MLB In-Season Preview - Long Shots Edition
Dating back to 2002, I started picking my World Season winner just before the midway point of each season. But, I'd always pick a long shot because it was more fun and in baseball it always seems plausible that a longshot can come through at win, especially in recent years. You should note that I have never picked a winner, but, in 2005 I did get down on the Astros at 200-1 in early June only to watch them lose the World Series to the White Sox. I still really really hate A.J. Pierzynski. Anyhow, there are several criteria that go into my pick. First and foremost, you need a team that has what it takes to win in October, which means, you need a team with pitching. I usually gravitate toward teams with a great starter or two because it provides such an advantage to have a guy like Josh Beckett pitching two games during a seven-game series, maybe even three if the schedule allows. Next, you can't have a completely anemic offense. You do need to score runs in baseball unfortunately. Of course there is a lot of luck involved, which is why I don't bet on favorites this early because who knows when the injury bug will strike (witness Carlos Zambrano). However, sometimes you create your own luck. For instance, you know a team like the Red Sox has the money and the fan demand to make big midseason moves to improve the team. There are other factors I like to take into account but you get the idea. The odds listed to win the World Series are taken from a sports betting site. Only teams with double digit odds or worse to win it all fall into the long shot category. Here we go.
Teams That Make You Wish For A Relegation System . . . Down To AAA You Go!
(For those who don't know about relegation, in leagues like the English Premier League, the top three teams in the standings from the B-League move up to the A-League with the bottom three teams from the A-League getting relegated to the B-League, every season. That'll give teams something to play for when they're sniffing the 100-loss mark come September, won't it? I say we try it.)
Seattle Mariners (25-47 record; 100-1 odds to win World Series): At least they have Starbucks.
Kansas City Royals (31-42 record; 100-1 odds to win World Series): Quick, name 5 Royals.
Washington Nationals (29-45 record; 100-1 odds to win World Series): Nothing seems to go right in the nation's capital these days.
San Francisco Giants (31-42 record; 100-1 odds to win World Series): Lincecum's great but when Bengie Molina is your cleanup hitter, you're in trouble. Hey, at least Barry Zito and his 2-11 record aren't on the books for too much longer, wait, yes they are.
Wait, We Have To Pitch Too?
Texas Rangers (37-37 record; 100-1 to win World Series): 5.04 ERA is downright awful, but not as bad as the . . .
Pittsburgh Pirates (34-39 record; 100-1 to win World Series): 5.14 ERA, 1.59 WHIP are worst in the majors.
Weren't We Good Recently?
Colorado Rockies (31-42 record; 75-1 to win World Series): Last postseason seems like an eternity ago for these guys. Maybe they need more religion (http://www.time.com/time/arts/article/0,8599,1677120,00.html?imw=Y).
San Diego Padres (31-43 record; 100-1 to win World Series): I think they may need to re-activate Tony Gwynn, Sr. I'm sure he can hit better that some of the guys on the current club. How old is Trevor Hoffman by the way?
Not Quite There Yet
Cincinnati Reds (33-41 record; 100-1 to win World Series): Great young talent, not enough to win this year.
Baltimore Orioles (37-34 record; 100-1 to win World Series): At least the fans aren't staging organized walkouts this season. That's always a good thing.
Just Not Getting It Done
Minnesota Twins (37-36 record; 75-1 to win World Series): If they didn't get it done with Johan in his prime, what makes you think this year will be any different?
Toronto Blue Jays (35-39 record; 40-1 to win World Series): Missing too many pieces. Also not a good sign when you fire your manager the day I write this article.
Cleveland Indians (33-40 record; 20-1 to win World Series): Paging Travis Hafner. Please report back soon.
One Major Flaw Too Many
Atlanta Braves (36-38 record; 40-1 to win World Series): Too bad they don't play all of their games at home (11-27 on the road). Beware though. They're two games under .500 but have a +45 run differential. Part of that is bullpen woes, which they hope Mike Gonzalez will correct, but a team that scores almost a run a game more than its opponents may have a winning streak looming.
Florida Marlins (39-33 record; 40-1 to win World Series): Sorry, I can't pick a team whose hitters have the worst K/BB ratio in the majors at 2.7 strikeouts for every walk that they draw.
Milwaukee Brewers (39-33 record; 40-1 to win World Series): Their starters have to go 8 innings to give them a chance of winning games with their middle relief issues. And that's assuming you trust Salomon Torres in the ninth. If you're awaiting Gagne's return, just ask my future brother-in-law, Scott, a die-hard Sox fan what he thinks of Gagne. I personally love Gagne for what he gave to the Dodgers. But I wouldn't trust him to save a kitten in a tree right now.
A Puncher's Chance
Houston Astros (33-40 record; 50-1 to win World Series): That lineup is fierce, now will someone please wake Roy Oswalt up and tell him that Spring Training is over. Even with a solid Oswalt, the Astros will need to acquire some starting pitching help for the stretch run.
Oakland A's (39-33 record; 30-1 to win World Series): Great young talent per usual, but don't count on management to do anything big enough to push this team over the top this season, per usual. I would hate to be an A's fan. They're the new Montreal Expos with a few more fans and some rap legends repping the city.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (43-29 record; 10-1 to win World Series): How long can they keep going? The hitting may be for real and a healthy Kazmir has been great for them. However, with your season on the line, it's the bottom of the ninth, the music starts, and in walks . . . Troy Percival? Not buying this team, yet.
Los Angeles Dodgers (34-48 record; 25-1 to win World Series): The pitching is more than solid. Billingsley is coming along, Kershaw should be nice. Lowe is finding his stuff again. Penny is fat, so is Schmidt (just throwing that in there). And then there's the hitting. Andruw Jones is fat too by the way. I know they said he tore some cartilage, but my theory is that he woke up hungry one night, his fridge was empty, so he started eating his knee. Anyhow, on paper, the lineup looks fine. But, if you want to torture yourself sometime, go ahead and bet the over in a Dodgers game. You'll talk yourself into Over 7.5 with Ubaldo Jiminez facing Derek Lowe and then the game ends 3-1 and you'll hate yourself for even contemplating taking the over in a Dodgers game. To sum it up, you need to score runs to win baseball games. The Dodgers don't score runs, therefore they won't win many baseball games.
The Contenders
Chicago White Sox (41-31 record; 12-1 to win World Series): Well, they've done it before with a similar crew. They didn't crumble when their manager went insane, again. I say that gives them a shot. They have a solid bullpen. Their hitters are starting to wake up. But, the starting pitching will probably be what holds them back. I know that seems silly to say now, what with the White Sox leading the majors with a 3.32 ERA, but are you telling me that you're comfortable with Gavin Floyd and Jose Contreras starting playoff games for you? I'm not.
Detroit Tigers (34-38 record; 15-1 to win World Series): First off, it's not a very good sign when one of your key acquisitions from the off-season gets demoted to SINGLE-A! Dontrelle is still a very cool name though. The Tigers were a trendy pick to do some damage this year. Verlander is still about as good as it gets whenever he finds his stuff. They have other good young pitching too, plus, that lineup is downright scary. A lot of contact hitters with some power mixed in. That's a good combo. Plus, it's not like anyone is going to run away with the AL Central. But something just doesn't smell right. Maybe it's Kenny Rogers' palm, who knows. But, until Verlander finds himself, and the Tigers start playing with a semblance of consistency, I can't make them my long shot pick.
St. Louis Cardinals (42-32 record; 20-1 to win World Series): The Cardinals are getting way too much bad luck this season. Wainwright and Pujols going down in succession did not help things. It's going to be hard to keep it all together for a team that already has bullpen worries. Sorry Ryan Franklin, I don't trust you yet. You look too much like waiver-wire fodder turned lucky. Anyhow, if the Cardinals get some pitching around the deadline and get their guys back healthy, then I may start to like them, but not worth my long shot pick yet either.
New York Yankees (40-33 record; 10-1 to win World Series): If you want to bet them, now's the time. The Yankees aren't exactly going to sneak up on anyone, especially when they're the hottest team in baseball. But before you start talking yourself into this squad, don't forget why they haven't gotten it done in recent years. No pitching. No role players. Hank, trading Cano for Penny is not going to help either of those issues. The Yankees need some gritty guys to start getting things done on offense. You know, like a David Eckstein circa 2006. Someone who will energize you by beating out a chopper. The Yankees don't have any of those guys anymore. Also, Mo Rivera still shortens the game by an inning or two, but that doesn't matter when you're lucky to get 5 innings out of your starters. I wouldn't want to face the Yankees in the postseason, but I wouldn't want to have my money on them either. Sorry Hank, maybe next year.
New York Mets (35-36 record; 20-1 to win World Series): You want to talk about being good on paper, say hello to the Mets. How is this team so bad? They have a solid lineup, a decent bullpen headlined by a great closer, and arguably the best pitcher in the game in Johan. What's the deal? You have to consider the Mets a strong candidate to get it together now that Randolph is gone and they can finally close the door to the past. It isn't to say that it was Randolph's fault as much as the Mets needed a jolt to move past last season's collapse and this season's start. Firing Randolph could have been that jolt. They're only 5.5 games back of the Phillies so it's not too far a stretch to say that the Mets could be atop the AL East this time next month. Still though, this team doesn't feel like a World Series winner. They don't have the chemistry, the grit, or the drive that has defined all of the winners from the recent years. They look too much like the NL version of the 2000s Yankees teams.
The Pick
Arizona Diamondbacks (39-34 record; 12-1 to win World Series): This is the scariest team to face in October if you ask me. In a seven game series, you'd be facing Brandon Webb and Dan Haren twice apiece. The staff as a whole sports an ERA under 4 and the best K/BB ratio in the majors at 2.6. If this team struggles, it will not be because the pitching has let them down. The offense has a bunch of young guys who have loads of talent. I like talent come October. Guys like Chris Young and Justin Upton are the ones I'd hate to face late in the season. They're just plain good. And, after all that talk about how bad the bullpen would be, Brandon Lyon has been more than adequate, and setup man Chad Qualls has big time experience and is the veteran you'd love to go to as a setup guy. Basically, I could just see this team riding hot performances from Brandon Webb and Dan Haren to the title. It's like having a hot goalie in hockey during the playoffs. Just a devastating advantage. Plus, Arizona has proven itself as willing to go after big name guys, so watch out for them come trade deadline time to get one more bat. Finally, is there any way that Arizona doesn't make the postseason? That's a pretty big key to winning it all, making the postseason. With the NL West being garbage, I see a cakewalk for the D-Backs. So congratulations Arizona. It's yours to lose, unless one of those pesky favorites comes through.
So there you have it. Arizona at 12 to 1. Stay tuned early next week for the favorites preview. As always, feel free to email me at Eric.Rudin@gmail.com.
Teams That Make You Wish For A Relegation System . . . Down To AAA You Go!
(For those who don't know about relegation, in leagues like the English Premier League, the top three teams in the standings from the B-League move up to the A-League with the bottom three teams from the A-League getting relegated to the B-League, every season. That'll give teams something to play for when they're sniffing the 100-loss mark come September, won't it? I say we try it.)
Seattle Mariners (25-47 record; 100-1 odds to win World Series): At least they have Starbucks.
Kansas City Royals (31-42 record; 100-1 odds to win World Series): Quick, name 5 Royals.
Washington Nationals (29-45 record; 100-1 odds to win World Series): Nothing seems to go right in the nation's capital these days.
San Francisco Giants (31-42 record; 100-1 odds to win World Series): Lincecum's great but when Bengie Molina is your cleanup hitter, you're in trouble. Hey, at least Barry Zito and his 2-11 record aren't on the books for too much longer, wait, yes they are.
Wait, We Have To Pitch Too?
Texas Rangers (37-37 record; 100-1 to win World Series): 5.04 ERA is downright awful, but not as bad as the . . .
Pittsburgh Pirates (34-39 record; 100-1 to win World Series): 5.14 ERA, 1.59 WHIP are worst in the majors.
Weren't We Good Recently?
Colorado Rockies (31-42 record; 75-1 to win World Series): Last postseason seems like an eternity ago for these guys. Maybe they need more religion (http://www.time.com/time/arts/article/0,8599,1677120,00.html?imw=Y).
San Diego Padres (31-43 record; 100-1 to win World Series): I think they may need to re-activate Tony Gwynn, Sr. I'm sure he can hit better that some of the guys on the current club. How old is Trevor Hoffman by the way?
Not Quite There Yet
Cincinnati Reds (33-41 record; 100-1 to win World Series): Great young talent, not enough to win this year.
Baltimore Orioles (37-34 record; 100-1 to win World Series): At least the fans aren't staging organized walkouts this season. That's always a good thing.
Just Not Getting It Done
Minnesota Twins (37-36 record; 75-1 to win World Series): If they didn't get it done with Johan in his prime, what makes you think this year will be any different?
Toronto Blue Jays (35-39 record; 40-1 to win World Series): Missing too many pieces. Also not a good sign when you fire your manager the day I write this article.
Cleveland Indians (33-40 record; 20-1 to win World Series): Paging Travis Hafner. Please report back soon.
One Major Flaw Too Many
Atlanta Braves (36-38 record; 40-1 to win World Series): Too bad they don't play all of their games at home (11-27 on the road). Beware though. They're two games under .500 but have a +45 run differential. Part of that is bullpen woes, which they hope Mike Gonzalez will correct, but a team that scores almost a run a game more than its opponents may have a winning streak looming.
Florida Marlins (39-33 record; 40-1 to win World Series): Sorry, I can't pick a team whose hitters have the worst K/BB ratio in the majors at 2.7 strikeouts for every walk that they draw.
Milwaukee Brewers (39-33 record; 40-1 to win World Series): Their starters have to go 8 innings to give them a chance of winning games with their middle relief issues. And that's assuming you trust Salomon Torres in the ninth. If you're awaiting Gagne's return, just ask my future brother-in-law, Scott, a die-hard Sox fan what he thinks of Gagne. I personally love Gagne for what he gave to the Dodgers. But I wouldn't trust him to save a kitten in a tree right now.
A Puncher's Chance
Houston Astros (33-40 record; 50-1 to win World Series): That lineup is fierce, now will someone please wake Roy Oswalt up and tell him that Spring Training is over. Even with a solid Oswalt, the Astros will need to acquire some starting pitching help for the stretch run.
Oakland A's (39-33 record; 30-1 to win World Series): Great young talent per usual, but don't count on management to do anything big enough to push this team over the top this season, per usual. I would hate to be an A's fan. They're the new Montreal Expos with a few more fans and some rap legends repping the city.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (43-29 record; 10-1 to win World Series): How long can they keep going? The hitting may be for real and a healthy Kazmir has been great for them. However, with your season on the line, it's the bottom of the ninth, the music starts, and in walks . . . Troy Percival? Not buying this team, yet.
Los Angeles Dodgers (34-48 record; 25-1 to win World Series): The pitching is more than solid. Billingsley is coming along, Kershaw should be nice. Lowe is finding his stuff again. Penny is fat, so is Schmidt (just throwing that in there). And then there's the hitting. Andruw Jones is fat too by the way. I know they said he tore some cartilage, but my theory is that he woke up hungry one night, his fridge was empty, so he started eating his knee. Anyhow, on paper, the lineup looks fine. But, if you want to torture yourself sometime, go ahead and bet the over in a Dodgers game. You'll talk yourself into Over 7.5 with Ubaldo Jiminez facing Derek Lowe and then the game ends 3-1 and you'll hate yourself for even contemplating taking the over in a Dodgers game. To sum it up, you need to score runs to win baseball games. The Dodgers don't score runs, therefore they won't win many baseball games.
The Contenders
Chicago White Sox (41-31 record; 12-1 to win World Series): Well, they've done it before with a similar crew. They didn't crumble when their manager went insane, again. I say that gives them a shot. They have a solid bullpen. Their hitters are starting to wake up. But, the starting pitching will probably be what holds them back. I know that seems silly to say now, what with the White Sox leading the majors with a 3.32 ERA, but are you telling me that you're comfortable with Gavin Floyd and Jose Contreras starting playoff games for you? I'm not.
Detroit Tigers (34-38 record; 15-1 to win World Series): First off, it's not a very good sign when one of your key acquisitions from the off-season gets demoted to SINGLE-A! Dontrelle is still a very cool name though. The Tigers were a trendy pick to do some damage this year. Verlander is still about as good as it gets whenever he finds his stuff. They have other good young pitching too, plus, that lineup is downright scary. A lot of contact hitters with some power mixed in. That's a good combo. Plus, it's not like anyone is going to run away with the AL Central. But something just doesn't smell right. Maybe it's Kenny Rogers' palm, who knows. But, until Verlander finds himself, and the Tigers start playing with a semblance of consistency, I can't make them my long shot pick.
St. Louis Cardinals (42-32 record; 20-1 to win World Series): The Cardinals are getting way too much bad luck this season. Wainwright and Pujols going down in succession did not help things. It's going to be hard to keep it all together for a team that already has bullpen worries. Sorry Ryan Franklin, I don't trust you yet. You look too much like waiver-wire fodder turned lucky. Anyhow, if the Cardinals get some pitching around the deadline and get their guys back healthy, then I may start to like them, but not worth my long shot pick yet either.
New York Yankees (40-33 record; 10-1 to win World Series): If you want to bet them, now's the time. The Yankees aren't exactly going to sneak up on anyone, especially when they're the hottest team in baseball. But before you start talking yourself into this squad, don't forget why they haven't gotten it done in recent years. No pitching. No role players. Hank, trading Cano for Penny is not going to help either of those issues. The Yankees need some gritty guys to start getting things done on offense. You know, like a David Eckstein circa 2006. Someone who will energize you by beating out a chopper. The Yankees don't have any of those guys anymore. Also, Mo Rivera still shortens the game by an inning or two, but that doesn't matter when you're lucky to get 5 innings out of your starters. I wouldn't want to face the Yankees in the postseason, but I wouldn't want to have my money on them either. Sorry Hank, maybe next year.
New York Mets (35-36 record; 20-1 to win World Series): You want to talk about being good on paper, say hello to the Mets. How is this team so bad? They have a solid lineup, a decent bullpen headlined by a great closer, and arguably the best pitcher in the game in Johan. What's the deal? You have to consider the Mets a strong candidate to get it together now that Randolph is gone and they can finally close the door to the past. It isn't to say that it was Randolph's fault as much as the Mets needed a jolt to move past last season's collapse and this season's start. Firing Randolph could have been that jolt. They're only 5.5 games back of the Phillies so it's not too far a stretch to say that the Mets could be atop the AL East this time next month. Still though, this team doesn't feel like a World Series winner. They don't have the chemistry, the grit, or the drive that has defined all of the winners from the recent years. They look too much like the NL version of the 2000s Yankees teams.
The Pick
Arizona Diamondbacks (39-34 record; 12-1 to win World Series): This is the scariest team to face in October if you ask me. In a seven game series, you'd be facing Brandon Webb and Dan Haren twice apiece. The staff as a whole sports an ERA under 4 and the best K/BB ratio in the majors at 2.6. If this team struggles, it will not be because the pitching has let them down. The offense has a bunch of young guys who have loads of talent. I like talent come October. Guys like Chris Young and Justin Upton are the ones I'd hate to face late in the season. They're just plain good. And, after all that talk about how bad the bullpen would be, Brandon Lyon has been more than adequate, and setup man Chad Qualls has big time experience and is the veteran you'd love to go to as a setup guy. Basically, I could just see this team riding hot performances from Brandon Webb and Dan Haren to the title. It's like having a hot goalie in hockey during the playoffs. Just a devastating advantage. Plus, Arizona has proven itself as willing to go after big name guys, so watch out for them come trade deadline time to get one more bat. Finally, is there any way that Arizona doesn't make the postseason? That's a pretty big key to winning it all, making the postseason. With the NL West being garbage, I see a cakewalk for the D-Backs. So congratulations Arizona. It's yours to lose, unless one of those pesky favorites comes through.
So there you have it. Arizona at 12 to 1. Stay tuned early next week for the favorites preview. As always, feel free to email me at Eric.Rudin@gmail.com.
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