayweather gone, and De La Hoya likely fighting someone he can beat, Berto becomes a logical opponent for the Cotto/Margarito winner. Stay tuned.
Worst weekend: Italy. Losing on penalty kicks is never fun, especially in the Euro Cup, which comes only every four years. Italy was without star Andrea Pirlo due to a rare accumulation of yellow cards for him. However, he was only sitting because the new rule this year erased the yellow card count after the quarterfinal round instead of just before. The Italians seemed to be playing for a tie and lost to a superb goalkeeper in Real Madrid's Iker Casillas. Tough luck for the Italians, though you can't feel too badly for them after they won the World Cup in PK's.
Coming up next on Rudin Weekly, my WNBA preview . . . sorry, I just wanted an easy laugh out of you.
Philadelphia Phillies (42-35 record; 12-1 to win World Series)
First off, here's a perfect example of why you don't get down on a team like the Phillies at 8-1. One bad weekend and here they are at 12-1. In other words if I had written the long shot edition today instead of on Friday, Philadelphia would have been there instead of here in the chalk edition.
If you're taking Philadelphia you have to like that lineup. With Rollins leading off and guys like ChUtley, Howard, and Burrell batting behind him, there's a reason that this team has a +79 run advantage this year despite a record that barely ekes over the .500 mark. This team can put up runs and in a hurry. However, come October, well, you saw what happened last year and I don't think this year will be too different. Their pitching is just too inconsistent. Hamels is solid but Moyer and Eaton have a better shot at cashing in on Social Security in baseball years than they do at carrying a team through meaningul playoff games. And I know you don't trust Kyle Kendrick or Brett Myers with those 5.00+ ERA's that they're sporting. Sure they got Lidge to close, but I still can't get over his playoff performance in 2005. Has that ball that Pujols hit landed yet? Add it all up and you have a very good regular season team who doesn't have what it takes to get it done come October.
Boston Red Sox (47-31 record; 5-2 to win World Series)
This team is the poster child for the don't bet them this early rule. 5-2 in June? Are you sure Big Papi is going to be ok when he comes back? Is J.D. Drew the answer? What kind of midseason trades will the Sox make? Do you trust anyone on that staff outside of Beckett come October? Those are a lot of questions that you would have to answer in the affirmative in order to get down at 5-2.
On to the good news. The Red Sox have a great recent history and plenty of playoff experience despite having a bunch of young guns. They are tied for the league lead in OPS and 5th in HR. Beckett is good for an automatic win in any playoff series, likely two. Plus, the games are shortened to 7 innings for the Sox with Okajima and Papelbon waiting to pitch the 8th and 9th innings respectively. The Sox staff leads the league in K's, which is important. I love teams that can get guys out without having to worry about having balls hit into play. There's no chance of a bad hop or a clutch bloop single if the ball ends up in the catcher's mitt.
All of that being said, I still don't like this team until I see a healthy Papi. I lived through the J.D. Drew era in L.A. That guy sucks. I don't like him. I'd almost rather sign Darren Dreifort again than see Drew mope around right field at Dodger Stadium. In addition, I don't trust the Sox staff as a whole. Lester is a feel good story but unless Beckett gets two wins per series and the bats are all popping, I don't see the Sox defending their title.
California Angels of Disneyland in Anaheim (46-30 record; 6-1 to win World Series)
Sorry to all of you Angels fans, but I am born and raised in L.A. Not only is Anaheim not within sniffing distance of L.A., but I've never met an Angels fan who remotely seems like he was born in L.A. Here's my rule for saying you live in Los Angeles. On a clear day, you must be able to see either downtown or Century City from where you live, provided you're not blinded by another building or trees or something. You get the picture. So, sorry Tarzana, sorry Arcadia, sorry everything south of Carson. You're not L.A. Anaheim, you're definitely not L.A. If your Jewish population is under 10%, that's basically a good sign that where you live can't be considered Los Angeles. I went to an Angels game and couldn't have felt more out of place. It's basically how I think my sister feels when she walks around campus at her school in Redlands.
Anyhow, back to the baseball. The Angels are great on paper. You want to talk about shortening a game. K-Rod just notched his 30th save of the season and we're not even in July. The rest of the bullpen is still solid and their staff is plenty fine come playoff time with Lackey holding it down. But there's a problem, maybe putting that "Los Angeles" in front of their team name made the Angels come down with a case of Dodgersitis. Because now they can't score. They're 16 games over .500 with only a +13 run advantage. To put that in perspective, the Braves are a game under .500 with a +43 run advantage. Cleveland is 6 games under .500 with a +15 run advantage. Now, if you're a "glass is half-full" Angels fan then you're saying to yourself that the bats will wake up and all of these close games are good for playoff experience. Unfortunately, if you live on planet reality, you'll realize that Vlad isn't the same Vlad that played for the Expos. They wanted to DH him even though the guy had the most feared arm in baseball and used to steal 30+ bases. Not a good sign. The Angels are aging and I'm not sure that Torii Hunter was the cure all. Sorry Angels fans, but come October time that lack of run production will mean getting off the exit and going to Disneyland instead of Edison Field. Say hi to Mickey and Minnie for me.
The Pick: Chicago Cubs (48-28 record; 4-1 to win World Series)
I'm convinced that if the Cubs were wearing Red Sox or Yankees jerseys with the exact same squad that they would be 2-1 at worst. They have a +112 run advantage this season! That's almost a 1.5 run advantage per game! That's a lot of winning. Even with the injury trouble, this team has still persevered. They are tied for the lead league in OPS., alone in first in Batting Average, and third in total bases. Their lineup will be downright scary with Soriano back in the playoffs.
Their pitching staff, once thought to be the weak link, is 4th in ERA and K's, 3rd in Batting Average Allowed. Kerry Wood is a healthy addition at closer. No pun intended putting Wood's name and the word "healthy" in the same sentence. Zambrano is a legitimate ace when he comes back healthy, which he should. Dempster is experiencing new life as a starter. Ted Lilly is solid (on a personal note, I walked in to Dodger stadium next to his family. They were all very nice. It's easy to spot the family when they're all wearing Lilly jerseys. They were shocked when I asked if they were related to him. What other family is going to be all decked out in Ted Lilly jerseys?). Jason Marquis is Jewish so he has to be good and the middle relief featuring Marmol's 0.86 WHIP is very playoffesque. The Cubs have all the ingredients and you know they'll have a serious home field advantage when October comes around. To top it all off, Lou Pinella isn't going to pull a Grady Little and freeze up. He'll be able to keep everyone in check. Add it all up, and you get my chalk pick, the Cubs.
So there you have it. I apologize to any Cubs fans reading this because after I picked the D-Backs as my long shot pick, well, they haven't won a game since and went from 12-1 to 20-1 to win it all. Sorry guys and gals. It could be worse, you could be Dodgers fans waiting to see which fat guy comes back first off of the DL: Penny, Schmidt, or Andruw Jones. Let the Dodger Dog eating contest begin!
Best weekend: Andre Berto. Another solid TKO win against a game Miguel Rodriguez. Berto is only 24 years old but looks like a very solid welterweight and it's only fitting that he claimed Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s vacant WBC belt using Floyd's famed shoulder roll technique. With Mayweather gone, and De La Hoya likely fighting someone he can beat, Berto becomes a logical opponent for the Cotto/Margarito winner. Stay tuned.
Worst weekend: Italy. Losing on penalty kicks is never fun, especially in the Euro Cup, which comes only every four years. Italy was without star Andrea Pirlo due to a rare accumulation of yellow cards for him. However, he was only sitting because the new rule this year erased the yellow card count after the quarterfinal round instead of just before. The Italians seemed to be playing for a tie and lost to a superb goalkeeper in Real Madrid's Iker Casillas. Tough luck for the Italians, though you can't feel too badly for them after they won the World Cup in PK's.
Coming up next on Rudin Weekly, my WNBA preview . . . sorry, I just wanted an easy laugh out of you.
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